JTF.ORG Forum
General Category => General Discussion => Topic started by: Lewinsky Stinks, Dr. Brennan Rocks on July 07, 2008, 01:49:20 PM
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This thread is for everybody, of course, but particular our dear National Chairman, Chaim Ben Pesach. Chaim, please weigh in on the following concerns I have thought up regarding a possible airstrike on Iran. As far as I have seen, we haven't addressed any of this yet. It seems like the only repercussions anybody is interested in discussing are what it will do to the price of oil (likely spiking it to $500/barrel for many weeks/months afterward) or the possibility of the Iranians seizing the Straits of Hormuz.
1. What if the U.S. or Israel doesn't finish the job? Unfortunately, we have to consider the very real chance that the USAF or IAF, either due to incompetence or reticence to harm "Iranian civilians" (more likely the latter), will not really destroy Iran's nuclear facilities. A half-done (I was going to say something else, but not necessary) airstrike that does not actually accomplish the task will be worse than doing nothing at all. In addition to all of the negative consequences that we already know will happen (gas prices far more astronomical than we ever imagined, possible seizure of the Straits, a massive missile blitzkrieg on Israel), the tremendous psychological victory that a failure would give to Iran and the Muslim world would likely inspire an all-out war effort by Iran or other Muslim nations against Israel and/or U.S. forces.
2. What if Americans do not support an airstrike on Iran? It doesn't seem coincidental to me that Obama is leading in the polls and has pledged repeatedly that any military option against Iran's nuclear problem is off the table. It seems to me that most Americans do not want an airstrike on Iran. Most people are so disgusted and turned-off by Bush's fiasco of a "war" in Iraq that any further military action whatsoever, regardless of the scope or reasons, is anathema to them. Average people don't understand the life-and-death gravity of Iran's developing the atomic bomb. They just know that they were promised that Iraq had WMDs as well, and that that turned out to be a lie, and that that turned out to be a disastrous second Vietnam for America. Have you considered that Bush is holding off a strike on Iran for that reason--that doing so would hand the presidency on a silver platter to Obama?
3. What if everyone is underestimating Iran's capabilities? Chaim, this is an area where I think that I disagree with you. On this week's Ask JTF, you dismissed the threat posed by the Iranian navy. I would not be so quick to do so. These are not Arabs; this is a considerably more sophisticated nation. Two years ago, the Iranian proxy Hezbollah almost sunk one of Israel's capital ships by hitting it with a state-of-the-art missile. Israel had no idea that such a weapon even existed. It has been close to three decades since the ayatollah's bungling attempt to take out Saddam Hussein's nuclear program. I believe the Russian-trained IRIAF have learned a lot from this and that Israeli/American pilots will face a considerably tougher foe in them than Saddam Hussein. This isn't even factoring in Iran's missile defenses, crack special forces (look at some of the attacks Iran/Hezbollah have pulled off in Iraq), etc.
Obviously Israel or the United States can overcome these threats, but without 100% commitment and determination--both of which have been lacking in those nations' militaries for over a decade--this has the potential to turn into a bloody fiasco very quickly.
I'd love to hear what you say to the above, Chaim. (And everybody else.)
Chaimfan
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Good point, Persians are not the same as Arabs, they may follow a similar religion but the Persians were a pretty advanced culture and their military is certainly not like Iraqs. Persians defeated the Iraqis who had top of the line American equipment. By the time America invaded Iraq, that equipment had been sitting their rusting and not much of a fight though now much of the war is against terrorists.
Iran is a different situation and I doubt occupation would even be possible. Israel also didn't completely destroy the Iraqi reactor but they did cripple it.
What are the short term and long term benefits?
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Well, the short and long-term benefit is that Iran's nuclear capabilities are crippled. But it won't be a walk in the park and it won't happen unless the whole air force of either nation is committed to getting the job done, regardless of Iranian "civilian" casualties.
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Chaim fan is right on the money. I'm concerned especially about point 3.
Iran has 600 missiles aimed at Israel. They openly state, that Dimona Nuclear power plant is their big target. If God forbid , the nuclear power plant is hit, all the radiation could be easily be realeased and kill millions of Jews.
