They used to think it was less than 5%. I personally think its 100%. This just goes to show most economists dont see things until they already happend.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/chance-of-new-recession-at-40-moodys-analytics-2011-09-15?reflink=MW_news_stmpBy Mia Lamar
Europe's sovereign debt crisis and low levels of business and consumer confidence continue to threaten the tenuous U.S. economic recovery, leaving the chance of a fresh recession at 40%, according to Moody's Analytics.
Moody's Analytics, a sister company to credit-ratings company Moody's Investors Service, said a "virtual standstill" in U.S. economic growth, including a sharp slowdown in job creation, poses stiff challenges for economic recovery in the U.S.
"This is not sustainable. Unless spirits improve soon, businesses will ramp up layoffs, consumers will pull back and the economy will fall into another recession," said Chief Economist Mark Zandi.
Zandi added he believes a fresh downturn can be avoided provided policymakers work to restore confidence.
Topic: Moodys: Double Dip Recession Chance: 40% (Read 588 times)