To Chaim: Three concerns of airstrike on Iran's nuclear facilities

[Lewinsky Stinks, Dr. Brennan Rocks]

This thread is for everybody, of course, but particular our dear National Chairman, Chaim Ben Pesach. Chaim, please weigh in on the following concerns I have thought up regarding a possible airstrike on Iran. As far as I have seen, we haven't addressed any of this yet. It seems like the only repercussions anybody is interested in discussing are what it will do to the price of oil (likely spiking it to $500/barrel for many weeks/months afterward) or the possibility of the Iranians seizing the Straits of Hormuz.

1. What if the U.S. or Israel doesn't finish the job? Unfortunately, we have to consider the very real chance that the USAF or IAF, either due to incompetence or reticence to harm "Iranian civilians" (more likely the latter), will not really destroy Iran's nuclear facilities. A half-done (I was going to say something else, but not necessary) airstrike that does not actually accomplish the task will be worse than doing nothing at all. In addition to all of the negative consequences that we already know will happen (gas prices far more astronomical than we ever imagined, possible seizure of the Straits, a massive missile blitzkrieg on Israel), the tremendous psychological victory that a failure would give to Iran and the Muslim world would likely inspire an all-out war effort by Iran or other Muslim nations against Israel and/or U.S. forces.

2. What if Americans do not support an airstrike on Iran? It doesn't seem coincidental to me that Obama is leading in the polls and has pledged repeatedly that any military option against Iran's nuclear problem is off the table. It seems to me that most Americans do not want an airstrike on Iran. Most people are so disgusted and turned-off by Bush's fiasco of a "war" in Iraq that any further military action whatsoever, regardless of the scope or reasons, is anathema to them. Average people don't understand the life-and-death gravity of Iran's developing the atomic bomb. They just know that they were promised that Iraq had WMDs as well, and that that turned out to be a lie, and that that turned out to be a disastrous second Vietnam for America. Have you considered that Bush is holding off a strike on Iran for that reason--that doing so would hand the presidency on a silver platter to Obama?

3. What if everyone is underestimating Iran's capabilities? Chaim, this is an area where I think that I disagree with you. On this week's Ask JTF, you dismissed the threat posed by the Iranian navy. I would not be so quick to do so. These are not Arabs; this is a considerably more sophisticated nation. Two years ago, the Iranian proxy Hezbollah almost sunk one of Israel's capital ships by hitting it with a state-of-the-art missile. Israel had no idea that such a weapon even existed. It has been close to three decades since the ayatollah's bungling attempt to take out Saddam Hussein's nuclear program. I believe the Russian-trained IRIAF have learned a lot from this and that Israeli/American pilots will face a considerably tougher foe in them than Saddam Hussein. This isn't even factoring in Iran's missile defenses, crack special forces (look at some of the attacks Iran/Hezbollah have pulled off in Iraq), etc.

Obviously Israel or the United States can overcome these threats, but without 100% commitment and determination--both of which have been lacking in those nations' militaries for over a decade--this has the potential to turn into a bloody fiasco very quickly.

I'd love to hear what you say to the above, Chaim. (And everybody else.)

Chaimfan

[White Israelite]

Good point, Persians are not the same as Arabs, they may follow a similar religion but the Persians were a pretty advanced culture and their military is certainly not like Iraqs. Persians defeated the Iraqis who had top of the line American equipment. By the time America invaded Iraq, that equipment had been sitting their rusting and not much of a fight though now much of the war is against terrorists.

Iran is a different situation and I doubt occupation would even be possible. Israel also didn't completely destroy the Iraqi reactor but they did cripple it.

What are the short term and long term benefits?

[Lewinsky Stinks, Dr. Brennan Rocks]

Well, the short and long-term benefit is that Iran's nuclear capabilities are crippled. But it won't be a walk in the park and it won't happen unless the whole air force of either nation is committed to getting the job done, regardless of Iranian "civilian" casualties.

[The White Shadow]

Chaim fan is right on the money.  I'm concerned especially about point 3. 