Even if the Dimona Nuclear Power Plant is spared, by the Grace of God, Israel will be devastated from the missile attacks. We all saw that Hezbollah missiles devastated Northern Israel. And the Israeli military wouldn't or couldn't stop stop the deadly missile barrage. Israel's current leaders aren't capable of winning this war. Olmert is an incompetent military leader, as clearly demonstrated in the war with Hezbollah two summers ago.
Israel is so geographically small, that she will be devastated by missile salvos from Iran. It is widely known that the defensive shield can't stop all the missles from coming in. And I'm sure Iran will be firing off decoy missles as well, in order to burn up the limited supple of arrow missles.
And the America Military knows that Israel cannot adequaetly defend herself without military support from the United States. This is what is being coordinated now.
This is the problem in the nutshell... Israel will have to contend with missile attacks from three different fronts, and simultaneously wipe out Iran's nuclear capabilities. Israel only has a 100 fighter planes to attack Iran with. The American Military says Israel would need a 1000 long range fighter planes to ensure the success of the mission. In addition, Israel will have to leave fighter planes back in Israel to defend the country.
http://www.jihadwatch.org/archives/018165.php
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Chaim fan is right on the money. I'm concerned especially about point 3.
Iran has 600 missiles aimed at Israel. They openly state, that Dimona Nuclear power plant is their big target. If G-d forbid , the nuclear power plant is hit, all the radiation could be easily be realeased and kill millions of Jews.
Even if the Dimona Nuclear Power Plant is spared, by the Grace of G-d, Israel will be devastated from the missile attacks. We all saw that Hezbollah missiles devastated Northern Israel. And the Israeli military wouldn't or couldn't stop stop the deadly missile barrage. Israel's current leaders aren't capable of winning this war. Olmert is an incompetent military leader, as clearly demonstrated in the war with Hezbollah two summers ago.
Israel is so geographically small, that she will be devastated by missile salvos from Iran. It is widely known that the defensive shield can't stop all the missles from coming in. And I'm sure Iran will be firing off decoy missles as well, in order to burn up the limited supple of arrow missles.
And the America Military knows that Israel cannot adequaetly defend herself without military support from the United States. This is what is being coordinated now.
This is the problem in the nutshell... Israel will have to contend with missile attacks from three different fronts, and simultaneously wipe out Iran's nuclear capabilities. Israel only has a 100 fighter planes to attack Iran with. The American Military says Israel would need a 1000 long range fighter planes to ensure the success of the mission. In addition, Israel will have to leave fighter planes back in Israel to defend the country.
http://www.jihadwatch.org/archives/018165.php
Actually Israel has 322 F-16's
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Chaim fan is right on the money. I'm concerned especially about point 3.
Iran has 600 missiles aimed at Israel. They openly state, that Dimona Nuclear power plant is their big target. If G-d forbid , the nuclear power plant is hit, all the radiation could be easily be realeased and kill millions of Jews.
Even if the Dimona Nuclear Power Plant is spared, by the Grace of G-d, Israel will be devastated from the missile attacks. We all saw that Hezbollah missiles devastated Northern Israel. And the Israeli military wouldn't or couldn't stop stop the deadly missile barrage. Israel's current leaders aren't capable of winning this war. Olmert is an incompetent military leader, as clearly demonstrated in the war with Hezbollah two summers ago.
Israel is so geographically small, that she will be devastated by missile salvos from Iran. It is widely known that the defensive shield can't stop all the missles from coming in. And I'm sure Iran will be firing off decoy missles as well, in order to burn up the limited supple of arrow missles.
And the America Military knows that Israel cannot adequaetly defend herself without military support from the United States. This is what is being coordinated now.
This is the problem in the nutshell... Israel will have to contend with missile attacks from three different fronts, and simultaneously wipe out Iran's nuclear capabilities. Israel only has a 100 fighter planes to attack Iran with. The American Military says Israel would need a 1000 long range fighter planes to ensure the success of the mission. In addition, Israel will have to leave fighter planes back in Israel to defend the country.
http://www.jihadwatch.org/archives/018165.php
Actually Israel has 322 F-16's
I read only 100 of those are capable of completing the mission
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These are specially designed F16 fighters to be able to make the trip to Iran, and drop a payload, and make the return trip. They only have a hundred of these. These were special ordered from the United States.
