Trump the Superstitious Gambler

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http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/02/japanese-gambler-donald-trump-213635
Is where the story of Trumps Heavy Gambling Career starts
On page 2 of the article
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/02/japanese-gambler-donald-trump-213635?o=1

So Marcum and an Atlantic City casino insider named Al Glasgow prepared a report for Trump proposing a “freeze out” agreement. Under the deal, Kashiwagi would bring $12 million to the table and play until he had either doubled it—or lost everything. Even with huge bets, that would take a long time. Marcum simulated the match in detailed hand written notes. Kashiwagi might surge ahead early, he estimated, but after 75 hours at the table – far longer than he had stayed the first time - his chances of winning would fall to 15 percent. The key was to prevent a repeat of Kashiwagi’s first visit, when he had walked out while ahead.
Kashiwagi, presumably fuzzier on the probabilities, agreed to the terms. There was no legal way to hold him to such a deal but Trump felt the men were honor-bound. “Gamblers are honorable, in their own way—at least about gambling,” he later wrote.
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Kashiwagi returned to Trump Plaza in May, and Trump was again on the casino floor. And once again, his Japanese rival hit an early winning streak. One Trump biographer, Harry Hurt III, described the mogul as “impolitely ‘sweating the action’ in view of Kashiwagi and the other patrons” before excusing himself. After falling behind another $9 million—now $15 million in total over the two sessions—a stunned Trump considered stopping the game. But Marcum convinced him to be patient and wait for the probabilities to work.
The gambling continued for more than five days. In Comeback, Trump recalled hearing from a pit manager that Kashiwagi hit a major losing streak, by pure chance, after his dealers changed from a team of men to a team of women. Losing faith in his RAND-generated odds, Trump now seized on the only thing he had left: superstition: “I want those women dealing to this guy all the time,” Trump insisted. “I don’t give a damn if it’s a coincidence or not.” The mogul even called the women directly to make clear he expected them to stay at the table.
Trump’s account, written years later, here diverges significantly from others. In his telling, the Kashiwagi saga unfolded over one epic visit. But several other fuller accounts—including O’Donnell’s detailed recollection and newspaper reports from the time—clearly describe two separate Kashiwagi trips to Atlantic City.
One thing everyone agrees on is that Trump's fortunes took a sudden turn, just as his RAND expert had predicted. After six days, Trump was up $10 million, meaning he’d won back the $6 million from Kashiwagi’s February visit plus another $4 million.
But there is also disagreement over what happened next. “Remembering our deal, I told my people to stop the play.” Trump wrote in Comeback. Kashiwagi “was not particularly happy about this” Trump recalled, “but he agreed.” Here Trump cited the gamblers’ credo: “When a deal is made, they usually abide by it.”
Kashiwagi saw things very differently. His aide told reporters that Trump had dishonorably violated their deal by calling off the game early. The deal had reportedly been for play to continue until Kashiwagi either won or lost $12 million. That’s not what happened: Trump called the game after $10 million.
It’s not clear, then, why Trump would later write that he was “[r]emembering our deal"—or why he would say that Kashiwagi agreed to stop play. But if Trump did change the terms of a deal at the last minute, it would not be for the first or last time.
Kashiwagi departed in a rage, with his aide announcing plans for that autographed copy of Art of the Deal. “We are going to burn it soon,” he said.
Trump might not have cared, except that Kashiwagi owed him a lot of money. He had been playing on credit, and left before a $6 million check drawn from a Singapore bank had cleared. Though the facts are unclear, the check apparently bounced or Kashiwagi canceled it. Trump executives publicly threatened lawsuits. Trump’s account in Comeback never mentions any of this, although concerns about his guest’s credit could explain his decision to end their showdown prematurely.
Kashiwagi suggested that Trump, then in significant debt himself, was the one with a credit problem. His aide told the Journal that Trump Plaza had offered his boss a $5,000 shopping spree at Macy’s in Atlantic City—but that the store had rejected Trump’s credit at the register.
“We pity Mr. Trump’s creditors,” said the aide. “No wonder if they panic.” Eventually, they did. All three of Trump’s Atlantic City casinos were bankrupt by 1992. But Akio Kashiwagi didn’t get to enjoy it. He was murdered in early January of that year.
In Trump’s telling, it was Kashiwagi’s visit to his casino that effectively ruined the secretive gambler’s life. He returned home to a media frenzy in Tokyo over his Atlantic City adventure. “One day he completely lost it,” Trump wrote. “He ran outside to get away from two television cameras peering into his window. He tripped over the curb and broke his ankle. His chauffer pulled him into his black Mercedes and sped off.”
“Kashiwagi went into hiding and was never seen again until his body was found hacked to pieces by a samurai sword,” Trump continued. “They never caught the killers.”
Japanese authorities did make an arrest in the case, charging a man the Los Angeles Times described as "a reputed local gangster" acquainted with Kashiwagi's son. The motive was unclear, but Japanese media noted that the killer did not steal Kashiwagi’s diamonds or the hundreds of thousands of dollars stashed in the house.
In a statement to POLITICO, Trump expressed respect for Kashiwagi (though no remorse for his death). “I loved our matches with him,” Trump said. “He was a great player who loved big numbers. He made me a lot of money when money was very tight and the economy was crashing.”
But it’s not clear that Kashiwagi made Trump any money at all. The final ledger is murky. But if Kashiwagi won $6 million on his first trip to Atlantic City, then lost $10 million—and died owing Trump $4 million, then Trump at best broke even. If reports that Kashiwagi cashed in nearly $500,000 in chips on his way out of the casino are correct, then Trump finished in the red.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/02/japanese-gambler-donald-trump-213635#ixzz40DYn7LLb

[Israel Chai]

Any other source besides politico?