A CRISIS SIMULATION OF AN ISRAELI STRIKE ON THE IRANIAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM

[Ari Ben-Canaan]

http://networkedblogs.com/p28864520

On December 14, 2009, the Saban Center for Middle
East Policy at the Brookings Institution conducted a
day-long simulation of the diplomatic and military fallout
that could result from an Israeli military strike against the
Iranian nuclear program.
STRUCTURE OF THE SIMULATION
The simulation was conducted as a three-move game
with three separate country teams. One team represented
a hypothetical American National Security Council,
a second team represented a hypothetical Israeli
cabinet, and a third team represented a hypothetical Iranian
Supreme National Security Council. The U.S. team
consisted of approximately ten members, all of whom
had served in senior positions in the U.S. government
and U.S. military. The Israel team consisted of a halfdozen
American experts on Israel with close ties to Israeli
decision-makers, and who, in some cases, had spent
considerable time in Israel. Some members of the Israel
team had also served in the U.S. government. The Iran
team consisted of a half-dozen American experts on
Iran, some of whom had lived and/or traveled extensively
in Iran, are of Iranian extraction, and/or had
served in the U.S. government with responsibility for
Iran.
OPENING MOVES
Prior to the simulation, the organizers of the simulation—
the “Control” team—told members of the U.S.
and Iran teams that the game would begin during a crisis,
but prior to an Israeli attack. However, to simulate
what Control believed was the unlikelihood in the real
world that either the United States or Iran would have
any significant warning of an Israeli attack, the game
instead began with all teams receiving reports that a
large-scale Israeli strike had already taken place against
Iran, motivated by the breakdown of talks between Iran
and the P5+1, the failure of the United Nations Security
Council to endorse more than symbolic new sanctions
against Iran, and the acquisition of highly valuable
but highly perishable intelligence information regarding
the existence of two secret Iranian nuclear facilities.
Control opted to have Israel not tell the United States
before the strike that it would be attacking.

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