Shalom

[Dan Ben Noah]

Shalom

[Zelhar]

Hello Dan, Nice to hear from you!

I think there is one more parameter you need to include and that is how much invested is Ted Cruz's campaign in those states. If it is obvious he has given up on them then perhaps voting Cruz only stands for moral choice but without chance of winning. If he battles hard trying to win then I would say one needs to vote for him and hope for a surprise victory.

You also need to consider that absolute support percentage both per state and nationally has a meaning. In case of brokered convention it is possible that the actual number of votes a candidate received nationally or per state can play a significant criterion.

[Kahane-Was-Right BT]

My guess is kasich to deny trump delegates but I'm wondering what Chaim thinks.

[eb22]

Welcome back,  Dan!

If I was registered in Ohio,  I would vote for Ted Cruz knowing that I would be voting for the candidate I support.  Yet,  the other two strategies you mentioned also seem to make sense. 

Regarding John Kasich,   he probably will emerge as the establishment's choice if Marco Rubio drops out.   Kasich's only path to the nomination seems to be a brokered convention.   

[Rashi]

Lets' check out The Trumps presidential rerferals. Obama is against Trump... Check
The Media is against Trump... Check
The establishment Democrats are against Trump... Check
The establishment Republicans Are against Trump... Check
The Pope is against Trump... Check
The UN is against Trump... Check
The EU is against Trump... Check
China is against Trump... Check
Mexico is against Trump... Check

Ted who?..OHH..You mean that guy that just hired Neil Bush? 

[christians4jews]

Shalom,

I hope all is well here.  I see you have done some great videos lately.  Kol HaKavod.  This question is primarily directed to Chaim, whose political insight I have long respected, although other JTFers may feel free to opine.

Obviously the goal is to get Ted Cruz the nomination.  Being from Ohio, there are some people there whose vote I can influence.  But we have that conundrum once again where the best candidate is behind in the polls and the worst candidate is ahead in a winner take all state.  So my question is, what is the best Ohio voting strategy?  Here are the choices I can see:

1) Vote for John Kasich.  According to the polls (which there aren't that many of), he is the one who has the best chance of taking the 66 delegates away from Trump but has no chance of winning the nomination.

2) Vote for Trump.  Although it may sound nauseating, in a close race between Trump and Kasich, a Trump win in Ohio may pretty much force Kasich to get out of the race (or at least make his money people leave him), which would be good in the long run for Ted Cruz.  Because in a 2-way race between Trump and Cruz, Cruz wins.

3) Vote for Ted Cruz.  The ideologically pure thing to do - vote for the candidate we actually want to win and let the cards fall where they may and hope this is one of those races where he over-performs big enough to win.  Honestly I don't know who a vote for Cruz would hurt more between Trump and Kasich.

"I would note" (as Ted says) that there is a similar situation in Florida with Marco Rubio.  Your input is greatly appreciated.

Toda raba,
-Dan

Excellent question. No way would i vote trump under any circumstance. However in a perverse way we want trump to win florida, but lose ohio. Kasich really doesnt  hurt cruz, and in fact would hurt trump more as hes basically a deomocrat. Whereas most rubio votes go to cruz, as his voters are mainly moderate to strong conservatives and evangelicals.

So i would not begrudge you tactically voting for kasich in the know he will do nothing in the remaining states. Remember he could not even beat cruz in neighbouring michigan. However i definately would not begrudge you voting for ted cruz as  a good showing in ohio despite the winner takes all forces the establishment to raly round him even more.

I am convinced that if cruz will win, hes won in ALL 4 corners of the globe, so hes not just a evangelical trick pony, tge libiterians like him and the fiscal conservatives like him.

A good debate tommorow night and if he can survive the 15th to be within striking distance of the winner takes all closed primaries sedtion(assuming rubio gone), then i think he will go on to win the nomination.

Isnt he polling first in 175 winner takes all california??

[Chaim Ben Pesach]

בס''ד

First of all, baruch hashav (welcome back). It's great to see you.

