Trump wins, will win next week probably the same, and then be crushed

[Israel Chai]

http://www.redstate.com/leon_h_wolf/2016/04/20/big-win-trump-next-tuesday-will-worse.-heres-shouldnt-despair/

A Big Win for Trump, and Next Tuesday Will be Worse. Here’s Why You Shouldn’t Despair

By: Leon H. Wolf (Diary)  |  April 20th, 2016 at 09:54 AM  |

RESIZE: AAA

There’s a lot of despair going around the conservative blogosphere this morning about Trump’s larger-than-expected victory in New York last night. Definitely, it would have been better if Trump had lost 20 or 25 delegates instead of the 3-5 he actually lost, no question about that.

I furthermore expect that next Tuesday will be an equally bad day for the not-Trump forces. I would expect that Trump will get either all or nearly all the delegates that are on offer in the slate of New England states that vote in one week. I expect that Wolf Blitzer and John King might have a literal crown made, complete with precious jewels, and will place it on Trump’s head on live television, during next Tuesday’s post-primary coverage.

Of course, CNN and the other networks have been calling this thing over since Trump won South Carolina – but Republican voters have always had other ideas. And the simple fact is that if you had looked at the primary calendar on day one, you could easily have predicted that April 19th and 26th would be Donald Trump’s biggest days in the entire primary. And yet, even if he sweeps or nearly sweeps next Tuesday, he’s still going to be sitting around 950 delegates, or 970 at most.

Here’s why you shouldn’t despair: the month of May is likely to be a bloodbath for Trump. Ted Cruz has done an admirable job of locking down Washington, and Oregon is likely to follow suit. Trump isn’t even meaningfully contesting Nebraska. West Virginia is a wildcard, because no one knows how the South would have voted in a three-man race. The key lynchpin of the entire month will be Indiana, where Trump will be running against an extremely strong headwind. It’s entirely possible that Trump gets 20 delegates or less in the entire month of May.

The end result of this is that Trump is going to go into the final contest of the primary still needing to get about 80% of the delegates that are up for grabs on that day. And given that he is likely to get blanked in Montana and South Dakota, his chances of achieving that look increasingly slim.

The most likely result right now, even after last night’s voting, is that Trump ends up somewhere between 1100 and 1200 pledged delegates. The decision, then, is still likely to be made at the convention, even after all is said and done.

So don’t buy the hype. This thing isn’t over, not by a long shot.

[Israel Chai]

Current Status is just fine, we’ve actually won.
Michael Harrington·Wednesday, April 20, 2016
The current real numbers are just fine, Trump was expected to win New York, optimistic news I had received not with standing. Yes Trump got 90 delegates. Yes he did well. Yes Kasich got 5 delegates, his first in how long? Yes yes and yes. And No I am not even bothered.
 Real Numbers: Cruz 696 Delegates to Trumps 815 Delegates.   
Whats left now?
California 172
Indiana 57
New Jersey 51
Washington 44
Maryland 38
Nebraska 36
West Virginia 34
South Dakota 29
Connecticut 28
Oregon 28
Montana 27
New Mexico 24
Rhode Island 19
Pennsylvania 17 +54
Trump needs to get 422 delegates, out of that list.
He loses Montana in full, the 54 in Pennsylvania are gone, Oregon is a wipe for him (he gets 3-6), Washington is already soured to him (maybe 4-6 there), Indiana is looking like Ted Cruz, S. Dakota is Ted Cruz, no one will give Nebraska to Trump, New Mexico is unlikely Trump... These “losses” (we will leave the gains in play) add up to 283 of 658, leaving 337 delegates left for Trump to try to win. Look he ain’t taking all of California either, even if he gets 120 out of there he loses 52 more, which means he comes up short by 137 missing delegates.
Yes you read that correct, even if we tilt California for Trump he cannot win, he misses by 137 delegates. Even if he wins three small States, or Indiana and a medium State, he comes up missing by far too much.

    Mathematically Trump has been out for a while, it is a Contested Convention.

In fact it is worse than that for Donald Trump because he messed up in West Virginia and automatically loses 3 delegates minimum there, he started his campaign office in California so late that a number of us pundits think he cannot get delegates for all the Congressional Districts there, and Rhode Island is a proportional election.

    Trump cannot get enough delegates from the remaining States even if he picks up 2 major surprise wins.