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I always thought Israel had a more substantial amount of fighter planes at least way more than 100. Someone I knew visited Israel and said they took him to a hilltop somewhere he said when you look down into the valley below all you see is military aircraft. Whatever the outcome Iran has to consider that Uncle Sam is right on their doorstep in Iraq so that alone may regulate what sort of response they would have to any attack on their atomic facilities.
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This war will almost be a redux of NAZO's savage war against Serbia, with Israel playing the role of Serbia, of course.
Israel will be able to prevail, but only if its population can accept the severe costs and the air force is 100% committed to the mission, both of which are in grave doubt.
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It is likely that the Jews will be blamed for soaring gas prices after an airstrike. This will pose a grave danger to Jews everywhere. However, when I way that possible danger against the certain catastrophe resulting from Iranian nukes, there is no alternative but to destroy those facilities. We fear what could happen if we do strike, we KNOW what will happen if we don't
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Right now I am not worrying about the gas prices. I am worrying about an attack gone awry or one that is not well planned for. We or Israel must attack--there is no option--but I am not positive that it will be successful. But the choice between attempting to stop a nuclear holocaust and accepting one is obvious.
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I always thought Israel had a more substantial amount of fighter planes at least way more than 100. Someone I knew visited Israel and said they took him to a hilltop somewhere he said when you look down into the valley below all you see is military aircraft. Whatever the outcome Iran has to consider that Uncle Sam is right on their doorstep in Iraq so that alone may regulate what sort of response they would have to any attack on their atomic facilities.
You have some of your information right. Actually the article I read was correct, Israel actually has 102 specially designed F16 fighters that are capable of attacking Iran.
Israel's total number of F16 planes is 322. But only 102 are specially designed for the attack on Iran.
Here's another article which confirms the number "102" of these specially designed F16 Sufa fighting planes for attack inside Iran.
http://web.israelinsider.com/bin/en.jsp?enPage=ArticlePage&enDisplay=view&enDispWhat=object&enDispWho=Article^l3328&enZone=Security&enVersion=0&
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thousands of conventional missiles and rockets wouldn't devastate Israel, one nuke would.
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I always thought Israel had a more substantial amount of fighter planes at least way more than 100. Someone I knew visited Israel and said they took him to a hilltop somewhere he said when you look down into the valley below all you see is military aircraft. Whatever the outcome Iran has to consider that Uncle Sam is right on their doorstep in Iraq so that alone may regulate what sort of response they would have to any attack on their atomic facilities.
You have some of your information right. Actually the article I read was correct, Israel actually has 102 specially designed F16 fighters that are capable of attacking Iran.
Israel's total number of F16 planes is 322. But only 102 are specially designed for the attack on Iran.
Here's another article which confirms the number "102" of these specially designed F16 Sufa fighting planes for attack inside Iran.
http://web.israelinsider.com/bin/en.jsp?enPage=ArticlePage&enDisplay=view&enDispWhat=object&enDispWho=Article^l3328&enZone=Security&enVersion=0&
We also have 20-25 F-15I (An advanced version of F-15E) which are also capable of reaching Iran. And if necessary, Israel can send more planes by aerial refueling.
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I hope Israel does not underestimate the IRIAF. Expect it to be substantially tougher than any of the Arab air forces, and perhaps supplemented with Russian pilots.
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thousands of conventional missiles and rockets wouldn't devastate Israel, one nuke would.
Depends what your definition of devastate is. Look what 911 did to America. That wasn't a nuclear bomb, and it was devastating. Olmert was already found by the Winograd commissionas responsible for the defeat in the hezbolla war. Before you scream attack ... attack... look at who is directing the attack.
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True. Buttholmert couldn't fight his way out of a wet paper bag. He wouldn't be able to defeat an ant colony in his own kitchen window. He'd slaughter the family cat and offer him to the queen in trying to beg the ants to go back outside.
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True. Buttholmert couldn't fight his way out of a wet paper bag. He wouldn't be able to defeat an ant colony in his own kitchen window. He'd slaughter the family cat and offer him to the queen in trying to beg the ants to go back outside.
