Walla Poll

[Tag-MehirTzedek]

http://www.theyeshivaworld.com/news/headlines-breaking-stories/274189/walla-poll-right-wing-gains-as-knesset-prepares-to-dissolve.html

Walla Poll: Right-Wing Gains as Knesset Prepares to Dissolve (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); (Wednesday, December 3rd, 2014) As the Knesset completes its final days before dissolving and moving to a transition government, a Walla News poll shows that if elections were held today, Likud, Bayit Yehudi, and Yisrael Beitenu would receive 52 seats, nine more mandates then the three parties have today. The TNS Teleseker poll was conducted on Tuesday evening 10 Kislev after the announcement of the firing of Ministers Yair Lapid and Tzipi Livni.

Parenthesis indicate the number of seats in the current Knesset:

Likud: 23 (18)
Bayit Yehudi 17 (12)
Labor 12 (15)
Yisrael Beitenu 12 (13)
Yesh Atid 11 (19)
Moshe Kahlon 10 (0)
Yahadut Hatorah 8 (7)
Shas 7 (11)
Meretz 5 (6)
The Movement 5 (6)
Kadima 0 (2)
Arab Parties 10 (11)

Who is most suited to serve as prime minister? 31% Binyamin Netanyahu 12.9% Yitzchak Herzog 9.7% Naftali Bennett 9.3 Moshe Kahlon 6.9% Yair Lapid 6.4 Avigdor Lieberman This means if Shas and Yahadut Hatorah are willing to join the right-wing formula above, a coalition of 67 can be formed. The centrist/left-wing results are less encouraging as Labor, Yesh Atid and The Movement earn a combined 28 seats as compared to the 40 seats they hold in the current Knesset. Labor declines but maintains stability while Yesh Atid is almost cut in half. This leaves Moshe Kahlon, a Sephardi Jew with roots in Likud. His campaign will highlight social issues and place less of an emphasis on right-wing/left-wing issues. At present, it remains unclear which coalition he would prefer, a man with right-wing roots yet an economic hashkafa more in line with the Labor party and its natural allies. He left Likud after coming to the realization he cannot come to terms with Mr. Netanyahu’s capitalistic outlook and social policies. The poll included 500 respondents over the age of 18, who represent a cross-section of Israeli adults. The margin of error is two seats. (YWN – Israel Desk, Jerusalem)

[Tag-MehirTzedek]

Who do you think will be in the next coalition?

I predict (hypothesize) Likud: 23  Bayit Yehudi 17 Yisrael Beitenu 12 = 52

+ Moshe Kahlan   10      =      62

And possibly 1 of the 2 Haredi parties (either Shas or UTJ but not both).  ( + 7 or 8 )

= 69 or 70.

[Kahane-Was-Right BT]

The fact that a socialist would get this much support reflects a sad state of affairs.

[Tag-MehirTzedek]

The fact that a socialist would get this much support reflects a sad state of affairs.

http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_article.php?id=21953

 Looks like the Socialist is getting some more votes (not to mention the other socialists already in the Knesset and other parties).

[Tag-MehirTzedek]

New Poll

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/188446#.VIdeUsIo-1t

[Kahane-Was-Right BT]

Whaaaaa?

How did labor go from 12 to 22 in these polls in a matter of days?!

[Binyamin Yisrael]

If that poll is true, Labor would win a plurality but would not be able to form a government. So Likud would form the government just like when in 2009 Tzippi Livni couldn't form a government. The Right Wing parties together will be a majority. But there are more Right Wing parties (or phony Right Wing parties) than pure Left Wing ones.

[Kahane-Was-Right BT]

If that poll is true, Labor would win a plurality but would not be able to form a government. So Likud would form the government just like when in 2009 Tzippi Livni couldn't form a government. The Right Wing parties together will be a majority. But there are more Right Wing parties (or phony Right Wing parties) than pure Left Wing ones.

But did something major happen in israel that just caused this sudden surge for labor?