Ted Cruz has seen an additional bunch of Delegates arrive with his securing S. Carolina for sure (while not fully voted yet you can take this to the bank), Nebraska voted their delegates for Cruz, and Indiana is a done deal according to Party Insiders. Those 54 in Pennsylvania are rumored to be in contention, but not for Trump. Apparently Kasich is making a big play there. However it still hurts Trump significantly, leaving him no way to continue on.
One of the most surprising developments was Florida and New Jersey. Rubio had his team walk over everyone in Florida, those 99 delegates are his. In New Jersey Christie is actually strong-arming the leadership in a potentially illegal manner, and is securing almost all of the slates there. Yes you read those right, they secured their home States and not for Trump.
However I reiterate, Trump has already lost the challenge to get to 1237 delegates. There is NO CHANCE OF A TRUMP PRESIDENCY.

    Current Pledged Delegates for Cruz is estimated by me to be at 865 delegates.

Where does Ted Cruz secure the remaining delegates? He needs 372 to win the convention on 2nd or 3rd ticket (vote).
Oregon 28
Oklahoma 43
California (projected) 100
South Dakota 29
Pennsylvania (Possible Kasich) 54
Arkansas 40
Kansas 40
Kentucky 46
Montana 27
The list goes on. He have only really gotten a bit over half way in the actual positions. Ted Cruz is the champion here, no other is coming close currently. There is well in excess of 450 delegates I deem “likely” to “Guaranteed” for Ted Cruz. Due to the machinations of Kasich, Rubio, and Christie the establishment has secured 235 delegates already.
This means when Ted Cruz gets 137 more delegates to pledge to him that Trump is mathematically out there as well without offering one of them (Not Rubio) the Vice Presidency, and he is 222 delegates being pledged for Ted Cruz to be guaranteed mathematically eliminated in a contested convention.

    The odds of Trump getting the nomination is now under 1% in my view.

Yes that statement is correct. Trump cannot turn the tide in enough States, his efforts in New Mexico are also showing lagging (he had to strong arm them to extend the time he needs to search for people to be potential delegates) and he cannot win so many pledges in an obvious hostile venue in the remaining time. Trump is done.
So, here I am, the first of the major and minor Statisticians, I am calling the election formally for Ted Cruz. Yes this is my formal announcement. I was going to wait until April 27th, but the nature of the States has been provided to me by various sources, and I am confident that even with two major upsets that Trump is not going to win.
Congratulations Ted Cruz for winning the Republican Nomination for President.

[Israel Chai]

[angryChineseKahanist]

....meanwhile

[Israel Chai]

....meanwhile

?

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/434267/donald-trump-new-york-primary-win-changes-nothing

