Author Topic: Expert: Golan Will Become Crowded Terror Base  (Read 4780 times)

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Offline דוד בן זאב אריה

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Expert: Golan Will Become Crowded Terror Base
« on: May 27, 2008, 03:48:38 PM »
Expert: Golan Will Become Crowded Terror Base
 
by Hillel Fendel


(IsraelNN.com) Arab affairs expert Dr. Guy Bechor of the Interdisciplinary Center in Herzliya estimates that a "Golan for peace" deal will net Israel, in the long run, anything but peace.

Bechor, who authors a Hebrew-language newsblog on Israel and the Middle East, wrote an article for Ynetnews in which he predicts that no matter what Syrian Dictator Bashar Assad promises, he is likely to be toppled by radical Moslem forces - leaving northern Israel vulnerable to the terrorists on the plateau above.

Bechor predicts that an Israeli withdrawal from the Golan would be followed by a three-stage process:

Stage I
"About a million Syrian residents will be settled in the Golan immediately.... A presidential decree has already been issued [by Bashar Assad] announcing that any Syrian resident who moves to the Golan will receive a government allowance... This will enable [Assad] to realize his dream with no interruptions: establishing a 'resistance' against Israel in the Golan Heights. Officially, Assad will argue that he has no connection to the terror attacks that would be directed at the Galilee region and northern Israel from the Golan; yet in practice, Syrian intelligence officers will do as they please vis-a-vis northern Israel, [as] they already did in northern Lebanon."

Stage II
Bechor argues that despite the friendly relations between Lebanon and Syria, Syria supports subversive activity against the Lebanese government: "Why wouldn’t the Syrians do the same in the Golan? Would a peace deal with Israel stop them? With Lebanon they have not only peace, but even an official relationship of fraternity and friendship."

Stage III
"Assad’s minority Alawite regime will be toppled," for the "peace deal will in fact serve to precipitate his downfall (and for that reason, Bashar won’t be pursuing real peace with Israel.) His regime has no legitimacy in Syria as it is, particularly when it comes to the Muslim Brothers, whose power keeps growing."

Once this happens, "the Golan Heights will turn into the radical spearhead against Israel, and not only from Syria: People will be coming from Iran, Afghanistan and elsewhere. Terrorism will be two-pronged both from the Golan and from Lebanon. Life in the north will turn into an unbearable nightmare, yet the situation will be irreversible..."

Bechor concludes that Israel's agreements in the past and future with Egypt, Jordan and the Palestinian Authority are either reversible or did not cost much. "But with Syria, the situation will be different: From being an empty buffer zone, the Golan Heights will turn into a crowded anti-Israel region for generations to come. From being a strategic asset to Israel, the Golan will turn into a burden on top of the other regional efforts to eliminate Israel. Our future generations will not forgive anyone who would do that." 

David Ben Ze'ev Aryeh


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Re: Expert: Golan Will Become Crowded Terror Base
« Reply #1 on: August 17, 2008, 06:49:51 PM »
Golan does not belong to Arab Muslim Nazi Syria. It belongs to the proud patriotic Israelis!!! 
Dan - Stay calm and be brave in order to judge correctly and make the right decision

Offline Ulli

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Re: Expert: Golan Will Become Crowded Terror Base
« Reply #2 on: August 17, 2008, 07:12:16 PM »
Yes I agree.

To give the Golan away is suicide policy. Assads regime is unable to garantee anything. Beside from the fact, that the Golan doesn't belong to the Muzzies is Dr. Guy Bechor 100% right. But I don't think you have to be an expert on Arab affairs to predict this things. Common sense is enough for it.  :(
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Offline Fergus

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Re: Expert: Golan Will Become Crowded Terror Base
« Reply #3 on: February 07, 2009, 07:04:13 PM »
The primary duty of any state is the defence of its citizens. In extremis, this means not suffering military defeat. One of the decisive factors in any military conflict is geography. In World War II (and in the centuries before that) Poland was easily invaded and partitioned because of its lack of defensible borders, the US was able to build a massive military force from scratch because of the vast oceans separating the US from Germany and Japan, and Britain was not invaded in 1940 because of the existence of the English Channel and the inability of the German Navy to gain command of the sea from the Royal Navy (the same problem Napoleon had). The British air/sea base of Malta was instrumental in interdicting Axis supplies to North Africa, and, ultimately in helping ensure the defeat of Rommel. I could go on multiplying examples, but I think the idea is clear.

Pre-1967 Israel was a tiny and vulnerable enclave in a totally hostile environment. I remember seeing on television the Syrians shelling Northern Israel from the Golan Heights (before Israel's 1967 'aggression'!), which were a fantastic military asset. The Jordanians (no military lightweights, as their performance in 1948 had shown) were only a few miles from the sea. The Egyptians were on the southern border, and controlled the sea routes on either side of the Suez Canal. The phenomenal victory that Israel won in just six days left that country with rational and defensible borders for the first time in its modern history. The Sinai Peninsula was an excellent buffer zone against Egypt, the Jordan River protected the eastern flank and the Golan had been taken from Syria.

