Do you guys beleive in the Bradley effect

[briann]

I personally believe that it exists... but for a different reason.

There is so much pressure... especially among youth to not appear racists or even conservative.. that people may lie to the telephone pollsters.

[Roadwarrior]

Your explanation could be valid....but I think people nowadays
are not reluctant to give their opinion especially in a private setting.

I dont think there is anything scientific about the so-called Bradley effect ....

It gets its name from Bradley losing at the last minute after he was supposedly ahead in  the polls.

Its an attempt by liberals to attribute a specific election loss by a black to racism.   

If that were true then no black could ever win anything against a white
candidate.

They might as well call it the racist-effect.

[דוד בן זאב אריה]

Yes I do. Obama is getting the simpathy vote. I don't know if it is true this time around I pray that it is.

[Roadwarrior]

To be honest ...I hope it does exist ...in some way
cause that means the polls underestimate Mccains strength
and come election time ...several extra pts will kick in
in favor of Mccain ...

[Fonzworth]

What the hell is the Bradley effect?

[briann]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect

[P J C]

My whole family has always talks about this. It is the biggest subject at the table. I am a 100% believer!

[briann]

I think its not just about blacks... but about Conservatism in general.

I think a similar effect happened with Bush.  Polls just before the election consistently showed him down by 2%
And to many youth... to admit that you prefered Bush was just about the most uncool and evil thing you could do.  And the same is true with Mccain vs. Obama.

I still remember as a kid, telling everyone I was voting against proposition 187 in california (stopped benefits for illegals) as were all my friends, but when I finally got in the booth... I knew that I was lying to myself.  I knew that the proposition was the right thing to do... so I voted for it.

[Americanhero1]

I think its not just about blacks... but about Conservatism in general.

I think a similar effect happened with Bush.  Polls just before the election consistently showed him down by 2%
And to many youth... to admit that you prefered Bush was just about the most uncool and evil thing you could do.  And the same is true with Mccain vs. Obama.

I still remember as a kid, telling everyone I was voting against proposition 187 in california (stopped benefits for illegals) as were all my friends, but when I finally got in the booth... I knew that I was lying to myself.  I knew that the proposition was the right thing to do... so I voted for it.

That is true because when I was in HS people who said they like bush were made fun of

[q_q_]

That is true because when I was in HS people who said they like bush were made fun of

That might have been cause of his name

[Chaim Ben Pesach]

The Bradley effect is when white voters do not admit that they are going to vote against a black candidate. These white voters are afraid that they will be accused of racism. But on election day, they do vote against the black candidate despite what they tell the pollsters. As a result, black candidates appear stronger in the polls than they really are.

I believe that the Bradley effect does exist and probably artificially boosts Barack Hussein Osama in the polls by 4-5%.

However, this year there is something that counters the Bradley effect. Here's how pollsters work: if 10% of all voters in the last presidential election were black, then pollsters will make sure that 10% of their polling samples are black. And that is what they are doing this year. The only problem is the actual number of blacks who will vote this year is almost certainly going to be much higher, perhaps 15% of the total. When you have a black candidate, blacks vote in much higher numbers. This year there is more excitement among blacks than ever before. So pollsters are undercounting the black vote.

In the end, I think the election will be close.

[nessuno]

I'm counting on the people who are afraid to appear politically incorrect when polled. 

[firster555]

So, the swing vote is the "Chicken [deleted] Cowards.

[Roadwarrior]

I would bet that the so-called undecided vote will largely go for Mccain.

How can anyone be undecided at this point ....

They are either idiots or lying.

[Rubystars]

So, the swing vote is the "Chicken S#*T Cowards.

Just because they hide their views doesn't necessarily make them cowards. It could make them smart in wanting to keep their jobs. Some people, like college instructors for example, can't afford to let anyone know they're not in love with multiculturalism.

[nessuno]

So, the swing vote is the "Chicken S#*T Cowards.

Cowards indeed.
The choice is clear.

I recently attended a convention, as a delegate, for my union.
I bet you can guess who they are endorsing.
It was a big Obama rally.
A coworker used her nursing ingenuity and made McCain/Palin buttons.
She made them out of the union's Obama buttons.

Surprisingly - the two of us recieved a lot of    reaction when we wore them.
I think people are a bit cowardly about stating their true feelings about Obama. 

[briann]

The Bradley effect is when white voters do not admit that they are going to vote against a black candidate. These white voters are afraid that they will be accused of racism. But on election day, they do vote against the black candidate despite what they tell the pollsters. As a result, black candidates appear stronger in the polls than they really are.