Nothing Changed Yesterday—And Trump Is Still Not on the Path to Nomination fullscreen (Scott Olson/Getty) Print Article Adjust font size AA by Jeremy Carl April 20, 2016 10:13 AM @jeremycarl4 Before we begin debunking, let’s start with the obvious: It was undoubtedly a good night for Trump and unsurprisingly so, as NR’s Henry Olsen predicted on election eve. Trump looks to have taken 90 delegates and 60 percent of the vote, somewhat better than projections, although most election-eve forecasts had him taking at least 85 or so of New York’s 95 delegates (Olsen had him pegged for 87). But despite his victory, Trump got only a very modest bump from New York last night. And despite the breathless TV and print commentary from our New York–centered media, he still faces huge obstacles if he wants to get a sufficient number of delegates to be nominated on the first ballot. And if he is not nominated on the first ballot, given Cruz’s wildly successful delegate strategy, it is unlikely he will be nominated at all. In fact, according to the analysis of the widely-respected 538.com, Trump actually fell just short of the number of delegates he needed in New York to put himself on the path to the magic number of 1,237. And, though he should have a good week next week when Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island vote, he will need a New York–level performance, not just a victory, if he wants to substantially improve his nomination odds. New York and the five states voting next Tuesday are all part of the Democrats’ “blue wall.” Democrats have won all of these states in each of the last six elections. Only one of these states (Pennsylvania) has given more than 45 percent of its vote to the GOP candidate in any of the last six elections. New York and Rhode Island have never even given 40 percent to GOP candidates during this time. RELATED: Anti-Trump Forces Routed in New York It will be a major surprise if Trump loses any of the April 26 “Acela corridor” states. In fact, the 538.com base projections, which still have Trump coming up almost 80 delegates short of the 1,237 he will need for a first-ballot nomination, project that he will easily win almost all of the delegates in these states next week. If Cruz (whom, full disclosure, I have endorsed), or even the delusional John Kasich, were to somehow surprise him, most likely in Pennsylvania or Maryland, it would constitute a major setback for Trump. The real final charge for the nomination begins not next week in the Northeast, but the following week in Indiana. Even in a best-case scenario for Trump, he can probably gain no more than ten or 15 delegates above current projections, still leaving him far off pace to clinch the nomination. On the downside, if he unexpectedly loses anywhere on April 26, his path to 1,237 delegates is almost certainly foreclosed. An April 26 sweep is already priced into Trump’s stock. The real final charge for the nomination begins not next week in the Northeast, but the following week in Indiana, the first of the final ten states to vote on ground that is much more favorable to Cruz. In fact, Cruz is favored in most of the last ten states, with only New Jersey and (narrowly) California falling into the Trump column. (Tim Alberta has an outstanding look at Cruz’s strategy in Indiana on NRO today.) There is no denying that Indiana is critical for both Trump and Cruz – Cruz can survive a loss there, but an overwhelming victory by Trump in Indiana could make 1,237 delegates a reasonable possibility for the businessman and would definitely be a substantial blow to Cruz’s chances. In contrast, if Cruz wins in Indiana, the “swingiest” of the states that he is favored to win down the stretch, Trump would face almost impossible odds in getting to 1,237. Until Indiana, almost every delegate Cruz wins is upside – and his biggest risk (even more so than Kasich’s crazy-uncle spoiler candidacy) is that a sloppy pro-Trump media narrative overwhelms him before he can get back to the campaign trail, where he will almost certain close strongly. Barring a very unusual occurrence, this contest will not be decided until (at the earliest) the final states vote on June 7. RELATED: Why Cruz Is Going All-In on Indiana Even in Trump’s New York victory, there were warning signs for any mainstream GOPers tempted to get behind him. According to exit polls, he took 63 percent of the over-45 vote but just 50 percent of those 45 and under. He took just 52 percent of working-class (under 50K family income) Republicans, far short of the 63 percent he took among wealthier Republicans. And perhaps most important, he won less than half as many votes as Hillary Clinton and just two-thirds as many as Bernie Sanders. His “dominant” performance was only dominant in the context of a state with a small minority of GOP voters. GOP turnout was up moderately compared with 2008 (the last open-seat presidential race in New York) but there was absolutely nothing in New York’s GOP turnout to suggest that Trump would be a game-changer in terms of putting new states in play. In fact, Trump took just 50 percent of independents, far worse than his share among New York’s atypically liberal Republicans. Nor was the news much better for Kasich, the Baghdad Bob of the 2016 campaign, who was busy yet again claiming momentum after another 30-point-plus shellacking. There is much to suggest that his performance in New York was something of a one-off, though he’ll likely do respectably on April 26 because of the relatively favorable demographics of the states voting then. After that, things look bleak for Kasich, unless you assume that his only role in the race is to help Trump win the GOP nomination. More Donald Trump The Road Ahead for Trump Might Be Almost as Friendly as New York Soft Bigotry of Low Expectations Dep’t. Trump’s Prospects Looking at New York’s exit polls, there’s substantial evidence that Cruz’s “New York values” comments hurt him there — which won’t be a problem for him next week. The exits showed that Kasich dominated among the #NeverTrump crowd in New York. Among the 24 percent of voters who said they would not vote for Trump if he were the GOP nominee, Kasich won a staggering 72 percent of them, far better than he had ever previously done with this demographic. He won 40 percent of voters who decided in the last week (far better than his 25 percent overall), suggesting that he maximized his value among late deciders. And perhaps most surprisingly, he beat Cruz among self-described conservatives and Evangelical Christians. The exit polls strongly indicate that Cruz and New York had a passionate, mutual non-love affair, so much so that he dramatically underperformed even in his strongest demographics. Don’t expect a repeat of that going forward. In a week’s time, we’ll likely be back here analyzing some more Trump “victories.” But his win in New York and a follow-up sweep on April 26 are just what he’s expected to do. And he’ll have to exceed, not just meet, expectations in May and June if he wants to win the nomination. — Jeremy Carl is a research fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University.