That's exactly what I'm saying. Olmert's not capable. He's the wrong man, at the wrong time. He's actaully the wrong man at any time. If you want to call him a man.
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If you want to call him a man.
He isn't a man (should that be "she" isn't a man?). Buttholmert is an anus. No, I take that back. That is an insult to sphincters everywhere. Olmert is an earthworm. No--I take that back too. That would insult annelids. Olmert is an earthworm's anus.
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If you want to call him a man.
He isn't a man (should that be "she" isn't a man?). Buttholmert is an anus. No, I take that back. That is an insult to sphincters everywhere. Olmert is an earthworm. No--I take that back too. That would insult annelids. Olmert is an earthworm's anus.
That would be equal to the scum of the Earth ;D
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thousands of conventional missiles and rockets wouldn't devastate Israel, one nuke would.
Depends what your definition of devastate is. Look what 911 did to America. That wasn't a nuclear bomb, and it was devastating. Olmert was already found by the Winograd commissionas responsible for the defeat in the hezbolla war. Before you scream attack ... attack... look at who is directing the attack.
I wouldn't call 911 devastation of America. 6000 Jews had fallen in Israel's war of independence, yet it didn't devastate us, this is how modern Israel was born.
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thousands of conventional missiles and rockets wouldn't devastate Israel, one nuke would.
Depends what your definition of devastate is. Look what 911 did to America. That wasn't a nuclear bomb, and it was devastating. Olmert was already found by the Winograd commissionas responsible for the defeat in the hezbolla war. Before you scream attack ... attack... look at who is directing the attack.
I wouldn't call 911 devastation of America. 6000 Jews had fallen in Israel's war of independence, yet it didn't devastate us, this is how modern Israel was born.
If you lost a family member in 911, I'll bet you wouldn't say that. Ask some people of those people if 911 was a devastating attack. Financially, it was devastating as well. A little country like Israel can easily be devastated.
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Yes an attack can devastate life, and families, and cause a great economic loss. But we have to chose between a conventional strike now or a nuclear holocaust later.
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There is a possibility that conducting an airstrike on Iran can result in something going wrong, mistakes being made, or other factors that were unexpected. Even weather can limit our ability to complete the job. I also know that Iran does have very sophisticated weapons, ships, armor, and well trained troops. I believe if we do a weeks' worth of airstrikes there is no way that they can preserve their nuclear, chemical, and biological facilities. The amount of hardware and the sophitication of that hardware owned and used by the U.S. I believe could devestate any military in the world. That is why we need a leader who is going to get the mission accomplished regardless of the popularity of the airstrikes, or how the media reports it. The worst thing is to conduct an airstrike and immediately withdraw due to an initial failure to destroy all Iran's facilities.
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3. What if everyone is underestimating Iran's capabilities?
What will Iran's capabilities be in 5,10, or 15 years from now if we do nothing?
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What will Iran's capabilities be in 5,10, or 15 years from now if we do nothing?
I know. I just hope the USAF/IAF really, really thinks this through and doesn't try to do it all quickly and cheaply.
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First of all, WE WILL finish the job.
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Finish after israel gets swiss cheesed? Airborne laser please!
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Actually I do want them to do it cheaply. Life is more valuable than money and I want to see a minimal amount of Jewish life lost. When I say minimal, I hope this means no life is lost. I don't want to war against Iraq to be a long drawn out conflict where we stay indefinitely and keep pumping money and lives into. The cheapest war is a use a single nuke with maximum fallout. Doing this will permanently neutralize the threat and cost Israel 0 lives.
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There is a possibility that conducting an airstrike on Iran can result in something going wrong, mistakes being made, or other factors that were unexpected. Even weather can limit our ability to complete the job. I also know that Iran does have very sophisticated weapons, ships, armor, and well trained troops. I believe if we do a weeks' worth of airstrikes there is no way that they can preserve their nuclear, chemical, and biological facilities. The amount of hardware and the sophitication of that hardware owned and used by the U.S. I believe could devestate any military in the world. That is why we need a leader who is going to get the mission accomplished regardless of the popularity of the airstrikes, or how the media reports it. The worst thing is to conduct an airstrike and immediately withdraw due to an initial failure to destroy all Iran's facilities.
