UGHHHH, Paul has NEVER EVER been a serious contender. We went through this 4 year ago. He is below 11% or below in EVERY current legitimate National poll and that has NEVER changed... and even THAT is an overestimation. He was actually higher than this in 2008, in these polls right before the primaries... and he ended up doing nothing in the primaries...
He always wins or nearly wins the meaningless internet straw polls because his rabbid leftist followers who are mostly moronic leftist teenagers know how to hugely overrepresent these meaningless polls.
He MAY do ok in Iowa since his campagin has decided to put HUGE money into his commercials there, but after that... you wont hear his name again.