Predictions for 2009, by Roger Wiegand. Pray This Guy Is Wrong!

[New Yorker]

Predictions for 2009, by Roger Wiegand

Our new president was inaugurated and we wish him well for the sake of our nation and others throughout the world. We do not want to be cynical but must be realistic. We think this year will be the worst one of this longer recession-depression cycle and our new leader, we suspect is going to take a merciless pounding from a heap of troubles domestically first and foreign later.

Thankfully, the spending of TARP #2 and whatever billions-trillions are added for emphasis, should give us the Obama Market Bounce lasting perhaps 90 days or so. While this economics plan has no chance in our view, the herd psychology of markets should give us a nice relief rally almost across the board. The dollar is flat to down on the intermediate cycle and bonds are the same. We forecast the balance of our favorites to rally along with shares in both the mainstream and precious metals.

However, with spring flowers in April we are expecting a quintuple smash of:

Wave one of commercial real estate foreclosures and loan failures. Some of the biggest of the big buildings will be foreclosed and those planned but not built will never see daylight. Meanwhile, vacancies skyrocket while budgets are busted with dropping rents. One analyst estimated the New York City Financial district buildings will see 66% occupancies with break even budgets being much higher. You will see some major shopping malls shut down.
The second wave of residential foreclosures and loan failures arrives dragging down all real estate values both commercial and residential. They will sink like a rock in over-built states and within those regions previously hit the worst. This is related to the next mortgage failure cycle. Some of those formerly upscale, McMansion subdivisions will turn into ghost towns.
Wave one of auto loan failures containing billions in bank, credit union and auto finance company loans will smash credit markets. The reaction will be stunning and probably stop most vehicle lending temporarily for weeks paralyzing automakers and those lenders still doing car and truck loans.
Wave one of several future waves of credit card failures estimated at $40 billion by bank credit analysts will be an April smash. Normally card failures are in the 1-2% range annually. This larger event opens doors for a historic new number of non-payers and delinquents. This cycle is mostly job loss related but most of it is due to overspending by cardholders.
Wave one of the Credit Default Swaps (CDS) will hit markets like a Tsunami. These failures will be so overpowering, those in charge will be stunned and flabbergasted by the numbers. The figures are so large we cannot even imagine the amounts. One analyst said it was estimated between $500 and $750 Trillion dollars! There is no margin or deposit money on these trades.

Continued... http://www.survivalblog.com/2009/01/more_predictions_for_2009_by_r.html

[briann]

$750 Trillion dollars??? Everything on this planet is not worth 750 trillion dollars. 

But I do agree that we will start to see a second wave of foreclosures. 

For 2 reasons. 
1) Real Estate value will continue to drop
2) Layoffs will add new pressure.

[New Yorker]

$750 Trillion dollars??? Everything on this planet is not worth 750 trillion dollars. 

I don't know about the figures, but the vision of empty buildings in Manhatten, vacant boarded up malls, ghost town neighborhoods, basically third world squaluar in America, is too plausible and frightening.

[AsheDina]

Dont worry, Obamas gonna change it.

[New Yorker]

Dont worry, Obamas gonna change it.

 

Followed by..

 

Followed by...

 

[briann]

I really think we wont see the devastation from the 'stimulous' plan until 2011.

Same thing with the new deal... it didnt send us into a second depression until late 37.