Read more at: http://www.nationalreview.com/article/434267/donald-trump-new-york-primary-win-changes-nothing

[cjd]

....meanwhile

Back at the ranch Ke-mo sah-bee was having a feud 

[realist26]

Whilst Cruz is a great candidate, he would have zero chance of beating Hillary.  Unfortunately, retarded Americans care more about transgender abortion rights than fiscal prudeness, national security, state of the economy and foreign policy.  Cruz would get almost zero votes from women and blacks - basically 60% of the electorate.  I am now supporting Trump because he actually has a chance of beating Hillary

[Zelhar]

So whom did you vote for in the end?

Back at the ranch Ke-mo sah-bee was having a feud 

[Israel Chai]

Whilst Cruz is a great candidate, he would have zero chance of beating Hillary.  Unfortunately, retarded Americans care more about transgender abortion rights than fiscal prudeness, national security, state of the economy and foreign policy.  Cruz would get almost zero votes from women and blacks - basically 60% of the electorate.  I am now supporting Trump because he actually has a chance of beating Hillary

That is the stupidest statement that I have ever heard this week. And I talk to Chumptard. Not only does Trump lose the conservatives that didn't vote for Rhiney, he loses the establishment that did. Cruz is inspiring people like Regan did. You are dead wrong, just like they were wrong about Regan. America wants a real conservative, and when Chump is out and the election isn't about hands, calling people names, and general filth, Cruz will get his chance to explain conservative values to voters uninterrupted, and we see time and time again, when Cruz talks, he earns supporters out of every nook and cranny you couldn't imagine.

Trump got his best vote in New York, and got less votes than Sanders. He can't break 35% in the election, it would be the biggest blowout in American history since Regan.

Chump never had a chance, and we all saw it before the election. You don't win an election with a 60% unfavorable rating.

Besides that, Trump said to the New York Times that he'll let Iran get nukes, so there is no difference whatsoever between him and Hillary. The only candidate that matters is Cruz, and he's the only one that can beat Hitlery.

Are you basing this on anything other than the fallacy of unelectability that has been disproven again and again? If America wants a commie, why did they hate Rhiney?

You can't be serious about what you're saying.

[Nachus]

                                                                                                      

 Let's all hope and pray that this comes to fruition. He's not suited for the role of
 leader of the "free world" and cannot realistically defeat Hillary and the great Ted Cruz
 is perfectly capable of accomplishing this.

[Nachus]

                                                                                                        


 It's true that Trump won New York however, it's still not guaranteed he'll dominate in
 the rest of the states, with everything considered including second and or third ballot
 possibilities, it might hopfully lead to a brokered or contested convention scenario which
 short of establishment interference with an alternative candidate  will guarantee that
 Ted Cruz will win the Republican nomination.
 

[realist26]

That is the stupidest statement that I have ever heard this week. And I talk to Chumptard. Not only does Trump lose the conservatives that didn't vote for Rhiney, he loses the establishment that did. Cruz is inspiring people like Regan did. You are dead wrong, just like they were wrong about Regan. America wants a real conservative, and when Chump is out and the election isn't about hands, calling people names, and general filth, Cruz will get his chance to explain conservative values to voters uninterrupted, and we see time and time again, when Cruz talks, he earns supporters out of every nook and cranny you couldn't imagine.

Trump got his best vote in New York, and got less votes than Sanders. He can't break 35% in the election, it would be the biggest blowout in American history since Regan.

Chump never had a chance, and we all saw it before the election. You don't win an election with a 60% unfavorable rating.

Besides that, Trump said to the New York Times that he'll let Iran get nukes, so there is no difference whatsoever between him and Hillary. The only candidate that matters is Cruz, and he's the only one that can beat Hitlery.

Are you basing this on anything other than the fallacy of unelectability that has been disproven again and again? If America wants a commie, why did they hate Rhiney?

You can't be serious about what you're saying.

America does not want a true conservative.  Look at the demographics in 2016.  Between blacks (10%), hispanics (20%), young brainwashed college millenials (20%), libtarded women that vote purely on abortion, the maths simply does not work.  The maths is even worse in the swing states.  It would simply be impossible for Cruz to win the presidency. 

Whilst Cruz is inspiring and intelligent, Trump would bring out some of the 45% of Americans that don't vote. 