Iran has 600 missiles aimed at Israel.  They openly state, that Dimona Nuclear power plant is their big target.  If God forbid , the nuclear power plant is hit, all the radiation could be easily be realeased and kill millions of Jews. 

Even if the Dimona Nuclear Power Plant is spared, by the Grace of God, Israel will be devastated from the missile attacks.  We all saw that Hezbollah missiles devastated Northern Israel.  And the Israeli military wouldn't or couldn't stop stop the deadly missile barrage.  Israel's current leaders aren't capable of winning this war.  Olmert is an incompetent military leader, as clearly demonstrated in the war with Hezbollah two summers ago.   

Israel is so geographically small, that she will be devastated by missile salvos from Iran.  It is widely known that the defensive shield can't stop all the missles from coming in.  And I'm sure Iran will be firing off decoy missles as well,  in order to burn up the limited supple of arrow missles.
 And the America Military knows that Israel cannot adequaetly defend herself without military support from the United States.  This is what is being coordinated now.

This is the problem in the nutshell... Israel will have to contend with missile attacks from three different fronts, and simultaneously wipe out Iran's nuclear capabilities.  Israel only has a 100 fighter planes to attack Iran with.  The American Military says Israel would need a 1000 long range fighter planes to ensure the success of the mission.  In addition, Israel will have to leave fighter planes back in Israel to defend the country.




http://www.jihadwatch.org/archives/018165.php

[White Israelite]

Chaim fan is right on the money.  I'm concerned especially about point 3. 

Iran has 600 missiles aimed at Israel.  They openly state, that Dimona Nuclear power plant is their big target.  If G-d forbid , the nuclear power plant is hit, all the radiation could be easily be realeased and kill millions of Jews. 

Even if the Dimona Nuclear Power Plant is spared, by the Grace of G-d, Israel will be devastated from the missile attacks.  We all saw that Hezbollah missiles devastated Northern Israel.  And the Israeli military wouldn't or couldn't stop stop the deadly missile barrage.  Israel's current leaders aren't capable of winning this war.  Olmert is an incompetent military leader, as clearly demonstrated in the war with Hezbollah two summers ago.   

Israel is so geographically small, that she will be devastated by missile salvos from Iran.  It is widely known that the defensive shield can't stop all the missles from coming in.  And I'm sure Iran will be firing off decoy missles as well,  in order to burn up the limited supple of arrow missles.
 And the America Military knows that Israel cannot adequaetly defend herself without military support from the United States.  This is what is being coordinated now.

This is the problem in the nutshell... Israel will have to contend with missile attacks from three different fronts, and simultaneously wipe out Iran's nuclear capabilities.  Israel only has a 100 fighter planes to attack Iran with.  The American Military says Israel would need a 1000 long range fighter planes to ensure the success of the mission.  In addition, Israel will have to leave fighter planes back in Israel to defend the country.




http://www.jihadwatch.org/archives/018165.php

Actually Israel has 322 F-16's

[The White Shadow]

Chaim fan is right on the money.  I'm concerned especially about point 3. 

Iran has 600 missiles aimed at Israel.  They openly state, that Dimona Nuclear power plant is their big target.  If G-d forbid , the nuclear power plant is hit, all the radiation could be easily be realeased and kill millions of Jews. 

Even if the Dimona Nuclear Power Plant is spared, by the Grace of G-d, Israel will be devastated from the missile attacks.  We all saw that Hezbollah missiles devastated Northern Israel.  And the Israeli military wouldn't or couldn't stop stop the deadly missile barrage.  Israel's current leaders aren't capable of winning this war.  Olmert is an incompetent military leader, as clearly demonstrated in the war with Hezbollah two summers ago.   

Israel is so geographically small, that she will be devastated by missile salvos from Iran.  It is widely known that the defensive shield can't stop all the missles from coming in.  And I'm sure Iran will be firing off decoy missles as well,  in order to burn up the limited supple of arrow missles.
 And the America Military knows that Israel cannot adequaetly defend herself without military support from the United States.  This is what is being coordinated now.

