Troubled Saudi groups hit bank sharesBy Robin Wigglesworth
Published: July 8 2009 17:10 | Last updated: July 8 2009 17:10
The financial difficulties of the Algosaibis, one of Saudi Arabia’s richest families and one of the country’s most prominent billionaires, sent bank shares tumbling across the region.
Saudi banking stocks have shed 12.5 per cent since June 1, when Maan al-Sanea’s Saad Group first admitted that it planned to restructure its debts, outpacing the 9 per cent decline of the Saudi stock market. Samba Financial Group has lost nearly a fifth of its value since early June.
Overall, banking shares have performed better in other Gulf markets, but certain banks have slumped on worries that they are exposed to the two groups.
Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, which has admitted to making some loans, and Commercial Bank of Qatar, which has so far declined to comment, have both declined about 18 per cent since early June. The ADX and Doha Securities market have lost 2.5 per cent and 13.6 per cent respectively
EFG-Hermes estimates that the total debt exposure of Gulf and international banks could be between $15bn and $16bn, citing press reports and not counting off-balance sheet exposures.
“In the absence of any formal disclosures by the banks on the size and nature of their exposures to the two business groups, we believe that speculation will continue to increase,” EFG-Hermes analysts wrote in a report. “We expect this to dampen investor sentiment towards the banks.”
Transparency now pays a premium. Tellingly, the banking sector in Oman – where the central bank forced all banks to declare their exposure of about $192m immediately – has gained 1.3 per cent since June 1, broadly in line with the overall Muscat stock market.
Banks in the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia are expected to be among the worst hit by loans to Mr Sanea and the Algosaibi group. In a recent research note, HSBC puts the exposure of Saudi banks at between $4bn and $7bn.
UAE banks have declined to specify what they have lent to the Saudi borrowers, but Sultan bin Nasser al Suwaidi, the central bank governor, recently said the combined exposure was “significant”.
Bankers are now becoming increasingly worried that there could be more trouble lurking in the widespread Gulf practice of “name lending” to prominent families and individuals.
Some fear that other family offices and conglomerates could also be struggling to meet debt commitments in the more conservative banking environment.
Mardig Haladjian, general manager at Moody’s in Limassol, Cyprus, told the FT this week that almost every bank the rating agency had met recently as part of an examination of the regional industry had admitted to “at least two or three restructurings of customer loan relationships”.
Debt restructurings are typically long drawn-out in the Gulf, where the regulatory and legal environment is relatively undeveloped.
“There are a lot of worried credit committees now,” says a senior, Saudi-based international banker. “No one knows which one could be the next family office to struggle. Frankly, the situation is still very murky.”
Source:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/be3469ae-6bd6-11de-9320-00144feabdc0.htmlhttp://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/be3469ae-6bd6-11de-9320-00144feabdc0.html