CNSNews.com) - Republican and Democratic pollsters on Tuesday expressed optimism that American voters are ready to elect a minority president and said it would be the candidate's policies, not minority status, which wins or loses the 2008 election.
The likely candidate pool for the 2008 nominations includes Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.), who is black, Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.), a woman, and Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R), a Mormon.
"I think for sure there are many reasons why these specific candidates may not be elected, but it won't be because they're a woman or because they're African-American," Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg said during a discussion on elections at Northern Virginia Community College outside Washington, D.C.
Republican pollster Neil Newhouse agreed, pointing to the Massachusetts governor's race as an example.
"I didn't think Massachusetts was ready for a liberal African-American governor," Newhouse said. Nonetheless, the liberal African-American candidate, Deval Patrick, beat Republican Lt. Gov. Kerry Healy, who is white, by 21 percentage points.
"Deval Patrick was a stunning Democratic candidate who did a phenomenal job," Newhouse said. "It was very clear that voters in Massachusetts were ready for a liberal African-American."
"Whether it's Hillary or not, I don't know," Newhouse said, "but I don't think there's any problem with a woman or an African American or a Mormon."
Dave Sackett, another Republican pollster, said that in the past, candidates in races that included female contenders had to pay special attention to their image.
He said men running against women had to be careful how they attacked their opponent, whereas women running against men had to prove they were tough enough to make it in the sometimes cut-throat political climate.
"Those things are almost entirely blurred," Sackett said of modern elections. "I don't think people have any gender differences right now and they don't look at woman candidates any differently than they do with men."
But one Democratic pollster participating in the discussion was hesitant to say that minority victories in federal legislative elections and in governor's races would necessarily translate to victories in presidential campaigns.
"People treat the presidency so differently than they treat every other office in terms of voting," Harrison Hickman said, adding that women have had an easier time winning legislative seats.
When it comes to the presidency, he said, "I don't think we'll really know until we have a real world test."
Hickman said there was a trend of victorious female candidates following an unsuccessful female candidate.
"In almost every case where a woman has been elected governor," Hickman said, "there has been another woman who has run for governor and failed before her as sort of a trailblazer phenomenon."
When it came to the contest for the presidency, he predicted, "the first woman would likely fail and the second woman would probably succeed."
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