This is the problem in the nutshell... Israel will have to contend with missile attacks from three different fronts, and simultaneously wipe out Iran's nuclear capabilities.  Israel only has a 100 fighter planes to attack Iran with.  The American Military says Israel would need a 1000 long range fighter planes to ensure the success of the mission.  In addition, Israel will have to leave fighter planes back in Israel to defend the country.




http://www.jihadwatch.org/archives/018165.php

Actually Israel has 322 F-16's

I read only 100 of those are capable of completing the mission

[The White Shadow]

These are specially designed F16 fighters to be able to make the trip to Iran, and drop a payload, and make the return trip.  They only have a hundred of these.  These were special ordered from the United States.

[cjd]

I always thought Israel had a more substantial amount of fighter planes at least way more than 100. Someone I knew visited Israel and said they took him to a hilltop somewhere he said when you look down into the valley below all you see is military aircraft. Whatever the outcome Iran has to consider that Uncle Sam is right on their doorstep in Iraq so that alone may regulate what sort of response they would have to any attack on their atomic facilities.

[Lewinsky Stinks, Dr. Brennan Rocks]

This war will almost be a redux of NAZO's savage war against Serbia, with Israel playing the role of Serbia, of course.

Israel will be able to prevail, but only if its population can accept the severe costs and the air force is 100% committed to the mission, both of which are in grave doubt.

[zachor_ve_kavod]

It is likely that the Jews will be blamed for soaring gas prices after an airstrike.  This will pose a grave danger to Jews everywhere.  However, when I way that possible danger against the certain catastrophe resulting from Iranian nukes, there is no alternative but to destroy those facilities.  We fear what could happen if we do strike, we KNOW what will happen if we don't

[Lewinsky Stinks, Dr. Brennan Rocks]

Right now I am not worrying about the gas prices. I am worrying about an attack gone awry or one that is not well planned for. We or Israel must attack--there is no option--but I am not positive that it will be successful. But the choice between attempting to stop a nuclear holocaust and accepting one is obvious.

[The White Shadow]

I always thought Israel had a more substantial amount of fighter planes at least way more than 100. Someone I knew visited Israel and said they took him to a hilltop somewhere he said when you look down into the valley below all you see is military aircraft. Whatever the outcome Iran has to consider that Uncle Sam is right on their doorstep in Iraq so that alone may regulate what sort of response they would have to any attack on their atomic facilities.

You have some of your information right.  Actually the article I read was correct, Israel actually has 102 specially designed F16 fighters that are capable of attacking Iran.

Israel's total number of F16 planes is 322.  But only 102 are specially designed for the attack on Iran.

Here's another article which confirms the number "102" of these specially designed F16 Sufa fighting planes for attack inside Iran. 

http://web.israelinsider.com/bin/en.jsp?enPage=ArticlePage&enDisplay=view&enDispWhat=object&enDispWho=Article^l3328&enZone=Security&enVersion=0&

[Zelhar]

thousands of conventional missiles and rockets wouldn't devastate Israel, one nuke would.

[Zelhar]

I always thought Israel had a more substantial amount of fighter planes at least way more than 100. Someone I knew visited Israel and said they took him to a hilltop somewhere he said when you look down into the valley below all you see is military aircraft. Whatever the outcome Iran has to consider that Uncle Sam is right on their doorstep in Iraq so that alone may regulate what sort of response they would have to any attack on their atomic facilities.

You have some of your information right.  Actually the article I read was correct, Israel actually has 102 specially designed F16 fighters that are capable of attacking Iran.

Israel's total number of F16 planes is 322.  But only 102 are specially designed for the attack on Iran.

Here's another article which confirms the number "102" of these specially designed F16 Sufa fighting planes for attack inside Iran. 

http://web.israelinsider.com/bin/en.jsp?enPage=ArticlePage&enDisplay=view&enDispWhat=object&enDispWho=Article^l3328&enZone=Security&enVersion=0&

We also have 20-25 F-15I (An advanced version of F-15E) which are also capable of reaching Iran. And if necessary, Israel can send more planes by aerial refueling.

[Lewinsky Stinks, Dr. Brennan Rocks]

I hope Israel does not underestimate the IRIAF. Expect it to be substantially tougher than any of the Arab air forces, and perhaps supplemented with Russian pilots.

