Is there a demographic time-bomb in Israel?

[muman613]

I have heard both sides of this question. Originally I believed that there was a demographic time-bomb problem in Israel. For those who don't know what I am talking about I will try to explain. There are Jews who claim that Israel cannot sustain itself in Israel due to the birth-rate of the arab population. According to their understanding they say that eventually the arabs will be a majority in Israel and as a result the Jews will be unable to maintain a Jewish state in an arab majority country.

I have also heard that this scenario is simply a myth perpetuated by the left-wingers in order to allow the give-away of the land of Israel. I remember reading an article on A7 which claimed that the Demographic time-bomb is bunk, and that according to current trends of increased Jewish birth-rates, that the Jews will maintain a majority in the land.

I am interested in what the JTF members think about this time-bomb question.

This article on the Jewish Telegraphic Agencies website http://www.jta.org/news/article/2010/08/02/2740309/is-one-state-solution-an-answer-to-greater-israel-dreams again brings up this question..

...

There should be no misunderstanding, Elitzur cautions: He is talking about a Jewish state with a Jewish majority, like the Israel of today. That, he says, is the big difference between him and the left-wing "one-staters": Where they see a Palestinian state with a Jewish minority, he sees a Jewish state with a Palestinian minority.

But what happens if and when the Palestinians, with their significantly higher birth rate, become the majority? Some suggest major modifications to the Elitzur plan to make sure that doesn't happen.

Hanan Porat, a former Knesset member and leading figure in the Gush Emunim settlement movement, wants Israeli law applied gradually to the West Bank -- first to areas with large Jewish populations, and a decade or a generation later to the rest. Even then, Porat would condition full citizenship for Palestinians on loyalty to the Jewish state expressed in perhaps military or national service. In other words, in Porat's version of the one-state solution, very few Palestinians would have the right to vote, and only in the distant future.

"The attractive leftist vision of the one-state solution may grow up into a rightist monster," observed critic Uri Avnery, one of the earliest and most passionate two-staters on the political left.

...

[muman613]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2004/jan/14/comment

http://www.csmonitor.com/2001/0831/p11s1-coop.html

[MassuhDGoodName]

That fact is at the essence of everything Rabbi Kahane taught us.

[Zelhar]

There are less then 6 million Jews, and I think more than 5 million Arabs in Israel if you count the filth of Gaza, Judea and Samaria. I believe there are about 1.3 Arab muslims Israeli citizens, and there are also many Arab non-citizens who live in Israel illegally and many of them are married to Israeli Arab citizens.

We also face a growing problem of illegal immigrants. The biggest group of these people are Africans black muslims (Sudanese, Eritreans and others) who sneak in from Egypt.

An additional problem is that Arabs are a majority of the population on the Galil and a large minority in the Negev. It is highly likely that in case Israel retreats from Judea and Samaria in favor of an Arab state, then as soon as the last Jew leaves Judea and and Samaria the Arab citizens of Israel will raise a new demand for an autonomy within Israel.

[briann]

There are less then 6 million Jews, and I think more than 5 million Arabs in Israel if you count the filth of Gaza, Judea and Samaria. I believe there are about 1.3 Arab muslims Israeli citizens, and there are also many Arab non-citizens who live in Israel illegally and many of them are married to Israeli Arab citizens.

We also face a growing problem of illegal immigrants. The biggest group of these people are Africans black muslims (Sudanese, Eritreans and others) who sneak in from Egypt.

An additional problem is that Arabs are a majority of the population on the Galil and a large minority in the Negev. It is highly likely that in case Israel retreats from Judea and Samaria in favor of an Arab state, then as soon as the last Jew leaves Judea and and Samaria the Arab citizens of Israel will raise a new demand for an autonomy within Israel.

Im amazed this isnt discussed more.  I think Illegal problem there is a cancer, worse than it is here in the states.  This could truly jeopardize Israel's existence.

[Raulmarrio2000]

Demography is really a problem for the future. But we must remember that most Arabs living in Yesha are only poermanet residents who would gladly leave as soon as an Arab countries is willing to receive them. And the only way Arabs will surrender their project to destroy Israel, and so be willing to receive their brethren who are now invaders in Israel, is to get full controll of Yerushalayim. Once the Dom of the Rock and al-Aqsa are down, Arabs will gladly build their future on Arab land and leave Israel alone. But even the most ardent Zionists here pay little attention to Har Habayt.

