http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/2011/12/31/obradovich-with-just-2-days-left-to-go-santorum-has-the-hot-hand/ Obradovich: With just 2 days left to go, Santorum has the hot hand
Kathie Obradovich
10:44 PM, Dec 31, 2011
Categories: Caucus Insider, Kathie Obradovich
Kathie Obradovich
Political columnist
More posts by Kathie Obradovich
The deck has been reshuffled in the final days of the Republican presidential campaign in Iowa, and there’s still one more hand to play out on caucus night.
Rick Santorum, who hasn’t held so much as a ten-spot through months of campaigning in Iowa, is suddenly drawing aces. If the trends reported today in the Register’s Iowa Poll continue, Santorum is in position to win the big pot come Tuesday night.
The Register’s pollster, J. Ann Selzer of Selzer & Co., said Saturday that she can’t remember seeing such a dramatic surge for a previous caucus candidate in the final days of polling. Santorum started at 10 percent on Tuesday night among likely GOP caucusgoers. He rocketed to 22 percent by the end of polling Friday, just 1 percentage point behind Mitt Romney. The four-day average puts him in third place at 15 percent, but he’s on fire, while Romney has held steady and Ron Paul has gone cold.
Romney could still win on Tuesday night. Based on the Iowa Poll’s trend lines, Romney seems like a much better bet than Paul. Not only that, Romney is campaigning in Iowa through the crucial final weekend, while Paul is pulling out until Monday. Paul started the week neck-and-neck with Romney, but by Friday had dropped 13 percentage points under a barrage of negative advertising.No matter who gets the most votes on caucus night, the crown typically goes to the candidate who beats expectations. In that sense, Santorum may have already won. He was dead last among candidates competing in Iowa in most polls through 2011. Some candidates who were beating him in the polls have since dropped out, but he has soldiered on. His rise is nothing short of remarkable, even if he lands in third place.
The former Pennsylvania senator embodies the old political saw: Work like hell and get lucky at the end. He’s logged over 100 days in Iowa, more than any other candidate, toiling in virtual obscurity. Caucusgoers are traditionally inclined to reward such persistent courting — but they seemed unsure Santorum would make it to the church, let alone the altar. Suddenly, lightning struck, in the form of a CNN poll released Wednesday that showed Santorum in third place.
Selzer said her polling, which started on Tuesday, didn’t show Santorum catching fire until after CNN’s poll came out, with an accompanying stampede of media attention. There’s a difference in methodology between the two polls — CNN surveyed registered Republicans, while Selzer also includes registered independents who intend to participate in the caucuses.
Voters apparently responded to the new information suggesting Santorum was more viable than they had previously thought.
Dean Fisher of Garwin, a Republican I talked to at a Santorum event in Ames on Friday, said he had been torn between Santorum and Michele Bachmann, both of whom appealed to his conservative values. He said Santorum’s surge in the polls persuaded him to choose the former senator. “It seems to be coalescing around him,” said Fisher, who is running for the Iowa House.
Santorum does better than his rivals with evangelicals, at 23 percent, but this closely scrutinized bloc of voters is by no means united behind him. Paul and Romney each get 18 percent from voters who consider themselves born-again Christians. Santorum is only 1 percentage point ahead of Paul with caucusgoers who describe themselves as “very conservative,” but he leads with those who are “very socially conservative” and with those who are strong supporters of the tea party.
His sleeper status until the final week has shielded him, for the most part, from negative attacks by opponents. He hasn’t been a target in the debates, and little time remains for trash talk to take hold. If he does well in Iowa, he’ll take his turn as a punching bag. It remains to be seen whether Santorum can do better than the 2008 GOP caucus winner, Mike Huckabee, at catapulting himself beyond Iowa.
Polls are by definition a snapshot, and the target won’t stop moving until all the votes are cast on caucus night. Romney and Paul have bigger campaign organizations than Santorum, and both of them have a lot more chips. Newt Gingrich or Rick Perry may still have a card or two up their sleeves. Santorum’s got the hot hand — we’ll soon see how well he plays it.
For more details about the Iowa Poll, see DesMoinesRegister.com/poll.
Topic: The most accurate poll in Iowa mo with Santorum. Since Fri Paul running 3rd (Read 1948 times)