I believe that the Bradley effect does exist and probably artificially boosts Barack Hussein Osama in the polls by 4-5%.

However, this year there is something that counters the Bradley effect. Here's how pollsters work: if 10% of all voters in the last presidential election were black, then pollsters will make sure that 10% of their polling samples are black. And that is what they are doing this year. The only problem is the actual number of blacks who will vote this year is almost certainly going to be much higher, perhaps 15% of the total. When you have a black candidate, blacks vote in much higher numbers. This year there is more excitement among blacks than ever before. So pollsters are undercounting the black vote.

In the end, I think the election will be close.

Yes, I was thinking the same thing.  But I also think that the Bradley effect will be even Larger than previous years. 

Based upon the fact that everywhere I look, I see kids wearing Obama shirts.  He is the rock star... against a man who in all outward appearances.. typifies the old and stuffy white man.  To say you prefer Mccain to obama in my state is so unbeleivably unpopular and uncool that Ive never heard anyone do it.. unless its in very private conversation. 

I havent seen a SINGLE Mccain bumper sticker..  NOT ONE.  Ive seen 100's of Obama stickers.  Again... this all lends itself to the bradley effect... because there is a spillover of this 'Im gonna show that Im hip' in the phone polls.

[Roadwarrior]

The reason I hate the term is because the liberals
pull out the race card and start making excuses and laying a groundwork
of rationalizations for their eventual defeat ......

They are basically saying if our guy loses....its cause white
people are racists ....

I would think the Bradley effect would also seem to exist in the Undecided
percentages ......there is no way people are undecided at this point
given the extremely polarized nature of this election ..
I think the Undecided vote will break for Mccain in various states

[Xoce]

I agree that it is a conservative/liberal issue.  So many people are brainwashed into thinking they can't be seen in public as being conservative or republican.
The EXIT polls were favoring Kerry in 04.  This means that even AFTER they voted FOR Bush, voters were too scared to be seen in public being un-PC.
It's quite ridiculous.

Also, what is going to ADD to McCain's votes are the lack of McCain stickers/posters.  People who were not planning to vote, or people who are in the middle politically will be sick of being bombarded by Obama t-shirts/buttons and will be energized to vote AGAINST Obama because they'll think no one is voting for McCain.
(When in reality of COURSE people are voting for McCain, they just don't care to design T-shirts and "cool" stickers)
Also, the teenager who wears his Obama T-shirt thinks he has done his job already and won't vote.  In the process of walking around wearing his T-shirt he will be reminding a LOT of people that see his T-shirt to vote McCain.

The best McCain poster is a Obama poster.

[Xoce]

I came across this
"Social desirability bias"

From Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_desirability_bias

"Social desirability bias is a term used in scientific research to describe the tendency of respondents to reply in a manner that will be viewed favorably by others. This will generally take the form of overreporting "good" behavior or underreporting "bad" behavior....

A hypothetical example of social desirability bias would be a study of sexual behavior. When confronted with the question "Do you masturbate? If so, how often?", a respondent may be influenced by the societal taboo of masturbation, and either lie (falsely claiming not to masturbate) or downright refuse to answer the question.

Some areas that are sensitive to participants' interpretations of social desirability:

    * Sexual behavior and fantasies
    * Personal income and earnings
    * Feelings of self-worth and/or powerlessness
    * Excretory functions
    * Compliance with medicinal dosing schedules
    * Religion
    * Patriotism
    * Bigotry and intolerance
    * Intellectual achievements
    * Physical symptomatology
    * Acts of real or imagined physical violence
    * Indicators of "kindness" or "benevolence"
    * Illegal acts

They should also add the social taboo of "voting for a Republican" to their list.
 

[SavetheWest]

it may be a factor but as Chaim said, every black person in the ghetto is going to vote.  Blacks are keeping a low profile generally so as not to endanger their candidate from alienating other voters but they are 99% for Obama.

If felons could vote, this election would definitly be Obamas.

[angryChineseKahanist]

I still have a tendency to say Osama when a negro asks.
Usually, they demand to know if I will vote for osama.
"you vot'n fo osama?"

[Ben Yehuda]

I don't believe in the Bradley effect. I do believe in pseudo-intellectualism.

[Ulli]

I personally believe that it exists... but for a different reason.

There is so much pressure... especially among youth to not appear racists or even conservative.. that people may lie to the telephone pollsters.

Yes I believe in it.