[Binyamin Yisrael]

But did something major happen in israel that just caused this sudden surge for labor?

I don't know.

[Tag-MehirTzedek]

But did something major happen in israel that just caused this sudden surge for labor?

 They joined together with Livni (or talk about it).

 I don't get how any (even with their messed up social and other views) can vote for someone like Herzog that has absolutely no charisma and looks like a frickin zombie. As bad as Lapid is at least he has some personality. Herzog and Livni both look like zombies.

[Binyamin Yisrael]

They joined together with Livni (or talk about it).

 I don't get how any (even with their messed up social and other views) can vote for someone like Herzog that has absolutely no charisma and looks like a frickin zombie. As bad as Lapid is at least he has some personality. Herzog and Livni both look like zombies.

Lapid is an ugly punk. He's vicious in his appearance which matches his viciously anti-religious inside.

[Binyamin Yisrael]

It's good to get rid of those Sharonesque parties. The legacy of those parties (Kadimah and the "Movement") is the Expulsion and Sharon's break away from Likud. It's better to call them what they are rather than pretend to be Centrists which is really another word for Leftists.

Now it shows all the outright Left parties to have only have 38 seats (Labor, Meretz and Ein Atid). The Left can never form their own government without a religious party or some party that comes out of nowhere like Kahlon's party (In Smolmert's regime, the Pensioners played that role.). The only way the Left is ever a majority is when they rely on votes from the Arab parties in the opposition. If we got rid of the Arab parties, the Right Wing parties would be larger since the majority of Jews in Israel are Right Wing.

The Left is a mess. Who knows how many Labor Party chairmen there have been? Since Ehud Barak resigned from being Prime Minister, it seems like they change their leader every year. I can't even keep track of it. Previously all their chairmen have been PM at least once. With Likud, it's still true that all their Chairmen have been PM. Begin, Shamir, Sharon, and Netanyahu are their only party leaders.

Most Jews would be willing to vote for a real Right Wing party if given a chance. The demographics show that only parties claiming to be Right Wing can sustain large numbers since the fall of Oslo.

[Tag-MehirTzedek]

http://jtf.org/forum/index.php/topic,77176.msg640838.html#msg640838

[Kahane-Was-Right BT]

The Left can never form their own government without a religious party or some party that comes out of nowhere like Kahlon's party (In Smolmert's regime, the Pensioners played that role.). The only way the Left is ever a majority is when they rely on votes from the Arab parties in the opposition.

But wasn't that always true?   And yet, the religious parties sometimes make a pact with them when it's convenient for them ($$$$) and there are parties out of nowhere happening all the time.   So it's no different than it's always been.

[Binyamin Yisrael]

But wasn't that always true?   And yet, the religious parties sometimes make a pact with them when it's convenient for them ($$$$) and there are parties out of nowhere happening all the time.   So it's no different than it's always been.

Pre-Oslo it was different. It was common for Mafdal to join the governments of Mapai and the Labor Party. Back then the Leftists were more Right Wing on Land of Israel issues than Likud of today. After Begin became PM, that changed. After Begin, Shimon Peres was PM in a unity government with Shamir. Then Rabin and Peres had a minority government that relied on the Arabs and a few Shas members. Barak had the religious parties for a year and then they left his government over the start of the Oslo War. But with Barak, he was PM because of direct elections which no longer exist. That's why Sharon was able to form a government with the same Knesset. Barak used that to his advantage and resigned so Labor would keep its seats. That way there was only a PM elections and not a Knesset election. Sharon then formed a unity government even though he didn't have to. Instead of having all the Right Wing parties in the government, he invited Labor. Yisrael B'Aliyah, the party of Sharansky played the role of a centrist party in that Knesset. They could go either way which is what enabled Barak to form his government in the first place.

There was talk of a Labor-National Religious coalition in 2006 led by Amir Peretz to try to block Smolmert of Kadimah from forming a government. That would have been going back to the days of Mapai. I think Labor was the lesser of the evils when compared to Kadimah.