Your question is difficult to answer because of the complicated situation we are in. I am not sure that my answer is the correct one.

I expect Trump to win both Florida and Ohio. Which may finally get Rubio and Kasich out the race, setting up a two man contest between Trump and Cruz. The fact that Rubio and Kasich may be out would be good, of course. But the bad part is that Trump gains 165 delegates in two large, winner take all states and also gains tremendous momentum. That may make Trump unstoppable. It may be too late for Cruz to catch up at that point. On the other hand, if Kasich and Rubio remain in the race and continue to split the anti-Trump vote, that will probably also lead to Trump winning the nomination, G-d forbid.

In other words, we are in a tough position no matter what. I would vote for Cruz in Florida because I believe that Trump is going to win big anyway in the state. Rubio's campaign is failing in Florida. I think Cruz may actually come in second in Florida. Not that it makes a big difference - whoever comes in first wins all 99 Florida delegates.

In Ohio, I would vote for Kasich to stop Trump from getting the 66 delegates there. Kasich still has a chance in Ohio even though Trump is leading.

I must warn that my advice could be wrong and circumstances could change between now and next Tuesday.

[Kahane-Was-Right BT]

Lets' check out The Trumps presidential rerferals. Obama is against Trump... Check
The Media is against Trump... Check
The establishment Democrats are against Trump... Check
The establishment Republicans Are against Trump... Check
The Pope is against Trump... Check
The UN is against Trump... Check
The EU is against Trump... Check
China is against Trump... Check
Mexico is against Trump... Check

Ted who?..OHH..You mean that guy that just hired Neil Bush? 

All this is relevant how?  What does any of your post have to do with Jews or Israel?  Nothing.  All of a sudden you are some American patriot getting worked up over a tyrant you want them to vote for?

Most, or possibly all the people you listed are ALSO against Cruz equally.

The establishment chose rubio rather than currently 2nd place cruz because the establishment is afraid of cruz

[Kahane-Was-Right BT]

Thank you for your response Chaim.  And thanks also to everyone else. 

It sounds like you're saying that ideally Rubio loses Florida and Kasich steals Ohio from Trump, and that this shouldn't be a problem because Kasich is going nowhere.  The only problem I see is that if this happens, Kasich will probably stay in, and even if Rubio drops out, what would keep the Rubio voters from going to Kasich instead of Cruz?  After Kasich gets a winner take all state under his belt we might be back to square one with a fair percentage of the anti-Trump vote going to Kasich instead of Cruz.  It might not be that much but it might be enough to deny Cruz the nomination.

They should learn their lesson this time.  They chose 3rd place horse rubio and it was nowhere near enough support.  Rallying behind fourth place Kasich would be same insane strategy.  If they really want to make a difference they should back cruz when rubio drops out, if beating trump is really an important goal to them.

[Lewinsky Stinks, Dr. Brennan Rocks]

It's time to ban Alexander Sporn again (Rashi).

[Chiram]

The answer depends on the electoral makeup of your precinct, the geographical location of your county and it's percentage of votes for Kasich.

In a race like this, precinct results can be close, sometimes 1 or 2 votes make the difference, in most cases voting Cruz is recommended.

However, Cruz will likely win more counties in Southern Ohio (around Columbus) than North Eastern Ohio (around Cleveland & Akron) and some areas can be Kasich strongholds.

A review of past results of your precinct & county may offer the necessary information needed to make a more informed decision.

http://maps.ohioelectionresults.com/

[Debbie Shafer]

Thanks Dan, We are all wondering if there will eventually be a brokered convention.   Ohio is sort of up for grabs....

[IsraelForever]

It seems to me that the most important first step that MUST be taken before anything else is to deny Trump's obtaining enough delegates to win the nomination.  And at this point in time, I therefore have come to the conclusion that Florida voters should vote for Rubio and Ohio voters should vote for Kasich.  Step 1:  Stop Trump.  Step 2: Elect Cruz.  Step 2 won't exist if we aren't victorious with Step 1.