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General Category => General Discussion => Topic started by: briann on November 04, 2008, 01:16:04 PM

Title: VERY VERY VERY LAST POLL!! (BO up by 1.9%)
Post by: briann on November 04, 2008, 01:16:04 PM: http://www.hillaryclintonforum.net/discussion/showthread.php?t=40547

All the last polls (in the last 24 hours) have all tightened.

Final Battleground Vote Projections (Tarrance) is the last and final poll... and they attempt to project who the undecideds will vote for.

Battleground Vote Projections, adjusted for likely voters.

Tarrance Projection

Barack Obama 50.2%
John McCain 48.3%
Bob Barr 0.9%
Ralph Nader 0.6%
Title: Re: VERY VERY VERY LAST POLL!! (BO up by 1.9%)
Post by: eb22 on November 04, 2008, 01:59:33 PM: This national poll appears to be the most favorable for the McCain/ Palin ticket. If by chance the 1.9 % is on the money, its possible that McCain/ Palin can still win the Electoral College.
Title: Re: VERY VERY VERY LAST POLL!! (BO up by 1.9%)
Post by: Chaim Ben Pesach on November 04, 2008, 02:05:20 PM: Tarrance is a Republican pollster.
Title: Re: VERY VERY VERY LAST POLL!! (BO up by 1.9%)
Post by: briann on November 04, 2008, 02:42:37 PM: Quote from: Chaim Ben Pesach on November 04, 2008, 02:05:20 PM
Tarrance is a Republican pollster.

Yes, Im aware of that. But they Nailed it in 2004. I think the key from one poll to another is how they weight the percentage of Dems v. Repubs.
Title: Re: VERY VERY VERY LAST POLL!! (BO up by 1.9%)
Post by: Dr. Dan on November 04, 2008, 02:44:03 PM: Quote from: briann on November 04, 2008, 02:42:37 PM
Quote from: Chaim Ben Pesach on November 04, 2008, 02:05:20 PM
Tarrance is a Republican pollster.

Yes, Im aware of that. But they Nailed it in 2004. I think the key from one poll to another is how they weight the percentage of Dems v. Repubs.

did they nail it in 2000, 1996 or 1992? How about 1988? or 1984?
Title: Re: VERY VERY VERY LAST POLL!! (BO up by 1.9%)
Post by: briann on November 04, 2008, 02:51:49 PM: Quote from: Dr. Dan on November 04, 2008, 02:44:03 PM
Quote from: briann on November 04, 2008, 02:42:37 PM
Quote from: Chaim Ben Pesach on November 04, 2008, 02:05:20 PM
Tarrance is a Republican pollster.

Yes, Im aware of that. But they Nailed it in 2004. I think the key from one poll to another is how they weight the percentage of Dems v. Repubs.

did they nail it in 2000, 1996 or 1992? How about 1988? or 1984?

No... they are like very other poll... imperfect and prone to bias... but this poll and all the other polls have NOT been adjusted for the 'Bradley' effect. However... all the polls do point to Tightening.... which is important as it gives us an idea of which direction the undecideds are braking towards.
Title: Re: VERY VERY VERY LAST POLL!! (BO up by 1.9%)
Post by: Jasmina on November 04, 2008, 03:30:42 PM: I pray to G-d that Obama will loose!
Title: Re: VERY VERY VERY LAST POLL!! (BO up by 1.9%)
Post by: Tacitus on November 04, 2008, 03:36:41 PM: damn barrack hussein obama damn him >:(
Title: Re: VERY VERY VERY LAST POLL!! (BO up by 1.9%)
Post by: CorrieDeservedIt on November 04, 2008, 05:41:20 PM: told you. No chance in hell of Mccain winning.
Title: Re: VERY VERY VERY LAST POLL!! (BO up by 1.9%)
Post by: Roadwarrior on November 04, 2008, 06:43:48 PM: Mccain has a chance of eeking out squeakers in battleground states + PA..... ....and who cares if he loses the popular vote