Mord, we cross-posted... I confess I was not even aware that Israel had submarines.
Based on my extensive research in the past few minutes...
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE5621XZ20090703http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/24/AR2006082401050.htmlhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dolphin_class_submarine... I'm highly skeptical about Israel's ability to make surgical strikes from submarines. The country apparently has three submarines, based in the Mediterranean, which is out of range from Iran. The Reuters article describes how they "sailed" one of them through the Suez Canal recently, supposedly as a warning to Iran. But Suez is still a long way from the Persian Gulf, and I don't think they can reliably
sneak a submarine through the Suez, which slices through more than 100 miles of Egypt. Also, Iran's nuclear facilities are spread across several locations in different parts of the country -- which implies a need for multiple fighter jets that can change course and re-target in the event that some jets are shot down.
The Washington Post article talks about the submarines serving as a way for Israel to retaliate with nukes if Iran nukes Israel. That makes more sense to me. Israel might launch a surprise attack on Iranian nuclear facilities with conventional missiles, but there's zero chance Israel would launch a
pre-emptive nuclear strike.