For people to say that Israel can't be devastated by a missile attack is complete nonsense.
I don't know if you're aware of Israel's Nuclear Power Plant, in Dimona, but it is a a crucial element in the equation in the upcoming war. I've been trying to explain this point in many posts.
Israel would be devastated if if the Dimona Nuclear Power plant was hit.
Iran is openly stating that they are aiming for Dimona and have moved their missiles in position to fire on it. This is no bluff.
If Dimona is hit ( God forbid) and all that radioactivity is released, it could kill millions of Jews. The land, water and air would be contaminated with radioactivity. The amount radioactivity released would make Chernobyl look like a pin [censored].
In addition to this, we currently have an incompetent Prime Minister who is was found directly responsible for Israel losing the war to Hezbollah, 2 summers ago. This is the man who will be directing the attack on Iran. Keep this in mind.
Questions to be considered:
1)Should Dimona be closed down? (At least until the war is over.) Israel already has a few hundred nukes.
2)How long does it take to close down a Nuclear Power Plant?
3)How long does it take to re open it?
4)Has Israel already closed down Dimona?
The questions are ABC
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Actually I do want them to do it cheaply. Life is more valuable than money and I want to see a minimal amount of Jewish life lost. When I say minimal, I hope this means no life is lost. I don't want to war against Iraq to be a long drawn out conflict where we stay indefinitely and keep pumping money and lives into. The cheapest war is a use a single nuke with maximum fallout. Doing this will permanently neutralize the threat and cost Israel 0 lives.
Don't know if that will be practical though if you are just trying to destroy their reactors. Plus, any use of a nuke produces far-and-wide fallout. This is very serious stuff and we don't want to doom an entire generation of Israelis to horrible deaths from cancer if it is at all avoidable.
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Chaim, please weigh in on the three issues I raised, as well as what can be done to protect Dimona...
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There is a strong possibility that Iran may be preparing or assembling many nukes hiding within their various big cities through a common centralized mullah revolutionary command.
There is strongest possibility that due to a shear misalignment in the original drawing, all the nukes can simultaneously blow up when the wrong command for alignment is processed through.
With Regards... :)
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Actually I do want them to do it cheaply. Life is more valuable than money and I want to see a minimal amount of Jewish life lost. When I say minimal, I hope this means no life is lost. I don't want to war against Iraq to be a long drawn out conflict where we stay indefinitely and keep pumping money and lives into. The cheapest war is a use a single nuke with maximum fallout. Doing this will permanently neutralize the threat and cost Israel 0 lives.
Don't know if that will be practical though if you are just trying to destroy their reactors. Plus, any use of a nuke produces far-and-wide fallout. This is very serious stuff and we don't want to doom an entire generation of Israelis to horrible deaths from cancer if it is at all avoidable.
Plus using nuclear weapons carrys a lot of ...controversy as well. Remember when US dropped nuke on Nagasaki and Hiroshima, we still don't hear the end of it even today. There is a tabboo associated with nuclear weapons. Israel would suffer horribly and be condemned by every nation including the United States (possibly), I don't think Israel will use nukes to do this mission.
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There is a possibility that conducting an airstrike on Iran can result in something going wrong, mistakes being made, or other factors that were unexpected. Even weather can limit our ability to complete the job. I also know that Iran does have very sophisticated weapons, ships, armor, and well trained troops. I believe if we do a weeks' worth of airstrikes there is no way that they can preserve their nuclear, chemical, and biological facilities. The amount of hardware and the sophitication of that hardware owned and used by the U.S. I believe could devestate any military in the world. That is why we need a leader who is going to get the mission accomplished regardless of the popularity of the airstrikes, or how the media reports it. The worst thing is to conduct an airstrike and immediately withdraw due to an initial failure to destroy all Iran's facilities.
For people to say that Israel can't be devastated by a missile attack is complete nonsense.
I don't know if you're aware of Israel's Nuclear Power Plant, in Dimona, but it is a a crucial element in the equation in the upcoming war. I've been trying to explain this point in many posts.
Israel would be devastated if if the Dimona Nuclear Power plant was hit.
Iran is openly stating that they are aiming for Dimona and have moved their missiles in position to fire on it. This is no bluff.
