Author Topic: true mortality rate; limitations of exponential growth in physical reality  (Read 87 times)

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Offline Ben Yehuda

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sw299jWBav8&feature=youtu.be

Exponential growth models of physical phenomena only apply within limited regions, as unbounded growth is not physically realistic. Although growth may initially be exponential, the modelled phenomena will eventually enter a region in which previously ignored negative feedback factors become significant (leading to a logistic growth model) or other underlying assumptions of the exponential growth model, such as continuity or instantaneous feedback, break down.

Italy- so far the worst case regarding COVID-19- is already on the downslope of their curve. They currently report approximately 7500 deaths due to coronavirus. It would be simplistic but fairly accurate at this point to multiply this number by two- 15,0000 deaths due to coronavirus can be expected in Italy.

For perspective, take a look at this webpage:

 https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

Offline Ben Yehuda

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The source for the statement on exponential growth follows:

[Meadows, Donella H; Meadows, Dennis L; Randers, Jørgen; Behrens III, William W (1972). The Limits to Growth; A Report for the Club of Rome's Project on the Predicament of Mankind. New York: Universe Books. ISBN 0876631650. Retrieved 26 November 2017.]

Offline Kahane-Was-Right BT

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sw299jWBav8&feature=youtu.be

Exponential growth models of physical phenomena only apply within limited regions, as unbounded growth is not physically realistic. Although growth may initially be exponential, the modelled phenomena will eventually enter a region in which previously ignored negative feedback factors become significant (leading to a logistic growth model) or other underlying assumptions of the exponential growth model, such as continuity or instantaneous feedback, break down.

Italy- so far the worst case regarding COVID-19- is already on the downslope of their curve. They currently report approximately 7500 deaths due to coronavirus. It would be simplistic but fairly accurate at this point to multiply this number by two- 15,0000 deaths due to coronavirus can be expected in Italy.

For perspective, take a look at this webpage:

 https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

Italy is on the downslope because they locked the country down 2 weeks ago.  That's the whole point of doing so.   
The exponential growth only happens when we do nothing about it.