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Will the Germans Open Fire on the Russians over Kosovo?

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Ambiorix:
Will the Germans Open Fire on the Russians over Kosovo?
From the desk of The Brussels Journal on Wed, 2008-02-20 11:35
http://www.brusselsjournal.com/node/2996#comment-23760
A quote from Prof. Stephen Bainbridge at his blog, 18 February 2008

If Russia decided to oppose Kosovan independence with armed force, could it? A look at a map shows that the demise of the Warsaw Pact and the breakup of the Soviet Union leaves Russia with no obvious land route by which its troops could intervene. With the Russian Air Force’s sizeable inventory of AN-124s, however, one may assume that Russia could airlift some forces into Serbia. […]

An article by George Friedman [...] reminds us that:
[...] [In 1999] The United States prevailed on the Russians to initiate diplomatic contacts [to end the war in Kosovo] and persuade the Serbs that their position was isolated and hopeless. The carrot was that the United States agreed that Russian peacekeeping troops would participate in Kosovo. […] This ended the war, but the Russians were never permitted — let alone encouraged — to take their role in Serbia. The Russians were excluded from the Kosovo Force (KFOR) decision-making process and were isolated from NATO’s main force. When Russian troops took control of the airport in Pristina in Kosovo at the end of the war, they were surrounded by NATO troops.

Friedman argues that this seemingly minor incident had major consequences that continue to reverberate to this day:
The degree to which Yeltsin’s humiliation in Kosovo led to the rise of Vladimir Putin is not fully understood. Putin represented a faction in the intelligence-military community that regarded Kosovo as the last straw. […] If Kosovo is granted independence outside the context of the United Nations, where Russia has veto power, [Putin] will be facing the same crisis Yeltsin did. If he repeats Yeltsin’s capitulation, he will face substantial consequences. […] It is not so much what Putin wants as the consequences for Putin if he does not act. He cannot afford to acquiesce. He will create a crisis.

What sort of crisis? Friedman explores a couple of options, including this scenario:
Assume that Putin would send a battalion or two of troops by air to Belgrade, load them onto trucks and send them toward Pristina, claiming this as Russia’s right under agreements made in 1999. Assume a squadron of Russian aircraft would be sent to Belgrade as well. A Russian naval squadron, including the aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov, already is headed to the Mediterranean. Obviously, this is not a force that could impose anything on NATO. But would the Germans, for example, be prepared to open fire on these troops?
 
If that happened, there are other areas of interest to Russia and the West where Russia could exert decisive military power, such as the Baltic states. If Russian troops were to enter the Baltics, would NATO rush reinforcements there to fight them? The Russian light military threat in Kosovo is that any action there could lead to a Russian reaction elsewhere.

KFOR currently has about 15,000 troops from a whopping 34 nations. Eyeballing the national components, however, suggests that only the US, UK, German, French, and Italian components are likely to have any serious combat capabilities.

So suppose a couple of Russian air deployable battalions fly into Belgrade and then deploy into Northern Kosovo to protect the Serbian enclaves in that area, occupying the bridges over the River Ibar in towns like Mitrovica. How might NATO respond?

One problem is that the USA and UK are already facing serious problems of imperial overstretch. […] US news reports suggest that the US contingent in KFOR consists mainly of National Guard troops. Many of the USA’s active combat units are tied down in Iraq or Afghanistan, preparing to deploy, or recovering from a deployment. If things go south in Kosovo, who goes?

Ludi Milojko:
Don't think it will go that far....Hopefully  :-X

newman:
Germany is so nicked in the head after the last war they'll never, ever, ever start another fight. They'll try to destroy Jews by  diplomatic means but they'll NEVER innitiate a firefight with any country lager than Monaco ever again.

Scriabin:
Germany will do nothing.

They're has-beens, like the rest of Europe.

Ambiorix:

--- Quote from: newman on February 20, 2008, 12:54:20 PM ---Germany is so nicked in the head after the last war they'll never, ever, ever start another fight. They'll try to destroy Jews by  diplomatic means but they'll NEVER innitiate a firefight with any country lager than Monaco ever again.

--- End quote ---
I don't think so. Under NATO-command they'll do whatever the orders are.

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