If Dimona is hit ( G-d forbid) and all that radioactivity is released, it could kill millions of Jews. The land, water and air would be contaminated with radioactivity. The amount radioactivity released would make Chernobyl look like a pin schmuck.
In addition to this, we currently have an incompetent Prime Minister who is was found directly responsible for Israel losing the war to Hezbollah, 2 summers ago. This is the man who will be directing the attack on Iran. Keep this in mind.
Questions to be considered:
1)Should Dimona be closed down? (At least until the war is over.) Israel already has a few hundred nukes.
2)How long does it take to close down a Nuclear Power Plant?
3)How long does it take to re open it?
4)Has Israel already closed down Dimona?
The questions are ABC
Dimona is very old built by the french and is leaking. They even have to give out medical kits to citizens in the area and many workers have been diagnosed with cancer who work there. I think it would be in Israels best interest to close down the facility completely.
Recently safety concerns about this 40-year-old reactor have been reported. In 2004 as a preventive measure Israeli authorities distributed iodine anti-radiation tablets to thousands of residents living nearby.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200408/s1171510.htm
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Last Update: Sunday, August 8, 2004. 8:10pm (AEST)
Israel distributes radiation pills to residents near nuclear reactor
Israeli authorities began distributing iodine anti-radiation tablets today to thousands of residents living near the controversial Dimona nuclear reactor.
An army spokesman said that soldiers had begun delivering the Lugul tablets to homes and that a distribution centre was also being opened under the supervision of health experts.
The tablets will be handed out in the towns of Yeroham, Dimona and Aruar, and other surrounding villages as well as to Bedouins living in the southern Negev desert close to the Dimona reactor.
The Government announced back in June that it would distribute the tablets, which have been stored for the last 20 years, as a preventive measure.
It denied that there was any cause for concern about safety measures or levels of radiation, adding that similar precautions had been taken in other foreign countries.
Israeli scientists and politicians have called for the closure of the 40-year-old Dimona plant, saying its age had increased the risk of accidents.
Israel has never publicly acknowledged that it maintains a nuclear arsenal but foreign experts say it has used its reactor at Dimona to produce between 100 and 200 nuclear warheads.
The distribution program will later be extended to the area around the town of Yavne, south of Tel Aviv and close to the small Nahal Sorek plant, the country's second nuclear facility.
--AFP
Israel can always reopen another nuclear facility. I think they have another facility in the north for other purposes (not war), i'm not sure how a transistion would occur or how old their reactor is.
But it's true, Dimona is a huge achilles heel, and could end up causing more problems than it's worth in a tiny country like Israel if it's attacked.
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Dimona is very old built by the french and is leaking. They even have to give out medical kits to citizens in the area and many workers have been diagnosed with cancer who work there. I think it would be in Israels best interest to close down the facility completely.
Recently safety concerns about this 40-year-old reactor have been reported. In 2004 as a preventive measure Israeli authorities distributed iodine anti-radiation tablets to thousands of residents living nearby.
Holy sh**. :o
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There's another point I'm concerned about. Everyone knows that Iran and Syria are colaborating in terms of developing and hiding possible ABC weapons.
If Israel attacks then other countries like Syria could retaliate going beyond using conventional weapons.
It seems almost impossible to take all that into considertion.
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There's another point I'm concerned about. Everyone knows that Iran and Syria are colaborating in terms of developing and hiding possible ABC weapons.
If Israel attacks then other countries like Syria could retaliate going beyond using conventional weapons.
It seems almost impossible to take all that into considertion.
The only way Israel could preempt this would be a good ol' proper carpet-bombing campaign against every single suspected WMD site. I don't feel that the Israel of today even remotely has the cojones to do this.
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The only way Israel could preempt this would be a good ol' proper carpet-bombing campaign against every single suspected WMD site. I don't feel that the Israel of today even remotely has the cojones to do this.
I dont see that carpet bombing will do the job. Since Iran has learnt from what happend in Irak in 1981 many plants are built underground. I guess that you need exact intelligence and targeted groundbraking bombs to make sure you've eliminated also the critical plants.
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By "carpet bombing" I meant thorough coverage of all known sites. Israel never does that because they are afraid of "civilian" casualties.