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General Category => General Discussion => Topic started by: Cyberella on September 17, 2008, 08:37:31 PM
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Shock Poll: Jews Now Favor McCain in New York, 54-32
John Podhoretz - 09.17.2008 - 6:17 PM
The Siena poll, one of the two key polls of New York state voters, has come out with its monthly snapshot of the presidential race in the Empire State. And it’s stunning. It is remarkable, though not eye-opening, that John McCain is now only 5 points behind Barack Obama, 46-41 – not shocking because polls have narrowed to similar margins in New Jersey. (It should be noted, however, that according to a Rasmussen poll released yesterday, Obama is leading in New York by 55-42.)
No, the shocking detail has to do with a wild, 35-point swing toward McCain among Jewish voters. Obama led among them by a margin of 50-37 in August. This month, McCain is actually leading Obama by a margin of 54 percent to 32 percent.
Siena polled 626 likely voters this month. Of those, according to Steve Greenberg, the spokesman for the Siena poll, 77 were Jews, or 12 percent of the sample. That is Siena’s best guess of the size of the Jewish vote in New York state in November. With a sample size that small, the margin of error for the Jewish voter sample is plus-or-minus 11 points.
That means the poll could be off by as many as 11 points in either direction — i.e., McCain could be leading by as little as 11 points or by as many as 33.
The only difference between the September poll and the August poll as a matter of methodology is that in September, Siena polled likely voters, whereas in August it only polled registered voters.
The poll could, of course, be an outlier. But if it even begins to approximate the truth, it is huge news. No Republican has scored more than 39 percent of the Jewish vote in modern times, and that was Ronald Reagan in 1980, following a series of missteps by the Carter administration. These sorts of numbers for McCain have implications in two other states particularly — Florida and Pennsylvania.
In Florida, the implications are obvious. Obama’s own Jewish organizers in Florida are telling the campaign they are finding profound resistance to him, particularly in South Florida. The polling overall there seems to be moving inexorably in McCain’s direction, which is necessary for him; it is nearly impossible to see how he can win the election if he loses Florida.
But what about Pennsylvania? That is a state it appears Obama must win. There are, it is estimated, more than 200,000 Jewish voters in Pennsylvania, a state John Kerry won by 140,000 votes. If we assume Pennsylvania’s 200,000 voting Jews voted in the same way as Jews nationwide in 2004 and went 76-24 for Kerry, we can attribute 150,000 Jewish votes to Kerry, his entire margin of victory plus seven percent. Now imagine if that number had been closer to 50-50. Kerry would have received 100,000 Jewish votes rather than 150,000. Bush would have received 100,000 Jewish votes rather than 50,000. Kerry’s margin of victory would then have shrunk to 40,000 votes.
It appears Obama may have a tougher time in Pennsylvania than Kerry did because of his difficulty attracting the ethnic white vote in the western part of the state. If there is a Jewish swing away from him as well, he really could lose there. And if he loses there and loses Ohio, he is sunk. Ohio has approximately 80,000 Jewish voters, so a swing away from Obama to a 50-50 race would cost him 25,000 votes Kerry presumably received in 2004 — and in a state that Bush won by 121,000 votes.
We’ll need more data from two other states with a significant Jewish population to allow for a measurable sample size in a poll – Florida and California – and a polling firm willing to break out the Jewish vote as Siena has, to see whether this is just statistical smoke or whether Obama has a brushfire he needs to put out somehow before it consumes him.
http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/index.php/jpodhoretz/31061
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YES :dance: :) :dance: :)
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GREAT NEWS
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Keep talking to people don't give up. Let's see if those pro-McCain margins can be increased.
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I saw disgusting coverage of Jews in south Florida working hard to Obama elected. They were showing scenes from an "information session" where pro-Obama Jews were promoting their candidate to mostly older Jews. They had some Jewish girl step up and say "Let's do our best to get BARUCH Obama elected"!!!!
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If we win NY ...you can put a fork in Obambi
In order to suppress his support even more, Jews MUST be told about his comments that:
1) Hamas has "legitimate" claims
2) Israel is a "constant sore" on American foreign policy
3) Wrights comments about the "so-called state of Israel"
and Israel is a "dirty" word ....
4) His associations with Farrakhan and Edward Said
5) No one has suffered as much as the Palestinians
He is getting a complete media pass on all this.
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I knew it. Ive always said, self hating Hollywood Jews are a small BUT VOCAL minority.
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Very encouraging news!
Even if John McCain gets half the Jewish vote in Florida and Pennsylvania, I think he has a good chance of winning both states.
The " Jews for Palin " and " Jews against Obama " efforts in these two states are critical.
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Deep down no self respecting Jew wants to vote for Barack Hussein Obama... only the lowest and most vile Jews on Earth would support Obama,
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Deep down no self respecting Jew wants to vote for Barack Hussein Obama... only the lowest and most vile Jews on Earth would support Obama,
Many of these vile creatures were raising money for Barack Hussein Obama in Hollywood last night. It's bad enough to support the hideous B.H. Obama. Giving him financial support and campaigning for him is at or close to sewer level.
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neat ;D
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And the Jewish Left still thinks Obama is not only more atractive to Jews then McCain but he is more pro Israel. :laugh: :fist:
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If we win NY ...you can put a fork in Obambi
In order to suppress his support even more, Jews MUST be told about his comments that:
1) Hamas has "legitimate" claims
2) Israel is a "constant sore" on American foreign policy
3) Wrights comments about the "so-called state of Israel"
and Israel is a "dirty" word ....
4) His associations with Farrakhan and Edward Said
5) No one has suffered as much as the Palestinians
He is getting a complete media pass on all this.
You forgot Tony Resko, the evil Quranimal that bribed him and collected money for murderers, like PLO. >:(
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I fail to see the shocking part in this "Shock Poll", sounds just like sanity for Jews to choose someone who isn't working around the clock against them.
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I fail to see the shocking part in this "Shock Poll", sounds just like sanity for Jews to choose someone who isn't working around the clock against them.
Betsalel,
You do realize that historically Jews have voted Democrat. This is shocking that finally it seems some have been waking up to the truth which the Democrats don't want them to know.
muman613
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The hilarious thing about this is that the Obama campaign was saying that the were going to run a 50 state campaign. That they were going to win in Colorado and Montana and Wyoming and North Carolina.
Now, Obama is having trouble holding on to New York and New Jersey.
What a fool!
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Now my observation the kikes the ones with large hook noses tend to be Hussein supporters.The better looking Jews the handsome men and attractive women vote McCain /Palin i find this very strange
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hey, i have a hook nose and don't support McCain-Palin
Don't judge people with hook noses... :'( :P
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hey, i have a hook nose and don't support McCain-Palin
Don't judge people with hook noses... :'( :P
:laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: no you have a aqualine nose :)