If Clinton Wins in Landslide, It Will Be Due to Hatred of Trump
If Donald Trump can’t even beat Hillary Clinton, then he’s just not electable… at all.
If Hillary Clinton wins the presidential election in a landslide, taking the House and Senate with her for Democrats, it won’t be because she’s beloved like President Obama.
It will be because so many people dislike Donald Trump.
A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released Monday shows Trump down 11 points in a four-way match up with third-party candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein. He’s down 14 points in a head-to-head matchup with Clinton.
It’s a bad poll, there’s no denying that. It was conducted over the weekend when a decade-old video of Trump bragging about grabbing women was released but before the GOP nominee’s improved performance in the second debate. It might simply show how that particular event affected people at the time, while the debate might tighten those numbers.
The poll also found that Clinton is still more disliked than liked, although the gap is worse for Trump. Forty percent of those surveyed had a somewhat or very positive view of Clinton, compared to 50 percent who had a negative view. To break that down, 22 percent had a “very positive” view of Clinton and 37 percent had a “very negative” view.
For Trump, 29 percent had a somewhat or very positive view of the candidate, compared to 63 percent with a somewhat or very negative view. Just 16 percent had a “very positive” view while a whopping 52 percent had a “very negative” view.
Again, it’s a bad poll, but it isn’t quite the nail-in-the-coffin it’s being made out to be. For one thing, it was a poll of fewer than 500 registered voters, a group that is a less accurate gauge of Election Day results than likely voters (though the gap between Clinton and Trump for the presidency was about the same for registered and likely voters). Also, the poll had a D+7 tilt and a margin of error of plus or minus 4.38 percentage points. An old editor of mine told me not to take any poll seriously with a margin of error above 3 points.
Still, this poll is driving the current narrative that Trump’s campaign is in freefall. That obviously helps Clinton, but it doesn’t make her more likable, just less awful. If she does win in November, it won’t be because people are excited to vote for the first woman president, or because she’s a beloved politician with fresh, exciting ideas. No, it will be because Trump has become so unpalatable that, by comparison, she is acceptable.
