Rasmussen Markets See Romney as Debate Winner

[Dan]

Rasmussen Markets data suggests that Mitt Romney gained ground in Florida during last night’s televised debate.

When the debate began, the market results showed Romney with a 54% chance of winning Florida’s Primary next Tuesday. By the end of the evening, expectations for a Romney win increased to 60%. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Florida showed Romney with a modest lead.

John McCain’s numbers moved in the opposite direction, from 38% when the debate began to 33% by the end of the evening. Immediately following his win in South Carolina, expectations were very high for McCain in Florida, reaching 70%. However, on Monday, Rasmussen Reports became the first polling firm to show McCain trailing to Romney and expectations for a McCain victory have been slipping a bit each day. Florida poses a special challenge and an opportunity for McCain. He won in New Hampshire and South Carolina with the help of independent voters. In Florida’s closed primary, only Republicans are allowed to participate. A Rasmussen Reports analysis earlier in the week noted that if McCain does win in Florida, he may become unstoppable in his bid for the nomination.

Current market data suggests that Romney has a 61.5% chance of winning while McCain’s prospects are at 35.0%.

Rudy Giuliani, who has pinned his entire campaign strategy on winning in Florida is now seen as a very long-shot in the Sunshine State. Following the debates, expectations for Giuliani to win were at 9% (current pricing: 7.1%). Last night, the former Mayor of New York compared his prospects to those of the New York Giants. The Giants were underdogs in each of their three play-off games before making it to the Super Bowl. However, even when preparing to face the Green Bay Packers last Sunday, market expectations for the Giants never slipped to single digits.