Chaim, please respond: why I think you were mistaken on Gaza war

[Lewinsky Stinks, Dr. Brennan Rocks]

Shalom Chaim,

In light of recent developments, I think you were mistaken about one of your points on Olmert's war on Hamas in Gaza in the last Ask JTF. I completely agree with your first conclusion about the air campaign's motives (to start a phony war to create the impression that Kadima and Labor are hawkish on terrorism), but after seeing what has transpired over the past few days, I don't agree with your second explanation (that Kadima really does want to defeat Hamas in order to install Fatah in power there to make a PLO state more palatable to Israelis). Here is why:

--The vast majority of targets hit have been long-abandoned empty buildings. Sound familiar?
--Israel has already caved to ease its "blockade" and is now allowing 100 trucks of supplies into Gaza per day. Does that sound like they want to defeat Hamas?
--Israel is saying it is strongly considering a "truce" to the campaign to give Hamas "the chance" to reciprocate.
--Israel has already acknowledged "not being able to stop" the rocket attacks.
--Israeli leaders may be "negotiating" with Hamas as we speak.

Chaim, this all clearly adds up to the usual--that Israel's leaders don't intend to defeat anything, even at a very small and local level. There will be some Euronazi-mediated resumption of the "truce" (defined as <100 Qassam and Katyusha rockets fired per day), Israel will entirely lift sanctions against Gaza, 5,000 hardcore terrorists will be freed from prison as a "faith-building move", and negotiation for a PLO state will resume.

The reason I disagree that Israel's leaders really want to defeat Hamas is simple: they will create a PLO state whether or not Hamas or more "moderate" factions of the PLO are in power. They do not care. They will say that they prefer Fatah to Hamas in public, but they don't give a rip. They know that they are equally genocidal, and they know that most secular Israeli idiots can be talked into giving even Hamas a state.

Chaimfan.

[Kahane-Was-Right BT]

"(that Kadima really does want to defeat Hamas in order to install Fatah in power there to make a PLO state more palatable to Israelis). "

That is 100% exactly what they are trying to do.   And this policy is foolhardy.   But anyone can see that this is what Kadima/Labor and the leftist establishment of Israel wants.

Their problem is, it will ultimately fail.   The Hamas will never lose public support in Gaza, and Fatah will never gain it.   They will continue to climb out of their holes and send over a few rockets and claim "victory" over Israel, only to regroup or continue launches, while Israel considers a fullscale invasion instead.    And even in the case of fullscale invasion in order to hand over the area to Abbas and his thugs, the Fatah will be seen as Israeli "collaborators" and unwilling to fight the way Hamas is, and the public will never get behind them.   A coup by Hamas or another breakaway militia (just like last time) will be inevitable.

[Kahane-Was-Right BT]

A cessation of rocket fire is Israeli govt's only hope of "defeating" hamas.   Only by humiliating them as "weak" in the eyes of the gazan arabs will Israel have hope of transferring power from hamas to fatah like they want to do.    Despite the fact that Hamas failed in every possible way since becoming a "legitimite" (in the eyes of gazans and vis a vis their election to actual political power) governing entity, the lives of Gazans are completely miserable and probably worse than ever before, nonetheless, Hamas has not ceased its attacks on Israel, nor has it stopped the other Fatah-associated militias (Aqsa brigades, etc) from firing rockets into Israel.    This perceived militancy and stubbornness against Israel is why Gazans prefer Hamas.   Hamas shows it is willing to make war on Israel, even against insurmountable odds and with quite a bit of chutzpah.   That legitimizes them to the gazan arab muslim nazis.   

And I don't think for a second that they will submit and 'stop' rocket attacks at the demand of israel because they know this would deligitimize them to the gazan muslims.    As long as Hamas has the public support, they will wield the power there, short of a fullscale IDF invasion, and even if that did happen, when the IDF gives over to Fatah, Hamas will lead another coup against them, as Fatah is powerless to stop Hamas, and without public support as well.

[Muck DeFuslims]

I don't think Chaim is incorrect to believe that the Israeli government would like to get rid of Hamas. Many of Israel's so called leaders undoubtably believe that a political settlement with Hamas is an impossibility-and that a settlement with Fatah is a practicality.

Regardless of the idiocy of thinking that any negotiations with koranimals can have a fruitful outcome, we must consider the ramifications and likely outcome of the latest events in Gaza.

Will Israel succeed in deposing Hamas in Gaza ? Extremely unlikely.

Will rocket fire from Gaza cease ? Extremely unlikely, although it may be lessened.

Will international pressure to end the 'blockade' of Gaza increase ? Undoubtably, and greatly so.

So the end result of this will likely be a temporarily weakened Hamas regime  (which wins by merely surviving), but a regime which in time will rebuild and be stronger than ever.

In the meantime, Abbas remains in power in Judea and Samaria and hopefully the Arab internecine squabble continues.

For Israel, a weakened but still viable Hamas might just make any further surrender of land unpalatable and a comprehensive settlement very difficult to envision, let alone achieve.

So regardless of the 'why' or reasons for the action in Gaza, this might very well have a decent short term outcome, although the long term prospects are much more dubious.

[DownwithIslam]

I agree with Chaimfan as usual. Smolmert and Barach are clearly trying to repeat the Lebanon 06 performance and are again trying to get Israel to loose another war. Why the hell would that kike allow 100 trucks worth of "humanitarian supplies in?" Why the hell are they trying to avoid "civilian" casualties when the muslim nazis are firing right into civilian areas? Why was hamas allowed to fire rockets all over Israel today, when the Israeli army has the capacity to kill every muzzy in gaza in two minutes? I have no other words to say except for the fact that Chaim Ben Pesach needs to be in charge.

