http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704211704575140132450524648.html?mod=WSJ_hp_editorsPicksThe recession has halted the dominant migration trend of recent decades, turning once-hot destinations such as Las Vegas and Orlando, Fla., into some of the country's losers.
Census data released Tuesday portray a sharp shift in migration during the depths of the recession, from July 2008 to July 2009. With home prices slammed and few jobs available in any state, people from Massachusetts to California decided to stay put or go back where they came from.
The Las Vegas metropolitan area lost about 1,300 residents to other areas. That compares with an annual inflow of 54,000 people during the height of the real-estate boom, and marks the first year of out-migration the city has seen in at least a century. The Orlando area swung to an outflow of about 4,300 from an inflow of 52,000 in 2004-2005.
The shifts represent a radical departure from the migration patterns that had made cities such as Las Vegas and Orlando some of the country's fastest-growing. For decades, people have been leaving colder Northeastern and Midwestern states, either to retire or to chase better weather and jobs in the South and West.
"It's unprecedented to see areas like Las Vegas and Orlando, just blue-chip destinations for anybody who wanted to move, to stop and stay stopped over a couple of years," said William Frey, a demographer with the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank.
Meanwhile, some cities accustomed to losing people are showing net gains. The government's growing role in the economy has benefited the Washington, D.C., area, which drew 18,200 residents from other states, its first net gain since 2002.
In many cases, cities in the Midwest and Northeast are gaining because residents are locked in place. With depressed home prices and a dearth of out-of-state job offers preventing departures, even a modest number of people moving in can drive gains. The Boston area, for example, swung to an inflow of about 6,800 in 2008-2009 from an outflow of about 46,000 in 2004-2005. The Chicago area's outflow narrowed to about 40,400 from about 77,400.
Tim Jones, a 30-year-old satellite-television installer, has been on both ends of the migration. Late last year, he moved back to Plano, Ill., in the Chicago area after losing an installation job in the Phoenix area. He said he tried hard to find another job in Phoenix, applying everywhere from auto-repair shops to Wal-Mart, but to no avail.
"It was a pain moving and moving again, but we have to go where the work is," said Mr. Jones, who managed to get his old job back.
Mr. Jones's former home county—Arizona's Maricopa County—is emblematic of the turnaround. A stream of new housing-related jobs attracted people to the area, but that halted once the real-estate market tanked. The county's domestic-migration gain dropped to just 4,600 in 2008-2009 from 69,400 in 2005-2006, according to an analysis of Census data by Kenneth M. Johnson, senior demographer at the Carsey Institute at the University of New Hampshire.
Overall, migration within the U.S. has declined sharply—a phenomenon that could present yet another hurdle for an economy still limping to recovery. Past recessions have seen regional shifts where people left the hardest-hit areas in hopes of finding better prospects a few states away. In the 1980s recession, for instance, many people moved from depressed manufacturing hubs in the upper Midwest to Southern oil states, where the economy was booming. If depressed house prices prevent enough people from moving to seek work, that labor flexibility could be lost.
Beyond that, the reversal of migration in former housing-boom cities could aggravate their real-estate downturns. A separate report released by the National Association of Realtors on Tuesday showed that February real-estate sales and prices were hit harder in the West and South—areas that have seen big reductions in migration.
Perhaps the most profound shift has been in Las Vegas, the desert gambling Mecca that has become a national symbol of the housing boom and bust. Between December 2007 and the beginning of this year, the city has lost more than 130,000 jobs.
Dave Tina moved to Las Vegas 13 years ago after two decades as a New York City fireman, lured by warm weather and low tax rates on his pension. Now, in a second career selling real estate, Mr. Tina said he found himself brokering deals for people who wanted to sell their homes at a loss, leave Las Vegas and go back where they came from.
"For the last 12 years of my business, no one ever said they were leaving to go home," he said. "Now all of a sudden, they lost their job and a house they bought for $400,000 is $150,000. They're short-selling their house and going home."
Tuesday's Census release covered a range of data on metropolitan areas and counties, including immigration, births, deaths and state-to-state movements. While the recession appeared to have little impact on births and deaths, it did make the U.S. a less attractive destination for foreigners: Immigration fell to about 855,000 in 2009, from just over a million in 2006.
Topic: Sun Belt Loses Its Shine (Read 1127 times)