[Ari Ben-Canaan]

Demography is really a problem for the future. But we must remember that most Arabs living in Yesha are only poermanet residents who would gladly leave as soon as an Arab countries is willing to receive them. And the only way Arabs will surrender their project to destroy Israel, and so be willing to receive their brethren who are now invaders in Israel, is to get full controll of Yerushalayim. Once the Dom of the Rock and al-Aqsa are down, Arabs will gladly build their future on Arab land and leave Israel alone. But even the most ardent Zionists here pay little attention to Har Habayt.

The Arab League expressively forbids "Palestinians" from being made natural citizens by all Arab countries.  Jordan is the only country, that I can remember, which has gone against this decry, but Jordan has also been taking away citizenship from "Palestinians" it has awarded citizenship to in the past.  The Arab League's reasoning is "to prevent the 'Palestinian' national identity from dissolving".

[Lewinsky Stinks, Dr. Brennan Rocks]

It is well-known that devout Jews have the highest birthrate in the world, even higher than that of Islamoroaches.

In any case, this would be a moot point if all the Gayrabs were kicked out of the Holy Land.

[Aces High]

It is well-known that devout Jews have the highest birthrate in the world, even higher than that of Islamoroaches.

In any case, this would be a moot point if all the Gayrabs were kicked out of the Holy Land.

I was thinking the exact same thing!!  It would be a moot point!

[TruthSpreader]

It is well-known that devout Jews have the highest birthrate in the world, even higher than that of Islamoroaches.

In any case, this would be a moot point if all the Gayrabs were kicked out of the Holy Land.

Don't worry. We will throw all the Arats back to their Arab ratholes soon enough. 

[Kahane-Was-Right BT]

There are less then 6 million Jews, and I think more than 5 million Arabs in Israel if you count the filth of Gaza, Judea and Samaria. I believe there are about 1.3 Arab muslims Israeli citizens, 

There are NOT that many Arabs in Judea Samaria and Gaza.   That number is greatly inflated due to the PLO propaganda, however, there surely is a demographic timebomb.   It doesn't currently add up to 5 million Arabs, but it certainly is a grave danger to us.

[Yaacov Ben Yehuda]

I beleive theres about 1 million arabs vs. 5 million Jews in the land of Israel.  their outnumbered by 5 to 1

[Ari Ben-Canaan]

http://israelmatzav.blogspot.com/2010/06/unexpectedly-number-of-israeli-arabs.html

Unexpectedly, the number of 'Israeli Arabs' begins to decline

There was a piece in The Marker - Haaretz's business section - on Sunday that reported that the number of 'Israeli Arab' births has declined. Yoram E sent me that piece in English and I am posting it below.

    Israeli Arabs – Modernity Up, Birth Rate Down
    Adam Reuter, CEO of “Financial Immunities” (consulting 500 Israeli companies – 40% of Israel’s GDP)
    “The Marker” (Ha’aretz’) business daily, June 20, 2010
    http://www.themarker.com/tmc/article.jhtml?ElementId=/ibo/repositories/stories/m1_2000/skira20100620_52133696.xml

    A dramatic decline in Israeli Arab fertility rate has been documented during the last 15 years, while secular Jewish fertility rate has surged.

    In addition, there has been a drastic increase in the rate of returning expatriate Israelis, due to the positive performance of Israel’s economy in face of the global meltdown. The number of Olim (immigrants) has grown due to the same economic reason. The conclusion is clear – in defiance of politically correct demographic dooms day projections - the proportion of Israeli Arabs, within Israel’s overall population, is expected to decline.

    A thorough demographic research/audit has been conducted in recent years by the America-Israel Demographic Research Group (AIDRG), which includes experts in the areas of statistics, mathematics, computers, auditing and economics. AIDRG’s groundbreaking findings enhance optimism and could improve planning in the areas of Aliya, education, economy, human services, water allocation to the PA, diplomacy and national security. AIDRG findings pull the rug from under the feet of unwarranted Arab-Phobia, which has been nurtured by the illogical fear of Arab demography.

    AIDRG findings are presented, on a daily basis, to movers and shakers in the US and (especially) in Israel, including “The Herzliya Conference”, the Jewish Agency Board of Governors, the National Security Council, Military Intelligence, Knesset Committees, editorial boards, Prime Minister Office, Cabinet Members, leading academic institutions, leading businessmen, etc.

    The number of annual Israeli Arab births has stabilized, during 1995-2009, around 39,000. At the same time – and in contrast to normative demographics – the annual number of Israeli Jewish births has surged by 50% - from 80,400 to 121,000. Jewish births accounted to 69% of total births in 1995, 74% in 2006 and more than 75% in 2009.

