Economic crash 2016/17

[christians4jews]

I put some money in a online stock trading site back in december 2015, read up on warren buffet, read all the business articles. I noticed sticks from 2015 calender year were down 5%. Not alot, but id thought id hold back and do further research from non establishment economics experts as i personally feel uneasy with all the debt. I watcged vuds by gerald celente, bill bonner, david stockton etc and thought im going to leave my money sitting and wait out tge first two months if 2016. Glad i did.

What do you guys think, am i being too negative or do you feel one of the worst crashes on record is inniment?

[Zelhar]

I don't see an economic crash. Financial institutions seem to have healthy balance sheets this time. Low commodity prices is good for everyone except the ones who sell them but that's not a big chunk of the developed economies. The time to buy is when everybody is on panic mode.

[fibrogirl]

I think there will be a crash.
Or at best, a slow decline in the economy.

Even Donald Trump talked about a crash in December
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-12-19/trump-predicts-u-s-economic-bubble-could-soon-burst

[Zelhar]

In his case it is a self fulfilling prophesy if he is elected.

I think there will be a crash.
Or at best, a slow decline in the economy.

Even Donald Trump talked about a crash in December
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-12-19/trump-predicts-u-s-economic-bubble-could-soon-burst

[Israel Chai]

A socoionomic study of the economy indicates that there could be a crash now, and the longer it takes, the worse the ensuing war will be.

Wait to see if gold starts going up though, it doesn't seem like it's going to happen right now. At any rate, if you have money, build a bomb shelter in case Cruz doesn't win.

[christians4jews]

I don't see an economic crash. Financial institutions seem to have healthy balance sheets this time. Low commodity prices is good for everyone except the ones who sell them but that's not a big chunk of the developed economies. The time to buy is when everybody is on panic mode.

Do they, in the uk everyones balance shes seems to be on credit cars. Hardly anyone ownes a car here in the uk, all on finance. Banks have done zero cuts since 2008.

The us is 19 trillion in debt, not just oil, all commodity prices are down which suggests no ones got any money. Most people are in debt, and with student loans being another hidden debt.

Also the biggun for me wages have stagnated, the young cannot afford property, and we have been on emergency rates since 2009.

[Zelhar]

You raise allot of issues and each can be a whole discussion in itself There are always problematic issues and this Obama economy is definitely terrible. That doesn't mean it is going to implode. The financial crisis of 2008 happened because Banks lent money to people who had no business getting a loan and who would have never been able to repay it out of their income.

From what I can tell the ballance of UK banks is much stronger, and leverage is lower then what it was before and during the financial crisis.  Even in this bad economy if the bank are disciplined they won't lend to customers who are too risky (in other words they don't repeat the  mistakes that led to the subprime crisis) then they will not implode.

The US national debt is a looming disaster albeit not an immediate one. If interest rates were much higher, say 6% the US would struggle to repay it's debt just like Spain did a couple of years ago on a similar (actually lower I believe) debt to gdp ratio. But unlike Spain the US can print as many dollars as it wants. If interest rates were higher they would print yet more dollars and diflate the currency's purchasing power (creating a massive price inflation) in order to be able to repay their debt. An outright default is pretty much impossible.

The commodity crash is a good thing, unless you are an oild sheikdom or a US shale player then tough luck.

Sorry I can't right now give you a very comprehensive answer, or rather opinion, becuae in the end you might be in the right and the economy will implode...

Do they, in the uk everyones balance shes seems to be on credit cars. Hardly anyone ownes a car here in the uk, all on finance. Banks have done zero cuts since 2008.

The us is 19 trillion in debt, not just oil, all commodity prices are down which suggests no ones got any money. Most people are in debt, and with student loans being another hidden debt.

Also the biggun for me wages have stagnated, the young cannot afford property, and we have been on emergency rates since 2009.

[Chiram]

The stock market could rebound, but it looks like the smart money got out before the squeamish started dumping.

In France, things in the real economy have been surreal since November's muslim nazi attacks:

Tourism is way down (hotels with 400 rooms only had a dozen rented in high season), restaurants, museums, shops and bars are empty.
Even though people are losing jobs, no one wants to speak out of wishful thinking and fear of frightening remaining tourists.

If the stock market is only kept afloat by systemic inertia, banks and cheap oil, this does not augur well.

Ironically, it could be a good time to buy discounted alternative energy stocks for the post-oil world.

