NEW POLL: Roy Moore gains LEAD in Alabama Senate race

According to a new poll by Change Research, Roy Moore has gone from losing the Senate race in their last poll to a 5 point lead in this new poll:

MEDIUM – Alabama Republican Roy Moore has reopened a 49–44 lead over Democrat Doug Jones in the race for U.S. Senate. In Change Research’s third poll since the sexual misconduct allegations against Moore first surfaced on November 9, we found that he has completely erased the 3-point lead Jones had opened up in mid-November. Moore’s lead is now just as large as it was just after the story broke.

What has changed? The largest difference is turnout: many Republicans who ten days ago said they might not vote, now say they plan to show up on Election Day and vote for Moore. In mid-November, 82% of those who voted for Donald Trump in 2016 said they would “definitely” vote on December 12; that number has climbed to 88%. Additionally, Moore has made some gains with his base: his 91–5 lead with them ten days ago has grown to a 93–4 edge. In mid-November, 10% of voters had planned to cast a write-in vote; that number has dropped to 7%.

Here’s the lowdown on the poll:

Polling was conducted November 26–27, using Change Research’s patent pending Bias Correct technology. The sample consisted of 1,868 registered Alabama voters (self-reported). Post stratification was done on age, gender, ethnicity, education, and self-reported 2016 Presidential vote, with additional weighting based on predicted likelihood of voting in this election.

I would like to point out that none of Change Research’s polls are reported on Real Clear Politics. The last poll they are reporting for the Alabama Senate Race was published 8 days ago and showed Moore with a +2 point lead.

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