Author Topic: Fed takes boldest action since the Depression to rescue US mortgage industry  (Read 1238 times)

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Offline Dan

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The US Federal Reserve has taken the boldest action since the 1930s, accepting $200bn of housing debt as collateral to prevent an implosion of the mortgage finance industry and head off a full-blown economic crisis.
The Bank of England, the key European central banks, and the Bank of Canada all joined in a co-ordinated move with a mix of policies to halt the dowward spiral in the credit markets, expanding on the "shock and awe" tactics used late last year.

 
The Fed's dramatic step came after an emergency conference call by governors on Monday night. It followed the melt-down of the US chartered agencies -- Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and other lenders -- which together guarantee 60pc of the entire US home loan market. Fannie Mae's share price fell 19pc in panic trading on Monday after Barron's magazine said it may need a rescue package.

"The agency crisis was a Tsunami event," said Tim Bond, global strategist at Barclays Capital.

"The market was starting to question the solvency of bodies that stand at the top of the credit pile. These agencies together wrap or insure $6 trillion of mortgages. They cannot be allowed to fail because it would cause a financial disaster. The fact that this sector has blown up has caught everybody's attention in Washington," he said.

The Fed action set off a powerful relief rally, lifting the Dow Jones index over 340 points in early trading. Both US and European equities have been hovering on key support lines in recent days, threatening to break down through 18-month lows in a second, brutal leg to the bear market.

Stress indicators across almost all parts of the global credit system fell from extreme levels on the Fed news. The CDX and iTraxx Europe indexes that serve as a default barometer for corporate bonds retreated from record highs, although it is too early to judge whether the latest action will start to thaw the credit freeze. The stock market rally after the last central bank intervention in December fizzled out after just one day.

"This is not going to be enough," said Hans Redeker, currency chief at BNP Paribas.

"The Fed is doing absolutely the right thing by soaking up mortgage debt that nobody else wants. This will have an impact on spreads, but we're seeing the deflation of a major bubble. The Fed is still going to have to cut interest rates by 75 basis points next week," he said.

It is a ground-breaking move for the Fed to accept mortgage collateral, even if the debt is theoretically 'AAA-grade' debt. The Fed is not allowed to buy mortgage bonds outright, but it can achieve a similar effect by letting banks roll over collateral indefinitely. The European Central Bank is already doing this, shielding Dutch, Spanish, German, and some British banks from the full impact of the credit crunch.

The Fed is to create a new facility that allows banks to swap their mortgage bonds for US Treasuries. It is a well-targeted "sterilized" move to avoid adding fuel to inflationary fire. It follows the Fed's separate pledge last Friday to add up to $200bn in liquidity.

The Bank of England also announced that it was widening the range of elligible collateral as it offers £10bn of three-month loans, saying pressures in the money markets "have recently increased again." The ECB and the Swiss have boosted swap agreements with the Fed to provide $30bn and $6bn respectively in dollar liquidity to their own lenders.

   
Bernard Connolly, global strategist at Banque AIG, said the Fed action may help calm the markets for now, but it cannot solve the root problem of eroded of bank capital.

"There is the risk of a very damaging credit contraction. We face the most serious global crisis since the Great Depression. But this time at least the North American central banks are doing their best to stop it spreading to the real economy," he said.

The emergency actions appear to have been co-ordinated by the Fed's top two figures, Ben Bernanke and Donald Kohn, working closely with the Bank of Canada's Mark Carney. "We should be thankful that we have people in charge who appreciate the gravity of the situation," said Mr Connolly.

The travails at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac -- once rock-solid institutions -- had combined in a deadly cocktail with a fresh wave of panic over the solvency of the investment banks with heavy exposure to sub-prime debt.

Bear Stearns was forced to deny reports that it was running out of capital and may seek Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. The spreads measuring default risk on its debt rocketed from 246 to 792 on Monday.

Mr Bond said the mortgage agencies may ultimately need to be nationalized. Fannie Mae has already seen its stock price drop 70pc since October at a cost of $50bn in market value, even though it has an implicit federal guarantee. "There is going to have to be a very big bail-out," he said.

Offline briann

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I think this underlines the fact that the mortgage crisis IS A CRISIS!!!   it has all the hallmarks of an event that could trigger a VERY serious recession.

However,  I don't think the fed's purchasing mortage debt will make investors suddenly decide they no longer want to unload these securities.  When a market is collapsing, there is next to nothing anyone can do.  no amount of buying by the fed will truly change people fears.

I think they are fooling themselves... and I'll bet the market will return to where it was by next week, and investors will continue to unload these repackaged securities. 

I think were in for a freefall

Brian



Offline Baltimore

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basically we the tax payers are bailing out the banks on their horrible loans. Not a good thing at all.  The Fed knows that people losing jobs is a lot worse than inflation in the eyes of the common person. For that reason expect more cuts to interest rates and thus more inflation. My advice to all of you is not to have a lot of money in the bank because even if it is gaining interest it will not be beating inflation. Invest in valuable money generating assets. I know this is not an easy thing to do.  :(

Offline briann

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basically we the tax payers are bailing out the banks on their horrible loans. Not a good thing at all.  The Fed knows that people losing jobs is a lot worse than inflation in the eyes of the common person. For that reason expect more cuts to interest rates and thus more inflation. My advice to all of you is not to have a lot of money in the bank because even if it is gaining interest it will not be beating inflation. Invest in valuable money generating assets. I know this is not an easy thing to do.  :(

What are valuable money generating assets???