[The White Shadow]

thousands of conventional missiles and rockets wouldn't devastate Israel, one nuke would.

Depends what your definition of devastate is.  Look what 911 did to America.  That wasn't a nuclear bomb, and it was devastating.   Olmert was already found by the Winograd commissionas responsible for the defeat in the hezbolla war.  Before you scream attack ... attack... look at who is directing the attack.  

[Lewinsky Stinks, Dr. Brennan Rocks]

True. Buttholmert couldn't fight his way out of a wet paper bag. He wouldn't be able to defeat an ant colony in his own kitchen window. He'd slaughter the family cat and offer him to the queen in trying to beg the ants to go back outside.

[The White Shadow]

True. Buttholmert couldn't fight his way out of a wet paper bag. He wouldn't be able to defeat an ant colony in his own kitchen window. He'd slaughter the family cat and offer him to the queen in trying to beg the ants to go back outside.

That's exactly what I'm saying.  Olmert's not capable.  He's the wrong man, at the wrong time. He's actaully the wrong man at any time.   If you want to call him a man.

[Lewinsky Stinks, Dr. Brennan Rocks]

If you want to call him a man.

He isn't a man (should that be "she" isn't a man?). Buttholmert is an anus. No, I take that back. That is an insult to sphincters everywhere. Olmert is an earthworm. No--I take that back too. That would insult annelids. Olmert is an earthworm's anus.

[The White Shadow]

If you want to call him a man.

He isn't a man (should that be "she" isn't a man?). Buttholmert is an anus. No, I take that back. That is an insult to sphincters everywhere. Olmert is an earthworm. No--I take that back too. That would insult annelids. Olmert is an earthworm's anus.

That would be equal to the scum of the Earth

[Zelhar]

thousands of conventional missiles and rockets wouldn't devastate Israel, one nuke would.

Depends what your definition of devastate is.  Look what 911 did to America.  That wasn't a nuclear bomb, and it was devastating.   Olmert was already found by the Winograd commissionas responsible for the defeat in the hezbolla war.  Before you scream attack ... attack... look at who is directing the attack.  

I wouldn't call 911 devastation of America. 6000 Jews had fallen in Israel's war of independence, yet it didn't devastate us, this is how modern Israel was born.  

[The White Shadow]

thousands of conventional missiles and rockets wouldn't devastate Israel, one nuke would.

Depends what your definition of devastate is.  Look what 911 did to America.  That wasn't a nuclear bomb, and it was devastating.   Olmert was already found by the Winograd commissionas responsible for the defeat in the hezbolla war.  Before you scream attack ... attack... look at who is directing the attack.  

I wouldn't call 911 devastation of America. 6000 Jews had fallen in Israel's war of independence, yet it didn't devastate us, this is how modern Israel was born.  

If you lost a family member in 911, I'll bet you wouldn't say that.  Ask some people of those people if 911 was a devastating attack.  Financially, it was devastating as well.  A little country like Israel can easily be devastated. 

[Zelhar]

Yes an attack can devastate life, and families, and cause a great economic loss. But we have to chose between a conventional strike now or a nuclear holocaust later.

[Minuteman]

There is a possibility that conducting an airstrike on Iran can result in something going wrong, mistakes being made, or other factors that were unexpected.  Even weather can limit our ability to complete the job.  I also know that Iran does have very sophisticated weapons, ships, armor, and well trained troops.   I believe if we do a weeks' worth of airstrikes there is no way that they can preserve their nuclear, chemical, and biological facilities.  The amount of hardware and the sophitication of that hardware owned and used by the U.S. I believe could devestate any military in the world.  That is why we need a leader who is going to get the mission accomplished regardless of the popularity of the airstrikes, or how the media reports it.  The worst thing is to conduct an airstrike and immediately withdraw due to an initial failure to destroy all Iran's facilities.

[takebackourtemple]

3. What if everyone is underestimating Iran's capabilities?

   What will Iran's capabilities be in 5,10, or 15 years from now if we do nothing?