    In 2010, Israeli Arabs constitute 20% of the total population, 3.5% of whom are residents (and not Israeli citizens) from the eastern part of Jerusalem. Therefore, Israeli Arab citizens account to 16.5% of the voting population. Moreover, Israeli Druz, who serve with distinction in the Israeli military, are a distinct ethnic and religious Muslim sector – which is not Arab – amounting to 2% of the population. Thus, Israeli Arabs account to 14.5% of the voting population, 2% of which are Christian Arabs.

    In contrast to politically-correct projections, since 1948, the proportion of the Arab population has not grown substantially. In fact, it is expected to decline as a result of the impact of modernity and the significant increase in secular Jewish fertility.

    Israeli-born secular Jewish women, and especially descendants of the more than one million Olim (immigrants) from the former USSR, are chiefly responsible for the enhanced Jewish demography. The latter arrived to the Jewish State with a typical Russian fertility rate of 1.2 births per woman, switching to 2.3 births per woman. Furthermore, the second and third generation Israeli-born secular Jewish women have already reached 2.6 births.

    From a 6 births gap between Arab and Jewish fertility rates in 1969, the gap has shrunk to 0.7 (3.5:2. in 2009. The fertility trend indicates convergence at 3 births per Arab and Jewish women, with a current 3.1 births (and trending upward) for Israeli-born Jewish women (including religious women).

    AIDRG has employed geometric – and not linear – progression analysis, concluding that Jewish demography benefits from a powerful tailwind.

    Migration – including emigrants and returnees - has played a key role in setting the Jewish-Arab demographic balance. 20,000 Olim (immigrants) arrived in 2007, 16,000 in 2008, 15,000 in 2009 and 16,000 are expected to arrive in 2010. The number of returning expatriates has increased: 11,000-12,000 annually, equaling the number of emigrants (10% of whom are Israeli Arabs). Therefore, Israel’s Jewish population benefits from a 16,000 net annual immigration.

    The rate of net-immigration is expected to rise significantly due to economy-driven migration. According to a recent Australian study, Israel has fared economically – during the global economic meltdown - better than most countries. Immigration to Israel has been generated, usually, from countries with a lower GDP per capita. The last two years have improved Israel’s GDP per capita in relation to most countries, including Russia, Ukraine, Argentina, France, Britain and even the USA, which are platforms of prospective Aliya (immigration to Israel). Israel’s IRS Rule # 169 entices immigration of wealthy Jews and the return of wealthy expatriates. In addition, Israel has activated a special incentive plan to absorb former “brain drain” emigrants. Consequently, one can assume that the level of net annual immigration will be – at least – 20,000 and that the proportion of Israel’s Arab population will decrease gradually.

    The substantial decline in Arab fertility – which also characterizes all Muslim countries - has been a derivative of rapid and successful modernity/Westernization process. Israeli Arabs have been impressively integrated into Israel’s infrastructures of education, medicine, health, employment, finance, trade, agriculture, arts, culture, politics and sports. Arab women study more years and minimize teen-pregnancy. They develop career mentality, experience less reproductive years and their median wedding-age has peaked. Israeli Arab life-expectancy has reached an all-time high, which has expanded the older Arab population, thus increasing death-rate and decreasing natural growth rate (birth rate minus death rate).

    According to a Gallup study, Jewish and Arab fertility preferences trend toward conversion, with the Jewish preference trending upward and the Arab preference trending downward.

Hmmm.

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 1:16 AM

[Ari Ben-Canaan]

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3828334,00.html

A man on a mission

Former Israeli diplomat Yoram Ettinger out to debunk Israel’s ‘demographic myth’

Yigal Walt
Published:    01.01.10, 14:12 / Israel News
   
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When Yoram Ettinger speaks his voice booms with conviction and his eyes are alight – however, one is bound to be persuaded, not to mention stunned, mostly by the figures and conclusions he presents.

 
The former diplomat is part of an American-Israeli research team devoted to debunking prevalent demographic views regarding Israel’s future; the group’s ground-breaking research paints a much rosier picture, predicting a solid Jewish majority in the region for years to come.

 
The figures painstakingly collected and analyzed by Ettinger and his colleagues are startling, particularly for Israelis who for years have been warned of the demographic sword hanging over the Jewish State’s future. The data point to grossly exaggerated Palestinian growth predictions, statistical flaws resulting in inaccurate figures, steadily growing Jewish birthrates, and a dramatically declining Arab-Israeli birthrate.

 
Ettinger has been tirelessly presenting the research to leading Israeli policymakers and other influential figures nationwide. In an interview with Ynetnews he recounts some of the astonished responses he has encountered during his quest; this includes a taken aback Defense Minister Ehud Barak, who was presented with the data during the previous government’s term in office.

