Turkey has a large naval fleet with some modern weapons systems. The submarines are outdated and would not be effective. The Corvettes are state of the art, but most of the frigates are useless in an offensive campaign without adequate air cover. In your question we are talking about a Turkish "offensive" operation meant to break a naval blockade that is legally recognized. Turkey's air force simply does not have the force projection capabilities to successfully defeat Israel in a maritime/air conflict for control of the sea near Gaza, let alone for control of Israel's oil and gas fields off Israel's northern coast (which is the real reason the Turk's are creating this conflict, not Mavi Marmara nor Gaza). Dumbed down F-16s are no match for Israeli versions of the F-15 and F-16 top line versions with local upgrades, not to mention the fact that Israeli fighter pilots are considered the best in the world.
Without sufficient air cover, any small Turkish convoy, including ships with anti aircraft capabilities, are sitting ducks against Israeli missiles which can be launched from ground, air or sea platforms. Israel has the advantage of being a satellite space power which Turkey is not and Israeli UAV and UAS unmanned sea platforms are a major problem. Turkish UAV platforms need servicing from their country of origin, you guessed it Israel, and that won't happen. The US recently denied a Turkish request for predator drones.
On the flip side, Israel too lacks force projection capabilities to deal Turkey any definitive defeat. The size of the Turkish army and navy is also a deterrent in this respect. Israel's air force would bear a huge burden of neutralizing a Turkish flotilla while battling to gain air superiority, not an easy task since Israel's navy is very small in comparison to Turkey's. The closer, however, Israel can lure this battle close to its shores, the more likely it is that some of Israel's artillery corps platforms can be used in this battle in addition to existing missile systems.
Finally, Turkey has no access to or ability to activate any of the nuclear arsenal currently stored in Southern Turkey. Without the US, these weapons are not in play. Essentially, this means that Turkey will be engaging in offensive war against a bona fide nuclear power, while it is not a nuclear power. It is very difficult to imagine that a nation would launch a war against an opponent that represents an existential threat. Another reason that war will not likely take place over Gaza is that no one is more familiar with the Israeli military than the Turkish army. They know that Israel is unlike any doe they have encountered in the past. Turkey is more likely then, to instigate something against Cyprus or Greece over drilling rights in the eastern med. Sea, much closer to home so as to neutralize Israel's home court advantage if you will. Such a tactic greatly diminishes Israel's power. To counter this, Israel has entered into a military pact with Greece and has already sent part of its air fleet to Greek bases. Turkey knows that the only way it can defeat Israel is to launch an all out naval war to blockade Israel and choke off supply routes. This would devastate Israel, cause mass casualties to Turkish air and naval assets, and place Israel under an existential threat. Turkey, however, would cease to exist courtesy of three well placed Jericho III missiles, and no one in the world, not even NATO would say a thing.
Turkey will stand down, and will not engage Israel in war. Only the US, China and Russia could defeat Israel in all out war as they are the only powers with true force projection capabilities. Once Erdogan is replaced or thrown out by the people, Turkey and Israel, which I consider natural allies if Turkey returns to its Kemalist roots, will f back to being allies. The same will happen in Iran eventually.
1 week ago Report Abuse Asker's Rating: Asker's Comment: Excellent a very well thought out argument. You are correct no one can defeat Israels military leviathan
Topic: Israel Vs Turkey in War. Pretty interesting analysis (Read 1731 times)