[Lewinsky Stinks, Dr. Brennan Rocks]

I agree with Chaimfan as usual. Smolmert and Barach are clearly trying to repeat the Lebanon 06 performance and are again trying to get Israel to loose another war. Why the hell would that kike allow 100 trucks worth of "humanitarian supplies in?" Why the hell are they trying to avoid "civilian" casualties when the muslim nazis are firing right into civilian areas? Why was hamas allowed to fire rockets all over Israel today, when the Israeli army has the capacity to kill every muzzy in gaza in two minutes? I have no other words to say except for the fact that Chaim Ben Pesach needs to be in charge.

And I agree with DownwithIslam in turn. Actually bro, you made a point that I did not myself, mentally. By "losing" a war against Hamas, Buttholmert and co. can go before the Israeli people claiming that a military solution is impossible, and that surrender (freeing all the Muzzie terrorists from jail and giving all of the rest of Judea, Samaria, the Golan, and Shabaa Farms to them) is the only way to go for peace--that appeasement is the only way to survive. This was exactly why Olmert allowed Hezbollah to kick the IDF's butt in 2006, and I would be far from surprised if that is the motive now.

[Chaim Ben Pesach]

Hamas is so stupid, that it is a miracle from Hashem that the Jews were blessed with such a dumb enemy. If they would only pretend to stop murdering Jews for a short while, the self-hating Judenrat monsters who run Israel would give them everything on a silver platter. Instead, Hamas refuses to negotiate, Hamas insists upon proclaiming every day that they seek Israel's destruction, and Hamas fires thousands of rockets on Israeli towns.

Because of this idiotic Hamas policy, the vast majority of Israelis are currently opposed to any more territorial retreats.

This makes it very difficult for the traitors who run Israel, and for the incoming black Muslim president of the United States, to get an agreement in which the Israelis will go back to the suicidal pre-1967 borders, which are only 6 to 10 miles wide.

If Fatah were in power in Gaza, it would be much easier to get an agreement, G-d forbid. So replacing Hamas with Fatah is indeed a major goal for the self-hating Jewish traitor establishment that runs Israel, and it is a major goal for Washington as well.

[Lewinsky Stinks, Dr. Brennan Rocks]

But Chaim, the government is not acting like they want to beat Hamas. Already there has been a cease-fire (on Israel's part), even as the rockets continue to rain down. I think DownwithIslam is right and that this is just like the 2006 Lebanon "war". Here is what I predict will happen:

--Israel will finalize their "cease-fire".
--As part of the terms of the "peace", Israel will completely end sanctions against Gaza and will enter direct negotiations with Hamas.
--Olmert, Livni, and Bara[c]k will declare that a military resolution is "impossible" and surrender and appeasement are the only way for Israel to have peace.
--In order to get the rockets to stop temporarily, Israel will free like 5,000 Hamas terrorists, agree to hand over the rest of Judea, Samaria, and the Golan, and send a bunch of weapons to Hamas so that they can serve as "peace enforcers" just like Peres and Rabin did after Oslo.

[DownwithIslam]

I agree with Chaim that the worms want fatah in power but I think their desire to loose a war to hamas is even greater. Barak is pissed that he is loosing knesset seats to meretz and a loss to hamas would strengthen his standing among the self hating meretz voters.

[Lewinsky Stinks, Dr. Brennan Rocks]

A "loss" to Hamas would convince many Israelis that victory is completely impossible for Israel and that she must do everything the Muzzies want.

[SavetheWest]

I have to disagree that the leaders of Israel want Hamas to win.  I think you have to look at their motives.  It doesn't help them to lose against Hamas.  It makes them look good to appear hawkish and winners.  Sharon and Olmert just want to do deals and run a corrupt government and not deal with these issues.  I think they want it all to go away and stay in power no matter what.  If they can stay in power by selling out fellow Jews or by going to war, it makes no difference.  They want the easiest travel between two points.  They are also pathelogically obsessed with appearing as fair to the "international community" even though the world mostly hates them.  That's why they will capitulate.

[Lewinsky Stinks, Dr. Brennan Rocks]

It doesn't help them to lose against Hamas.

But it does. If they cannot defeat Hamas, that will send a powerful message to the moronic voters of Israel that Israel is incapable of beating any of her enemies. Dejected, they will then assume that only full appeasement, the creation of a PLO/Hamas terror state out of half of Israel, and the "right of return" for all Arab Nazis will allow them to survive--which, coincidentally, are exactly what Olmert and Livni want.

[SavetheWest]

It doesn't help them to lose against Hamas.

But it does. If they cannot defeat Hamas, that will send a powerful message to the moronic voters of Israel that Israel is incapable of beating any of her enemies. Dejected, they will then assume that only full appeasement, the creation of a PLO/Hamas terror state out of half of Israel, and the "right of return" for all Arab Nazis will allow them to survive--which, coincidentally, are exactly what Olmert and Livni want.

You might be right but they are also worried about appearing as weak leaders.  That is a death blow to any leader if it looks like he can't protect the country.  You may be correct that their motives are more sinister than I thought but I think they are probably just interested in going to luncheons and doing deals like Blagojovich.

[SavetheWest]

They may have been worried about the Kahanist movement getting a couple of seats in the Knesset and really worried about losing to Netanyahu who probably benefited from the stupidity and weakness of the current Israeli leadership.  If they actually are just trying to lose to Hamas so they can show it as inevitable that would be the worst thing ever.