Whats going on with the polls?

[briann]

The recent Romney surge almost defies logic.   Its hard for me to even believe the most recent gallup poll.

Is this real or a mirage, or just the polls adjusting to a more accurate reading because we are getting closer to Nov?

[Confederate Kahanist]

The recent Romney surge almost defies logic.   Its hard for me to even believe the most recent gallup poll.

Is this real or a mirage, or just the polls adjusting to a more accurate reading because we are getting closer to Nov?

IDK though I am still kind of somewhat worried about the poll numbers in Ohio.  Obongo could win the electoral college by a landslide. 

[briann]

IDK though I am still kind of somewhat worried about the poll numbers in Ohio.  Obongo could win the electoral college by a landslide.

yes, but even the poll that Obamites loved the most (the Real Clear Electoral College) has Romney in the lead.   He was nowhere near leading in this a couple weeks ago.... he was down double digits.

[Confederate Kahanist]

yes, but even the poll that Obamites loved the most (the Real Clear Electoral College) has Romney in the lead.   He was nowhere near leading in this a couple weeks ago.... he was down double digits.

Romney isn't in the lead yet in that poll:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

[syyuge]

Probably the fence sitters have started siding with Romney.

[briann]

Romney isn't in the lead yet in that poll:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

Actually.... he has taken the lead...  and this is his first EVER lead in this... AND this aggregates a lot of leftist polls.... AND this still has remnants from much older polls before the sudden upswing.  The tossips are all very close.... and once the newer polls start to trickle in... you will see him in the lead in that as well.

Romney 206     Obama 201

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

[NoMosqueHere]

I tend to be pessimistic about most things.   But America has fundamentally changed; it's not the same country I grew up in -- it's much more third world and the white population is shrinking and becoming more and more PC.  The future belongs to politicians like Obama.

[Chaim Ben Pesach]

בס''ד

I don't believe the Gallup poll which contradicts every other national poll. Obviously, I hope I'm wrong.

My guess is that this is still a close election. Today's Rasmussen poll (which tends to lean Republican) shows a tie - Romney 48%, Obama 48%. And this morning, a new national poll was released by the Hartford Courant which shows Obama back in the lead - Obama 48%, Romney 45% (this poll was completed before the second Romney-Obama debate this week.)

The electoral college calculation assumes that Pennsylvania and Michigan are toss up states even though Obama leads in the polls there.

I think Briann is looking at this very realistically - the race remains uncertain and close. Which means all of us should fight much harder because in a close race there is a chance we could influence the outcome.

[briann]

בס''ד

I don't believe the Gallup poll which contradicts every other national poll. Obviously, I hope I'm wrong.

My guess is that this is still a close election. Today's Rasmussen poll (which tends to lean Republican) shows a tie - Romney 48%, Obama 48%. And this morning, a new national poll was released by the Hartford Courant which shows Obama back in the lead - Obama 48%, Romney 45% (this poll was completed before the second Romney-Obama debate this week.)

The electoral college calculation assumes that Pennsylvania and Michigan are toss up states even though Obama leads in the polls there.

I think Briann is looking at this very realistically - the race remains uncertain and close. Which means all of us should fight much harder because in a close race there is a chance we could influence the outcome.

At this moment... I am trying in my mind not to look at Gallup... it just doesnt seem to make sense to me...  But Ive always used Gallup and Rasmussen as the most reliable indicators in the past.

[angryChineseKahanist]

Never sit comfortably!
Don't rely on the polls, help Romney win.
I am glad he finally seems to want to win - unlike McLame.

[Chaim Ben Pesach]

בס''ד

The Investors Daily poll shows Obama in the lead again: Obama 46.5% | Romney 44.8%

Investors Daily supports Romney, so this is not a leftwing biased poll.

So the race continues to be close. If you take Gallup out, Obama leads among the other national polls.

http://news.investors.com/special-report/508415-ibdtipp-poll.aspx

[Confederate Kahanist]

בס''ד

The Investors Daily poll shows Obama in the lead again: Obama 46.5% | Romney 44.8%

Investors Daily supports Romney, so this is not a leftwing biased poll.

So the race continues to be close. If you take Gallup out, Obama leads among the other national polls.

http://news.investors.com/special-report/508415-ibdtipp-poll.aspx

Your totally right Chaim. 

We still do have a big fight ahead of his.

this isn't 1980 when states such as California, Maine, Maryland and others were toss up states.  This is 2012 when those states are now dark blue states.