interesting article on an Israeli attack on Iran

[Aces High]

I agree with the author, with Obama as President,  I wouldn't swear the American's wouldn't try to shoot down Israeli fighter planes, if they flew over Iraqi airspace.

[Aces High]

Sorry, here it is

http://blog.kirkpetersen.net/2009/07/im-betting-against-an-israeli-air-strike-on-irans-nuke-facilities.html

[mord]

The Israeli Navy with submarines and missile cruisers have already  maneuvered within striking distance of Iran 

[Kirk Petersen]

Thanks for the link, Aces.  If you're interested, I posted a followup a few days later, about possible Saudi complicity against Iran:

http://blog.kirkpetersen.net/2009/07/rethinking-an-israeli-attack-on-irans-nukes.html

I have to say, I'm not as down on this president as y'all are in JewsAgainstObama land.  Specifically, I don't believe Obama would give an order to shoot down Israeli fighter jets.  But I could see him scrambling US fighters to try to deter or "wave off"  the Israeli jets... and once those well-armed war machines are within missile range of each other, it's an inherently dangerous situation for all involved.  Accidents can happen.

[Kirk Petersen]

Mord, we cross-posted... I confess I was not even aware that Israel had submarines.

Based on my extensive research in the past few minutes...

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE5621XZ20090703
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/24/AR2006082401050.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dolphin_class_submarine

... I'm highly skeptical about Israel's ability to make surgical strikes from submarines.  The country apparently has three submarines, based in the Mediterranean, which is out of range from Iran.  The Reuters article describes how they "sailed" one of them through the Suez Canal recently, supposedly as a warning to Iran. But Suez is still a long way from the Persian Gulf, and I don't think they can reliably sneak a submarine through the Suez, which slices through more than 100 miles of Egypt.  Also, Iran's nuclear facilities are spread across several locations in different parts of the country -- which implies a need for multiple fighter jets that can change course and re-target in the event that some jets are shot down.

The Washington Post article talks about the submarines serving as a way for Israel to retaliate with nukes if Iran nukes Israel.  That makes more sense to me.  Israel might launch a surprise attack on Iranian nuclear facilities with conventional missiles, but there's zero chance Israel would launch a pre-emptive nuclear strike.

[mord]

I think the subs plus the boats would be used to take out Iran's most dangerous air defenses