Any sensible state facing annihilation from sworn and irreconcilable enemies would have held those frontiers. It would also have expelled the hostile population from the 'West Bank' and Gaza, and especially from Jerusalem, avoiding the constant threat of unrest and terrorism. The opprobrium heaped on Israel from the Muslim and Arab states, the liberals in the West and the usual suspects of anti-Semitism would not have been any worse than it was. In any event, even after the failure of intelligence (and the pressure from the USA not to launch a pre-emptive war, which would again have saved Israel much grief, as it had done in 1967) led to the Yom Kippur attacks, and it was only by the courage of soldiers such as Zvika Greengold, the badly-hit IAF and the help of the Almighty that the Syrian tanks did not burst through into the plains of Israel. In Sinai it also took hard fighting and severe casualties to reverse the brilliantly-planned and well-executed Egyptian attack across the Canal.

So what do the Israeli governments do? Under constant US pressure, they return the Sinai to the military dictatorship of Anwar Sadat in return for a peace treaty and recognition (Ah, but what if the Muslim Brotherhood takes over from Mubarak or his successor?) They withdraw unilaterally from Gaza and destroy their own people's settlements in the 'occupied territories'. Any rational independent onlooker would ask 'Have these people a death wish?'

You will notice I have confined myself to practical defensive questions. It is not wise to put any trust in agreements with other governments. Leaving aside the possibility of bad faith, governments come and go. In my lifetime, King Farouk was replaced by Nasser and the Bath Party, King Faisal in Iraq was viciously assassinated and some rather nasty people took over, the pro-western Libyan monarchy was overthrown, the Shah was given a one-way ticket out of Iran, and the Hashemite Jordanian royal family has been very close to the precipice more than once. Assad in Syria probably sleeps with a pistol in each hand.  In Turkey, we have seen the strains between Ataturk’s secular state and an Islamist revival.

I mentioned Kissinger pressuring Golda Meir not to attack first. We have seen US Presidents from Carter onwards demanding Israel concede land for 'peace'. The US has its own interests, and its dependence on Arab oil has seen it supporting the evil Wahabist regime in Saudi Arabia, even though that regime is fostering the growth of militant Islam all over the world. Yes, it is useful to have an ally who supplies a great deal of military hardware, but what happens if that ally changes its mind or is coerced into withdrawing support? Or if it suffers such economic catastrophe that it is no longer able to help?

Please forgive the length of this post. It sums up as: politics are transient, geography is permanent. Don't give up the Golan and don't bet the farm on the help of others.

'From the morning watch, even until night, let Israel hope in the Lord'

Offline Spectator

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Re: Expert: Golan Will Become Crowded Terror Base
« Reply #4 on: February 08, 2009, 02:39:14 AM »
Absolutely correct, Fergus! I wish Israeli government would have the same view as yours.
Do not put your trust in princes, nor in a son of man, in whom there is no help (Psalms 146:3)

Offline Fergus

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Re: Expert: Golan Will Become Crowded Terror Base
« Reply #5 on: February 08, 2009, 05:25:51 AM »
Spectator, that is what I have difficulty understanding. I do understand that religious Jews would not give up any of the Land of Israel, because it was a divine gift. I would have thought that even secular Jews would see the purely military and geographical case for ensuring the survival of the State of Israel and the Israeli people.

Secular Jews seem to me to be worshipping the 'golden calf' of liberalism and materialism (and you know the fate of Aaron and his gang in Exodus 32). These 'Peace Now' characters must be certifiably insane or wilfully blind. After what happened when the Israeli government unilaterally withdrew from Southern Lebanon and Gaza ... It puts you in mind of Dr Johnson's dictum about a man with a shrew of a wife who married again after her death - 'a triumph of hope over experience'.

Offline Spectator

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Re: Expert: Golan Will Become Crowded Terror Base
« Reply #6 on: February 08, 2009, 06:13:45 AM »
Spectator, that is what I have difficulty understanding. I do understand that religious Jews would not give up any of the Land of Israel, because it was a divine gift. I would have thought that even secular Jews would see the purely military and geographical case for ensuring the survival of the State of Israel and the Israeli people.

Secular Jews seem to me to be worshipping the 'golden calf' of liberalism and materialism (and you know the fate of Aaron and his gang in Exodus 32). These 'Peace Now' characters must be certifiably insane or wilfully blind. After what happened when the Israeli government unilaterally withdrew from Southern Lebanon and Gaza ... It puts you in mind of Dr Johnson's dictum about a man with a shrew of a wife who married again after her death - 'a triumph of hope over experience'.

Secular leftist Jews believe that their way is the best to ensure the survival of the State of Israel. They believe that when the Palestinians have a state in the Judea & Samaria (aka "West Bank") and Gaza, they will be satisfied and their conflict with the Jews will be over. This is not only the view of ultraleft pro-Arab "Peace Now", but also of larger parties of Avoda and Kadima.

Their mistake is incorrect understanding of the Palestinian aspirations. Their goal is not to have their own state but to destroy the Jewish one. In this issue there is no differnce between PLO/Fatah and Hamas.

What is Dr Johnson's dictum ?
Do not put your trust in princes, nor in a son of man, in whom there is no help (Psalms 146:3)

Offline Fergus

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Re: Expert: Golan Will Become Crowded Terror Base
« Reply #7 on: February 08, 2009, 07:28:30 AM »
Thanks, Spectator.

Dr Johnson said a second marriage after an unhappy one was "a triumph of hope over experience".