 
“Barak told me: ‘Until I saw this presentation I didn’t know the facts…it would be good to present it soon to (then-Prime Minister) Ehud Olmert and to (then-Foreign Minister) Tzipi Livni, who still don’t know the facts,’” Ettinger says.

 
‘As a Jew, I will sleep better at night’

The former diplomat says that getting the demographic story straight is crucial for decision makers, regardless of their political views.

 
Possessing a more realistic understanding of Israel’s demographic future enables political leaders to make decisions that are not based on an unfounded sense of doom, he says, adding that senior officials who hold vastly different political views than him nonetheless embraced the findings he has presented.

 
“Major General (Res.) Shlomo Gazit asked that I present my information to his colleagues, senior military figures and academicians, despite the very large differences in our worldview,” Ettinger says.

 
Similarly favorable reactions were voiced by former National Security Advisor Giora Eiland, he says. “He clearly said: ‘You have drastically changed my demographic perception,” Ettinger recounts.

 
One of the most memorable responses Ettinger recalls came from former Finance Minister and Labor Party stalwart Avraham Shochat.

 
“After seeing the figures he told me: ‘While you are never going to transform me into a hawk, I’m very grateful to you because due to your findings, as a Jew, I will sleep much better at night from now on,” Ettinger says

 
‘No room for fatalism’

The figures presented by Ettinger seem to be unmistakable, and their immense significance begs the question of why decision-makers themselves have not embarked on such research before in order to challenge common perceptions.

 
“This reality shouldn’t surprise anyone,” Ettinger says. “The demographic issue is a symptom of the way decision-makers act on many issues.”

 
Similarly to the conception that led to the Yom Kippur War, Israeli politicians tend to rely on commonly accepted conceptions instead of attempting to question reality, he says.

 
“To my regret, usually only a crisis wakes up the sleeping people,” Ettinger says, adding that the failure to challenge the demographic myth also reflects Israel’s current leadership crisis.

 
“We are facing a leadership drought…and it’s easier for decision-makers to continue navigating on automatic pilot, rather than to look for new approaches,” he says.

 
Ettinger says the conclusions of the research are highly significant, clear and unequivocal.

 
“Because Jews are not doomed to become a minority between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean, there is no room for fatalism in our process of policy-making,” he says. “When policy-makers, military leaders, investors, or potential immigrants evaluate the future of the Jewish State optimistically, rather than fatalistically, this is the difference between growth and eventual oblivion.”

 
“The bottom line of the study is that anybody who attempts to deploy demographic fatalism in order to scare Jews into excessive concessions is either dramatically mistaken or outrageously misleading, “Ettinger concludes. “It is absolutely legitimate to call for a retreat on moral, democratic or security grounds, yet it is absolutely immoral to call for such a retreat on demographic grounds.”

[Ari Ben-Canaan]

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3808053,00.html

President Clinton, you're wrong!

In contrast to Clinton's statement, demography does not threaten Israel

Yoram Ettinger
Published:    11.20.09, 00:45 / Israel Opinion
   
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On November 15, 2009, former President Clinton stated in Jerusalem: "Two things remain unchanged since 1993 – geography and demographics. Palestinians have more children than Israelis can have or import."

 
Clinton's intentions are positive. However, he is mistaken and misleading, while trying to convince Israelis to support a policy (withdrawal to the 1967 lines), which could determine the fate of the Jewish State: Oblivion or survival.

 
Hawks and doves would concur that public debate is dysfunctional when employing invalid numbers in order to frighten Israel into adopting a potentially-dangerous policy. Hawks and doves are aware that demographic-fatalism erodes confidence in Israel's cause and in Israel's steadfastness. It minimizes options and produces hasty decisions concerning critical national security issues. Decisions based on erroneous assumptions yield erroneous policy. Public debate should distance itself from baseless assumptions and position itself upon well-documented data.

 
In contrast to Clinton's statement, Israel's Jewish demography has been enhanced since 1993. A solid and a long-term 67% Jewish majority, west of the Jordan River (without Gaza) is documented by birth, death and migration records of the Palestinian Health and Education Ministry and Election Commission, as well as Israel's Border Police (which acts like the American INS), the World Bank and the Israeli and Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics. In 2009, the Jewish population benefits from a substantial demographic tailwind, which could expand its majority.

