http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0410/36325.htmlThe Arizona Legislature’s passage of a new hard-line anti-immigration law may force both Democrats and Republicans into a place they don’t want to be: dealing with the contentious, no-win issue of immigration reform in the midst of an election year.
The Arizona bill — passed on a party-line vote by the state’s Republican legislators and signed into law by the Republican governor — has come under intense fire from President Barack Obama and other Democrats in Washington.
But the polarizing issue is fraught with peril for both parties — so much so that, when asked about the politics of it all, former Republican National Committee Chairman Ed Gillespie paraphrases the words of Democratic New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson: “When immigration is an issue, nobody wins.”
Immigration reform advocates say that, without a comprehensive bill from Congress, other states will feel free to follow Arizona’s lead in passing what they consider to be discriminatory, “racial profiling” legislation.
But for Democrats to pass immigration reform before November, party leaders would have to force members from conservative-leaning districts to cast yet another tough vote that could raise the ire of swing voters. But Republicans face longer-term peril — if they continue to push aggressive legislation cracking down on illegal immigrants, Hispanic voters are likely to continue their exodus to the Democratic Party.
South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham — one of the few Republicans willing to remain supportive of legislation that includes a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants — said his colleagues have cooled on the issue as they’ve come to understand the political costs.
“More and more Republicans are coming to grips with the idea that if we don’t solve this problem, we can never be a national player,” Graham said in an interview.
But he was quick to warn that Democrats would do nothing but incite conservative passions if they try to pass an immigration reform bill this year with little bipartisan support.
“If they try to jam a bill through this year because they’re getting pressure from the Hispanic community, I tell you what: They could blow the last chance we’ll have,” he said.
Further, other Republicans said, bringing up an immigration reform bill with uncertain prospects for passage would appear tone-deaf.
“The risk for them is to continue to appear out of touch with the concerns of most Americans, which is jobs,” said Gillespie. “And the only conclusion that a lot of independents will draw is because it’s a sop to their left.”
Still, Gillespie warned his own party to “handle the issue with care.”
“The key for Republicans is to make clear that we are as welcoming of legal immigrants as we are concerned about illegal immigrants,” he said. “We need to be sure we draw that bright-line distinction because too often much of the rhetoric comes across as being anti-immigrant.”
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http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0410/36325.html#ixzz0mFxIwjdUThe difference in the GOP share of the Hispanic vote before and after the first immigration debate is telling: In 2004, President George W. Bush got 44 percent of the Latino vote. In 2008, Sen. John McCain — who had led the charge for reform — got only 31 percent.
Within the GOP, however, elected officials still face immense pressure not to be seen as weak on illegal immigration.
So even McCain has come out in support of the new law in his home state — despite the fact that he, like Graham and Gillespie now, previously warned against being seen as punitive toward Hispanics as he was leading the effort on reform.
McCain describes something close to a crisis in his home state in explaining his decision to move away from reform and to back the Arizona law, but he’s also acting in response to a primary challenge on the right from former Rep. J.D. Hayworth.
And that underscores the Republicans’ problem: How do you keep the right happy without turning off other voters?
With Hispanics now making up the largest minority group in the country and their percentage of the population growing rapidly, the demographic challenge for Republicans is obvious.
“Republicans are going to have to make a decision about whether they want to be a minority party in perpetuity,” is how Rep. Luis Gutierrez (D-Ill.) puts it.
Gutierrez is a leading House advocate for immigration reform. Like immigration reform advocates and some other Democrats, he believes the Arizona law — which requires police officers to question individuals about their immigration status if they have a “reasonable suspicion” that they’re in the country illegally — offers the party an opportunity to revive reform legislation and rally its base.
“Just listen to the way Obama talked about it on Friday,” said Frank Sharry, executive director of America’s Voice and a longtime advocate for comprehensive immigration reform. “I’ve never heard him talk with such urgency about how, in the vacuum left by congressional inaction, we’re going to see more Arizonas. He’s right. Arizona is igniting the debate.”
Or, as Gutierrez said Friday after the bill was signed, “Arizona Republicans have kicked a hornet’s nest on immigration, and it will come back to sting them.”
Poised to lead the charge is Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, who, facing a difficult reelection battle this fall, may be able to galvanize Hispanic support back home in Nevada by pushing the issue to the forefront. Reid indicated to Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) in a meeting last week that he would bring up immigration reform before energy legislation — a reversal of what most Democrats had long anticipated.
But even as progressives seize on the Arizona law, there is little appetite among Democrats from conservative-leaning districts to move forward with what opponents of the legislation call “amnesty.”
After facing tough votes on cap and trade and the health care bill, centrist House Democrats are wary of yet another one that could prove unpopular at home.
“It’s not a tough vote for me at all. I’m not going to vote for amnesty,” said Pennsylvania Rep. Jason Altmire, whose Pittsburgh-area district supported McCain over Obama in 2008. “I’m not going to vote for a path to citizenship or whatever you want to call it.”
Altmire bucked leadership on cap and trade and on health care reform, and he’s got a message for Pelosi on immigration: “She can bring it up, but I’m not going to support it. In my district, that’s not an issue that’s going to get any support at all. When they brought it up in 2007, it took weeks before I heard anything good about the bill.”
“This is a hard case to make,” he said. “It’s not like health care where everybody has a dog in the fight. If you come from where I come from, there is no support at all.”
Other Democrats were not as blunt, but a senior House Democratic leadership aide indicated that there were others in the caucus who shared Altmire’s view.
“Is this what vulnerable Democrats would like to be talking about in the summertime?” asked the aide. “Probably not.”
“Any time spent not talking about the economy and jobs sets us back, the aide added. “Everyone recognizes the importance of doing something on the immigration issue; the system’s broken. But I think not everyone is comfortable discussing it, given all of the other issues we have to defend and discuss with constituents.”
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Topic: 'Nobody wins' on immigration reform (Read 878 times)