Offline Dan

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basically we the tax payers are bailing out the banks on their horrible loans. Not a good thing at all.  The Fed knows that people losing jobs is a lot worse than inflation in the eyes of the common person. For that reason expect more cuts to interest rates and thus more inflation. My advice to all of you is not to have a lot of money in the bank because even if it is gaining interest it will not be beating inflation. Invest in valuable money generating assets. I know this is not an easy thing to do.  :(
Like GOLD? or other commodities...

Offline Ari

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As long as it stops the market from tanking further, I'm all for it. O0

Offline cjd

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Once again the government is putting their hand in the pockets of hard working Americans to help bail out people that have mismanaged their money and have overextended themselves living high on the hog. No matter how you look at it at the end of the day people who have tried to work hard and save their money are going to have to foot the bill for the pigs that spend money they didn't have. As things are now you can invest in anything you like gold, commodities and at the end of the day unless you really keep on top if the market you will loose you shirt just like the guy that kept his money in cash. Like they say in the stock market a rising tide raises all boats but a descending one will also lower all boats. With the  Fed cranking up the old printing presses and flooding the market with cash it won't be long before runaway inflation goes into high gear. At that point no matter where you are positioned the price of goods and services will bring everything crashing down to all time lows.
He who overlooks one crime invites the commission of another.        Syrus.

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Offline briann

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basically we the tax payers are bailing out the banks on their horrible loans. Not a good thing at all.  The Fed knows that people losing jobs is a lot worse than inflation in the eyes of the common person. For that reason expect more cuts to interest rates and thus more inflation. My advice to all of you is not to have a lot of money in the bank because even if it is gaining interest it will not be beating inflation. Invest in valuable money generating assets. I know this is not an easy thing to do.  :(
Like GOLD? or other commodities...

I wouldnt stay in Gold for the long term.  It may go up much more, as things get crazier, but it will CRASH like you can't imagine.  During the double digit inflation and desperation of the late 70's early 80's Gold went as higher than $2000 (adjusted for inflation), but eventually the Gold bubble burst and Gold went into as low as $250/oz and took a couple decades just to get to its average for inflation.

I promise you the same will happened with Gold.

That's the little secret that the Gold peddlers don't want you to know.  I'd strongly suggest people consider fixed income for safety, and Gold ONLY if you are a bit of a gambler.

Brian


Offline Baltimore

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The next Bubble is the commodities bubble. Right now people fearing inflation are pumping up the value of gold and oil. Demand for oil is actually down in the USA but investors keep pumping the price up by buying it.

If we are going to have a zero interest rate (and we will soon enough) then saving money in the bank is actually losing money when taking in to account inflation.

If you already own a home with a reasonable and normal mortgage (or no mortgage) then you are in good shape. If you own a 2nd home that is an investment property that is generating money for you then you are in better shape. No matter how inflated the dollar gets a home is something people will always need and you could always cash in the 2nd house.

If you are invested in a popular money making business then you are relatively safe also.

Again all of this is risky stuff and you must be financially savvy and willing to take risks to do well in such a market.

If you are a renter negotiate a 2 year lease now. There are a few reasons for this:
1. By this time in 2010 housing prices will have dropped significantly and you may be able to afford a house.

2. If we enter some bad inflation then by the end of year 2 the rent you are paying will seem very reasonable.

3. Right now there are some home owners who are desperate to rent out their place in order to catch up on mortgages. The renter has some leverage because of this and should be able to name a price and length for the lease. If you do not feel comfortable making a 2 year commitment then add a clause that says after year 1 if you can find a renter to pay more than your current rent and that renter is considered of quality by the landlord then the current lease can be voided and the new renter can take over at a higher rent. Of course you would want to have another place in your control before you opted for this.

Legally this is not financial advice. I have to add that disclaimer

Offline briann

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The next Bubble is the commodities bubble. Right now people fearing inflation are pumping up the value of gold and oil. Demand for oil is actually down in the USA but investors keep pumping the price up by buying it.


You are partially right here.  Commodities are DEFINETELY a bubble, and Investors ARE still pumping up oil via the futures options and other derivatives... HOWEVER... worldwide demand for oil is at an all time high, thanks to China and India. 

Quote

If we are going to have a zero interest rate (and we will soon enough) then saving money in the bank is actually losing money when taking in to account inflation.


I don't think we'll have a zero interest rate, unless we fall into a true depression.   negative interest means a complete and total collapse in the financial institutions.. when nobody wants to borrow anything, since theres nothing worth investing in, and institutions become very warry on lending in general.  Its very rare.. but I know it happened for a short time recently in Japan, and its happened a few times in the last century.

Quote

If you already own a home with a reasonable and normal mortgage (or no mortgage) then you are in good shape. If you own a 2nd home that is an investment property that is generating money for you then you are in better shape. No matter how inflated the dollar gets a home is something people will always need and you could always cash in the 2nd house.

If you are invested in a popular money making business then you are relatively safe also.


What do you mean?

Quote

Again all of this is risky stuff and you must be financially savvy and willing to take risks to do well in such a market.

If you are a renter negotiate a 2 year lease now. There are a few reasons for this:
1. By this time in 2010 housing prices will have dropped significantly and you may be able to afford a house.

2. If we enter some bad inflation then by the end of year 2 the rent you are paying will seem very reasonable.

3. Right now there are some home owners who are desperate to rent out their place in order to catch up on mortgages. The renter has some leverage because of this and should be able to name a price and length for the lease. If you do not feel comfortable making a 2 year commitment then add a clause that says after year 1 if you can find a renter to pay more than your current rent and that renter is considered of quality by the landlord then the current lease can be voided and the new renter can take over at a higher rent. Of course you would want to have another place in your control before you opted for this.

Legally this is not financial advice. I have to add that disclaimer


I take it you are in Real Estate?  hahahah

« Last Edit: March 14, 2008, 02:30:37 AM by briann »