 
And, here are the facts:

   1. According to Israel's Central Bureau of Statistics, the number of annual Jewish births has increased by 45% from 1995 (80,400) to 2008 (117,000), in spite the cuts of child allowances – a global rarity. The number of Arab births within pre-1967 Israel has stabilized, around 39,000, during the same period.
   2. The Jewish tailwind has persisted during the first eight months of 2009: 77,797 Jewish births, which amount to over 75% of total births within pre-1967 Israel, compared with 69% in 1995.
   3. The significant decline in Arab fertility rate reflects a significantly improved standard of living, resulting from successful integration into Israel's infrastructures of health, education, employment, commerce, politics, media, sports, culture and the arts. The Arab-Jewish fertility gap was reduced from six births per woman in 1969 to 0.7 in 2008.
   4. The Jewish secular sector – and especially the Olim (immigrants) from the USSR – is chiefly responsible for the upward trend of Jewish demography. The one million Soviet Olim arrived with a typical Russian fertility rate of one birth per woman, but they have adopted the typical secular Jewish fertility rate of 2-3 births per woman. In addition, Israel's yuppies are switching over from the European rate of 1-2 births to 3-4 births per woman.
   5. A September 2006 World Bank survey of education in Judea, Samaria and Gaza documented a 32% distortion of Arab births by the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics. According to the Bank, the Arab demographic decline resulted from a drop in fertility and a rise in emigration.
   6. The decline in Arab population growth follows a 20-year surge, which was a result of the post-1967 access to Israel's health infrastructure. The decline has been caused by urbanization (from a 70% rural to a 70% urban population in Judea and Samaria), unprecedented expansion of the education system, especially among women, and family planning.
   7. Net-emigration has accelerated the fall of the Arab population growth rate in Judea and Samaria. From 1950 to 2009, there have been only six years of net-immigration. Net-emigration skyrocketed during the 1950-1967 Jordanian occupation, slowed down drastically following 1967, in response to the enhancement of health, education and employment, surged as a result of the 2000 Intifada and shifted to a higher gear in 2006, due to the rise of Hamas and the Hamas-PLO war.
   8. The Arab fertility rate in Judea and Samaria declined to four births per woman and is trending downward. According to the UN Population Division, the decline typifies all Muslim countries other than Afghanistan and Yemen. For example, Jordan (a "twin-sister" of Judea and Samaria) has three births per woman, Iran – 1.7, Egypt – 2.5, Syria – 3.5 and Algeria – 1.8 births per woman.
   9. The Judea and Samaria Arab population of 1.55 million – and not 2.5 million as claimed by the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics – was documented in December 2008: a 66% distortion!

 
Theodore Herzl (1900) and David Ben Gurion (1947) did not subordinate their Zionist vision to the prophets of demographic doom – Simon Dubnov and Prof. Roberto Bacchi – although Jews were a minority of 8% and 33% respectively. In 2009, Israel's leaders should refrain from subordinating the future of the Jewish State to Clinton's pernicious demographic fatalism.

[Zelhar]

There are less then 6 million Jews, and I think more than 5 million Arabs in Israel if you count the filth of Gaza, Judea and Samaria. I believe there are about 1.3 Arab muslims Israeli citizens, and there are also many Arab non-citizens who live in Israel illegally and many of them are married to Israeli Arab citizens.

We also face a growing problem of illegal immigrants. The biggest group of these people are Africans black muslims (Sudanese, Eritreans and others) who sneak in from Egypt.

An additional problem is that Arabs are a majority of the population on the Galil and a large minority in the Negev. It is highly likely that in case Israel retreats from Judea and Samaria in favor of an Arab state, then as soon as the last Jew leaves Judea and and Samaria the Arab citizens of Israel will raise a new demand for an autonomy within Israel.

Im amazed this isnt discussed more.  I think Illegal problem there is a cancer, worse than it is here in the states.  This could truly jeopardize Israel's existence.

In Israeli media it is discussed in a way- basically there is a ceaseless propaganda in favor of letting illegal aliens with children to become permanent residents. And also in favor of letting the thousands of Africans who flood our border to stay.

[✡ Hindu Zionist ॐ]

Geographic size of israel is like Mumbai i think. Mumbai itself houses a population of 14 million. So there is still lot of time for demographic time bomb to explode in Israel. yet, Israel has to grab lands from other countries which actually belongs to itself only.

[Zelhar]

Geographic size of israel is like Mumbai i think. Mumbai itself houses a population of 14 million. So there is still lot of time for demographic time bomb to explode in Israel. yet, Israel has to grab lands from other countries which actually belongs to itself only.

Israel is larger than mumbai by a factor of ~50. Actually Israel has very similar population density to India: 365 per sqkm in Israel vs 360 in India.