[Israel Chai]

America does not want a true conservative.  Look at the demographics in 2016.  Between blacks (10%), hispanics (20%), young brainwashed college millenials (20%), libtarded women that vote purely on abortion, the maths simply does not work.  The maths is even worse in the swing states.  It would simply be impossible for Cruz to win the presidency. 

Whilst Cruz is inspiring and intelligent, Trump would bring out some of the 45% of Americans that don't vote.

Last election proved they do. And the one before. Prove they don't.

The math on real polls show Cruz winning, and Trump losing. All the actual polls. Prove Trump could bring anyone out, considering the tens of millions of conservatives won't show, and the establishment moderates that did vote for Romney won't vote.

Trump is dreadful and insane, and the #NeverTrump movement is them and more.

[Israel Chai]

K so happened as expected, now crunch time. call potential voters in Cali and tell them Cruz for Americans.

http://townhall.com/tipsheet/christophernmalagisi/2016/04/27/ted-cruz-can-still-deny-trump-gop-nomination-n2154534

ed Cruz Can Still Deny Trump GOP Nomination
Christopher N. Malagisi
Christopher N. Malagisi
|
Posted: Apr 27, 2016 12:37 PM
Ted Cruz Can Still Deny Trump GOP Nomination

To Ted Cruz, John Kasich, and #NeverTrump Allies -- time for everyone to take a big deep breath! Nothing happened last night that was not already predicted and considered in the GOP nomination delegate count. Read Scott Rasmussen’s excellent breakdown of the primary this week and how everyone should keep the results in perspective.

There are still 10 states left, and Ted Cruz is poised to win 5-7 of them. Here's the breakdown:

CRUZ MUST & WILL WIN:
May 3 - Indiana (57 delegates) - Winner take all

Cruz needs to win this, and with Kasich not campaigning here and a potential endorsement from Gov. Mike Pence in the wings, Cruz should be able to win this and swing momentum back his way.

May 10 - Nebraska (36) - Closed primary

Cruz is poised to win in Nebraska especially as it is a closed primary, which means only registered Republicans can vote.  Cruz tends to do really well in these kinds of situations.
May 24 - Washington (44) - Closed primary

All indications show that Cruz is poised to do well here, especially as it is another closed primary.
Jun 7 - Montana (27)

Easily Cruz country. Has won and will win all states surrounding it.

Jun 7 – South Dakota (25)

Again, easily Cruz country.  Has won states that mirror South Dakota voter demographics.

TRUMP WILL WIN:
May 10 – West Virginia (34)

Trump will easily win WV, but the delegate allotment is proportional.  Cruz could pick off a few delegates.
Jun 7 – New Jersey (51)

If there was a state that Trump will definitely win next to West Virginia, it’s here in New Jersey. But Trump will not be able to clinch the nomination just winning in NJ and WV.

TOSS UPS:

May 17 - Oregon (28)

While Cruz agreed to not campaign in Oregon so Kasich would have a shot, it’s not completely clear if Cruz or Kasich could win this, especially as voters submit their ballot via mail.  The delegate allotment is minimal and is not do-or-die for Cruz, but he could do well as Oregon neighbors friendly Idaho and potentially Washington state.
Jun 7 – New Mexico (43)

Like Oregon, Cruz will not be actively campaigning in NM either.  There have been polls done here since February, according to RealClearPolitics, but it does neighbor Cruz-friendly Texas.  If Cruz were to lose here, it would still be possible for Trump not to get to 1,237, but it will make California even more important.
Jun 7 - California (172)

Without a doubt, everything will come down to California. If this is the state that needs to stop Trump, the entire Republican/Conservative political machine will throw everything at this state to make sure Cruz wins. Remember, this state also has a proportional allotment of delegates.

On the chance that Trump wins the majority of votes statewide, the real battles are really for the congressional district delegates; it almost makes this 53 mini primaries.  If it’s really a nail-biter, Cruz and Kasich will need to either form an alliance to work together here, or Kasich needs to sit this one out.

While the so-called prognosticators in every mainstream and cable news entity have gotten this entire election wrong so far, I would not place all my bets on the media predicting the last 10 states correctly.

If Cruz wins all the states in the MUST WIN category, does well in Oregon and New Mexico, forces will help Cruz take down Trump in CA, especially if he is seen as the only one who can stop Trump. It is still mathematically possible to deny Trump the 1,237 delegates needed.

Now exhale!

[Debbie Shafer]

Note, Trump wins where there is open primaries because he gets all the Democrat cross overs.