Do Tuesday's elections foreshadow a 2010 Obama effect?

[Americanhero1]

Much was made, some thought too much, about how the outcome of Tuesday's state races would serve as a referendum on President Obama one year after his historic election victory.

Now that the dust has settled, with Republicans capturing governorships in the key states of New Jersey and Virginia, GOP leaders are claiming the results are a turning point, while the White House spin says it was the economy, not the president, that pushed votes.

Attention is already turning to the all-important midterm elections of 2010 and the impact Obama may wield. Grabbing attention this week was a photo on Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio's website. The site used a photo of Obama talking to Gov. Charlie Crist, Rubio’s opponent in the 2010 race for the GOP Senate nomination, to slam Crist's credentials as a conservative. "Get the picture?" reads the photo’s text, "Donate now to stand up for conservative principles."

Rubio and Crist are battling to fill the Senate seat that came up for grabs following Mel Martinez's sudden resignation in August. The tactic by Rubio and his supporters to use Crist's support of Obama's stimulus package appears to be working: The race is tightening in recent polls. However, Crist maintains an estimated 6-to-1 fundraising advantage over Rubio, and has the pledged support of the Republican Party leadership in the race.

On the Democratic side for Florida, a cast of largely unknown contenders is led by a heavy favorite, Rep. Kendrick Meek, who currently represents the state's 17th District in Congress. Interestingly, recent polling shows Crist with a substantial lead over Meek in a head-to-head race, while Meek actually holds a slight advantage over Rubio in popularity statewide.

In Pennsylvania, Sen. Arlen Specter, fearing a tough primary challenge from a candidate supported heavily by conservatives, switched to the Democratic Party earlier this year. Like Crist, Specter antagonized GOP conservatives by supporting Obama's stimulus plan. In switching sides, Specter avoids a 2010 primary faceoff against Pat Toomey, who nearly defeated Specter in the 2004 Republican primary.

Specter still faces a stiff challenge from Rep. Joe Sestak for the Democratic nomination, despite having the backing of the national party. Somewhat ironically, Sestak has been using Specter's support of the '08 McCain/Palin ticket to turn Democratic voters against him in the same manner in which Toomey was gearing up to use Specter's ties to Obama against him with Republican voters.

But while many are suggesting that an "Obama effect" may have influenced Tuesday’s results, the race in New Jersey pitted the largely unpopular Democratic Gov. Corzine — whose approval ratings hovered around 39% going into the election — against Chris Christie, a successful former state attorney general.

Meanwhile, Virginia has a long history of electing governors who are not affiliated with the party in power in the White House. And let's not forget that voters in upstate New York elected Democrat Bill Owens in the traditionally Republican 23rd District, despite an outpouring of support for opponent Doug Hoffman by a slew of well-known conservative heavyweights. The lesson to be learned for both parties may be this: It takes more than the "Obama effect" to sway voters.
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