[christians4jews]

I guess we will have to see whos right, but if you read the news to me its quite obvious we are heading for a slow down. The average joe has no money, and zelhar refuses to admit we have been on emergency quantitve easing and record low interest rates for 8 yesrs! No where to go. In 2015 the stock market was down 5% in the calender year. Lets see if they can prove me wrong and keep the ponzi scheme going through 2016/17

[Debbie Shafer]

I see a collapse coming just like it did before WW II.    Make sure you get out of debt....now.    Pay things off, owe no one anything.  Save money, but not in the Stock Market!  I wouldn't never trust Wall Street anymore, knowing who is running the whole shebang.

[Debbie Shafer]

Walmarts, Macy's, Sears, and other small businesses are closing. Other companies are going overseas.  The jobs created must be in the Unions or the Government, because they sure as a heck aren't in the private sector, or in retail.  I think the delusioned on the left and the right are in for another big surprise!

[Zelhar]

I don't refuse to admit facts. QE is a fact. The effect of which is not easy to comprehend. As for "The average Joe has no money" I think it is more of an opinion, a social critique, and even if there is truth to it, the flip side is that the above average Jo- Mr corporate exec, Mr government Bureaucrat, Mr state employee etc. they have lots of money. You also have lots of money coming from China, from the Persian Golf etc. So the economy as a whole is flushed with money (thanks in large part to QE and bloated government spending). I don't know where you stand in this, I am definitely in the "have nots" side.

As for the stock market, unless you believe the world is coming to an end, then history teaches us the time to buy into the markets is always in times of great pessimism and panic. Buy it over time, and don't panic sell. If you bought the market (DOW index etc.) during the great depression and continued buying though WWII you would have made a fortune. If you bought the market during the abysmal late 70s, you would have made a great return. Ditto if you had done this in mid 2008 till mid 2009. Now be warned the SP500 is still pretty high and has allot of room to fall into.

I guess we will have to see whos right, but if you read the news to me its quite obvious we are heading for a slow down. The average joe has no money, and zelhar refuses to admit we have been on emergency quantitve easing and record low interest rates for 8 yesrs! No where to go. In 2015 the stock market was down 5% in the calender year. Lets see if they can prove me wrong and keep the ponzi scheme going through 2016/17

[christians4jews]

I don't refuse to admit facts. QE is a fact. The effect of which is not easy to comprehend. As for "The average Joe has no money" I think it is more of an opinion, a social critique, and even if there is truth to it, the flip side is that the above average Jo- Mr corporate exec, Mr government Bureaucrat, Mr state employee etc. they have lots of money. You also have lots of money coming from China, from the Persian Golf etc. So the economy as a whole is flushed with money (thanks in large part to QE and bloated government spending). I don't know where you stand in this, I am definitely in the "have nots" side.

As for the stock market, unless you believe the world is coming to an end, then history teaches us the time to buy into the markets is always in times of great pessimism and panic. Buy it over time, and don't panic sell. If you bought the market (DOW index etc.) during the great depression and continued buying though WWII you would have made a fortune. If you bought the market during the abysmal late 70s, you would have made a great return. Ditto if you had done this in mid 2008 till mid 2009. Now be warned the SP500 is still pretty high and has allot of room to fall into.

Mate i understand the stock market, and its long term value. But im a very  low stake investor that may need to sell if something goes wrong with my house etc. So where if you have money to burn then i agree with you. But a very low investor like me cannot afford a 10 percent dip especially if a boiler breaks down etc. So im opting out.

As for the economy we will see, i think im right and your wrong. Im going to guess your a avid bloomberg watcher and seem to ignore massive leveridge and debt and forget that the true market will catch up eventually.

[Zelhar]

I see your point. I am not a bloomberg nor cnbc avid watcher (I may have used to be in the past though).

Mate i understand the stock market, and its long term value. But im a very  low stake investor that may need to sell if something goes wrong with my house etc. So where if you have money to burn then i agree with you. But a very low investor like me cannot afford a 10 percent dip especially if a boiler breaks down etc. So im opting out.

As for the economy we will see, i think im right and your wrong. Im going to guess your a avid bloomberg watcher and seem to ignore massive leveridge and debt and forget that the true market will catch up eventually.

[Debbie Shafer]

Please do everything you can to get out of debt.  We have tough times ahead.