Lessons from Tuesday's Primaries

[Confederate Kahanist]

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Elijah Friedeman, The Millennial Perspective

Many places the primaries are nothing more than rote election-year visits to the polls with very little controversy or excitement. But due to the political climate, this year has had more than its fair share of primary drama. New faces have appeared on the scene, challenging veteran politicians, and often, the party establishment. Local races have been thrust into the national limelight, garnering attention and large amounts of money from individuals and organizations.

Several of the limelight races on Tuesday ended surprisingly, and taught us some lessons about the current political state of America.

We learned in Arizona that money still wins. Even a self-professed TEA party candidate like Hayworth couldn't unseat the centric McCain, especially when McCain used upwards of $20 million dollars to protect his seat, an amount virtually unheard of in a Senate primary.
There has been some speculation that the TEA party had hit its peak, and was on a downward trajectory. The Republican Gubernatorial primary in Florida dispelled that myth outright. The TEA party is still alive and kicking. Political newcomer Rick Scott defeated GOP establishment candidate and Florida Attorney General Bill McCollum by a modest three points.

On a related note, it was confirmed that the TEA party has a knack for electing candidates with baggage. Recently Rand Paul and Sharron Angle won their primary races in Kentucky and Nevada, respectively. Paul and Angle both have statements and positions from their past that have caused political trouble. Rick Scott in Florida brings his own political baggage to the table as well, which brings up the question about whether or not the TEA party's picks in the primaries could actually hurt GOP performance in November. One Democratic strategist made the statement that “Florida Republicans nominate(d) for governor a corrupt health care CEO that defrauded taxpayer. Thank you, tea party!"

In Arizona J.D. Hayworth learned the hard way during his campaign against John McCain that being a birther can come back to bite you. McCain used Hayworth's birther stance to convincingly brand him a radical. This approach worked, because the fact is most Americans don't believe that birther stuff, and if a politician stakes out a staunch birther position, it will be used against him.
One of the more encouraging signs for conservatives is that the Republican turnout is going to be huge in November. Sure, that's not surprise, but the Florida races showed just how ready Republicans are to head to the polls. Statewide, about 1.25 million Republicans turned out to place their votes, even though Marco Rubio, the GOP candidate for U.S. Senate was running virtually unopposed. In contrast Democrats only managed around 900,000 in voter turnout, despite having a Senate race to vote in. That's a 350,000 voter advantage for the Republicans. If that enthusiasm can carry over into November, Florida will, no doubt, be solidly red, as will most of the country.

Love her or hate her, Sarah Palin apparently still has the Midas touch, at least in her home state. In Alaska Joe Miller was being trounced by incumbent Lisa Murkowski in the GOP primary for U.S. Senate. That is, until Sarah Palin entered the fray. A robocall from Palin and suddenly the unknown lawyer Joe Miller is in the lead by 2,000 votes in a race that has come down to the wire, a situation that few could have predicted several weeks ago.

The big takeaway from all this is that in November anything can happen anywhere, including little to no GOP gains. Money and messaging go a long way in political campaigns, and there still is a chance, no matter how slight, that Democrats can find some winning issue and push it to election day. What we learn most from these primaries is that you must get out and vote, and not just because of a party or an endorsement, but because of what a candidate believes.

Money and endorsements go a long way, but nothing can trump the voters. Unless, of course, you live in California, and there's a federal judge involved.