The 2004 Vote: Anti-Bush Rather than Pro-Kerry
Bush quickly lost the Arab vote, and trust, following Sept. 11, 2001, when he ordered the rounding up of thousands of Arabs without charges and unleashed his “war on terror,” which many Arabs and Muslims saw as a war on Arabs and Muslims.
The USA Patriot Act, Guatanamo Bay, torture and the use of secret evidence against suspects didn’t go down well with the Arab voter, especially after Bush’s broken promise of 2000. In his second debate with Al Gore that October, Bush had decried the fact that “Arab-Americans are racially profiled in what is called secret evidence. People are stopped, and we have to do something about that.” He did: he institutionalized the practice. Bush’s unwavering support of Israel didn’t help.
In 2004, as I noted above, Zogby polling showed Arab American voters favoring Bush by a 10-to-1 margin, though it was not enough for Kerry to dent the Evangelical vote that tipped Bush into the winning column.
The 2008 Vote: Obama Ahead of McCain by Wide Margin
In September 2008, Zogby International released a poll that showed Barack Obama easily beating John McCain, 54% to 33%. [See details of the polling results.
Muslim Arabs in the sample of 501 picked Obama over McCain, 84% to 4%, with third-party candidates taking the rest. McCain did better among Catholic Arab Americans, most of whom are of Lebanese descent, winning that category by 53% over Obama’s 31%. Among registered independents, Obama and McCain split with 44% each.
Another significant finding by the poll: 46% of Arab Americans are now registered Democratic, the highest rate since Zogby began polling in 1996. Arab Americans registered Republicans have fallen to 20%, the lowest rate since 1996. Independents are at 19%, compared with 23% in 1996.