Inflation in Germany DR. MARKUS KRALL: THE SLOW-MOTION RECORDING OF A KETCHUP BO

[Ulli]

I used Yandex Translator

DR. MARKUS KRALL: THE SLOW-MOTION RECORDING OF A KETCHUP BOTTLE.
Inflation bottle is like a ketchup. Shake it and nothing comes out. Then shake it fixed and nothing comes out. Then you shake it with all the force and everything comes out at once. The mess is perfect.

The economic Equivalent of the Shaking of the bottle is the Printing of money. You can print it for a while and nothing happens. She then leads to the mistaken belief that they could do with impunity simply always more. To prove to your buddies at the Central Bank, that you don't have to be afraid, hold the bottle when shaken, perhaps, still grinning over the head. What should happen?

Love a Central banker, you can do everything. You can also make a Selfie with the inflation ketchup bottle on the social media and show us how you shake it, the stronger. But don't be surprised, then, please, when you look soon as you escaped from the 70s trash movie "attack of the killer tomatoes".

SLOW MOTION RECORDING OF THE INFLATION
The slow-motion recording of Inflation shows that you have overdone it a long time ago. All the tomato sauce just comes in and follows the pattern, not only by me – in the public discussion of the question, "what is Inflation and how it unfolds?" was described. She eats from the edges of the asset inflation on raw materials and durable goods in the real economy. This process is in full swing. The white for a few months, anyone who has anything to do with the construction industry. But here is something that is more than just "anecdotes of evidence comes now". It is not a proper inflation statistics, but it is halfway there. It is a collection of "anecdotes" with such density that one can speak of a sample, which allows us to formulate reasonable hypotheses about the Genesis of the resulting Inflation.

SURVEY ON TWITTER & FACEBOOK
On Twitter and Facebook, I have a question on my on two media together nearly 45,000 Followers addressed with the following formulation: "more and more industries are exploding report at the end of prices of raw materials, shortage of Material, extremely long times and rationing in the purchase of means of production, raw materials, etc., If it's you, write me here! What Industry? Which goods are scarce? Is rationed or allocated? How did you get these goods? How much prices rise? How long are the delivery times? This leads to short-time working or even closing?“

ALL 650 REPLY SHORTLY
The reaction was swift and overwhelming. In just three days, I received more than 650 responses of entrepreneurs, customers, managers, craftsmen and builders. The image was heterogeneous in the sense that the price growth rates and delivery times showed a certain degree of spread, however, the direction was clear. On the Basis of 230 responses on Twitter, I made a first quantitative evaluation. It gives a picture of what is happening in the sectors of construction, electrical, electronics, automotive industry, plastic industry, food, logistics, packaging, mechanical engineering and pharmaceuticals.

SHOCK WAVE-CORONA-POLICY
The main fault of the production process is, apparently, from the global and local logistics, where price increases of between 100% and 1500% is reported. This applies in particular to the Container and freight rates for the Import, but also truck-freight forwarding prices. The price increase is associated with a shortage of availability, uncertain times, and congestion effects at the end of storage. The Disruption of supply chains has clearly shaken the global fine and delicately balanced System of "just-in-time" Disposition thoroughly. Risk buffer and are not available, the shock wave of the Corona-policy planted unfiltered through the production and supply chains through.

The second strongest effects are reported from the industry, like no other of exactly these global supply chains is dependent, namely the electronics industry. Here is reported price increases of between 12% (micro-chips) to 1000% (micro-controller), the average reported price increases of 200%. Focus on end products graphic cards (100%), Laptops with special applications (50%) and membrane keyboards (50%). The target delivery times of the manufacturers are increased for this demand is strong, is reported a bandwidth of 8 weeks (EC-reading devices) up to 68 weeks for the micro-controller and a year, for measuring devices in the specialty.

In the construction industry, the effects are observed already for a few months and lead to short-time work, supply problems, and a lack of Predictability of construction projects. Steel reported price increases of up to 500% for resins and solvents, 70% to 170% for Drywall, door frames, cement and stones, 100% for concrete, 65% for steel grating, 100% for silicone injection molding, 100% for cables and wires, wood, standard parts and various chemicals, 200% for a parquet floor. The delivery times are increased to up to one year (OSB plates and natural stone), many of the products are not available. It is reported by a manufacturer of prefabricated houses that offers its customers the 20,000 euros for the cancellation of the contract of sale, because it can deliver more cost-covering.

In the case of motor vehicle and transport equipment, the price increases of each of the component Suppliers, according to the survey, between 50% (plastics) and 100% (tyres of certain products and sizes). More problematic is the price not, however, appear to be increases, not arrived yet on a broad Front, but the supply bottlenecks and failures. Delivery time of 6 months and rationing of semiconductors has already led to significant production losses, which pushes up prices for New and used cars. For new cars, this is not a delay visible, because the price increase at the beginning is nominal, but only in the absence of the discounts.

In the case of food, the area has in the official inflation statistics, special attention to the heterogeneity of the image and the number of responses is small. Individual outliers are already unmistakable: tea and coffee hit in shopping with 20% beech, Argentine beef steaks are allegedly 100% up to 200% more expensive than a year ago. What is striking is the delivery times are for food at 8 weeks is very high.

THE CONCENTRATION OF THE EFFECT ON IMPORT GOODS
The effects of focus on import goods. In the case of food, we are likely to see effects in the width if the 30% to 200% increase in the cost of packaging materials beat the pricing of the super markets.

From the outside to the inside. This is the way that the depreciation of money from the financial - eats in the real economy. The ECB, meanwhile, the "inflation target above 2%," announces to keep interest rates on years of negative and printing money like there is no Tomorrow. Still, these Figures are not without a large Research effort is resilient, but the response to the survey shows that Where there is smoke, there is fire!

If in this small survey condensed anecdotal evidence will be summarized to anywhere significant statistics with full robust significance values, it is against taxes long too late. It probably is now. The ECB is living in Lala-Land. And Lala-Land is soon to be burned to the ground. You can find the answers to my Twitter poll for @markus_krall.

ALSO TELL YOUR STORY
You want to know what does this mean for you? We want to know what that means for you. Also you can write us your experiences. We will work on the issue. Below you will find the first indications of what the statistics into account:

What sector is affected?
Which goods are scarce?
Is rationed or allocated?
Where are the goods?
How much the price increase?
How long are the delivery times?
It has already led to short-time working or closure?

https://www.degussa-goldhandel.de/gold-geld-leben-der-ketchup-effekt-und-seine-auswirkungen/