If there is a collision between China and Russia, who should we support?

[Spectator]

Why the restless Chinese are warming to Russia's frozen east?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/5845646/Why-the-restless-Chinese-are-warming-to-Russias-frozen-east.html

The endless silver birch forests of the Russian Far East might appear so desolate and windswept that no one could possibly be interested in them. Yet the vast swath of territory between Lake Baikal and Vladivostok may become a new theatre of confrontation between Russia and China in the decades ahead.

For now, the two giant neighbours have been thrust together by their shared suspicion of America and they cooperate as tactical allies, working in the United Nations Security Council to contain Washington's power. But this affinity is based on little more than having the same rival. The empty lands of the Russian Far East, far closer to Beijing than Moscow, contain major sources of tension between the two powers.

This is where the headlong decline of Russia's population is having its most dramatic impact. Year by year, a region that was always largely devoid of human beings is remorselessly losing its last inhabitants.

Only 6.7 million people live in the Far East region, far less than the population of Greater London, and 14 per cent fewer than in the late 1980s. They are scattered across a homeland so vast that it almost defies comprehension. Add together Britain, France and Germany and then multiply their combined areas by five and they would still be smaller than the Russian Far East.

Moreover, more than a third of the area's last inhabitants are concentrated in only nine towns. The vast tracts between these isolated population centres are empty. And even in the towns, the population is falling: the Russian Far East is forecast to have only 4.5 million people by 2015.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the border, the picture could scarcely be more different. Of China's total population of 1.3 billion, at least 100 million inhabit the three provinces of Manchuria, directly adjacent to Russia. This means that Manchuria already has a population density 62 times greater than the Russian Far East. This vast disparity between the neighbours, unmatched anywhere else in the world, can only grow in the years ahead. This would probably create tension even without another crucial factor.

China has an insatiable appetite for the world's natural resources to sustain an economic boom that powers ahead despite the global downturn. Official figures released yesterday showed that China's economy managed an annual growth rate of 7.9 per cent in the second quarter of this year.

The quest for raw materials is the central goal of the country's foreign policy. And virtually every natural resource imaginable is found just over the border. Here, beneath steppe and tundra, are large reserves of natural gas, oil, diamonds and gold, while millions of square miles of birch and pine provide immense supplies of timber. All this amounts to an astonishing combination: a densely packed country trying to keep its economy roaring ahead by laying its hands on natural resources, living alongside a largely empty region with huge mineral wealth and fewer inhabitants year on year. Russia and China might operate a tactical alliance, but there is already tension between them over the Far East. Moscow is wary of large numbers of Chinese settlers moving into this region, bringing timber and mining companies in their wake.

After the Soviet Union's collapse in 1991, Moscow lost much of its control over Russia's most remote regions. The great achievement of Vladimir Putin, now the prime minister, was to assert the Kremlin's authority once again by rebuilding the power of the state.

But will this be sustainable in the Far East? There is no serious prospect of China invading the empty lands to the north or formally seeking to annex them. Instead, a steady flow of Chinese migrants and investment into the region might achieve this outcome by stealth. Russia faces the prospect of losing control by inches over the eastern third of the country.

Tension between the two powers in this part of the world is not new. Territorial wrangles in the Far East ranked among the prime causes of the Sino-Soviet split during the Cold War. In the late 1960s, frontier disputes spilled over into military clashes that claimed hundreds of lives. At one point, the confrontation became so heated that Leonid Brezhnev considered a pre-emptive nuclear strike against China and sounded out President Nixon's administration in Washington to see whether this option would be tolerated. America replied with an emphatic "no" and the Nixon administration skilfully exploited the opportunity created by Sino-Soviet rivalry.

America's opening to China and the restoration of diplomatic ties in 1972, combined with détente with the Soviet Union and the first arms control treaty, were the outcomes. Because they were at loggerheads with each other, China and the Soviet Union each calculated that they needed better relations with America.

Something similar could happen in the decades ahead. If Russia begins losing control over the Far East to a resurgent China, the Kremlin will have to seek America's help. While Mr Putin's driving purpose is to show that Russia has the strength to stand alone, in the end America may be an indispensable ally to contain a rising China. Those steadily emptying forests in the Far East explain why.

[Spectator]

How can the possible confrontation between the two influence on Israel, US, and other countries?

[Yochai]

Hope that they both destroy each other.

If this happened, it would be best for the U.S. to catch both of them off-guard and regain undisputed superpower status.

[Spectator]

Hope that they both destroy each other.

If this happened, it would be best for the U.S. to catch both of them off-guard and regain undisputed superpower status.

It would be indeed great outcome for the US but I don't think they'll destroy each other. They both are not as stupid as Muslims and will know where to stop.

[Zelhar]

There is not going to be a confrontation similar to the one in the 1970s. Russia is in some sense, the Canada of China. But without a doubt, it would be wise for Russia to maintain good relations with China's rivals as well.

I foresee in the future, there will be a trade war because of the Chinese refusal to open their market for fair competition. But Russia will take a minor part because it is an exporter of raw materials arms and technology, and so it is not affected by the Chinese policies.

[Spectator]

Russia is in some sense, the Canada of China

It is true in some sense, if you mean that China needs Russian natural resources, and Russia needs vast Chinese market to sell them.

But unlike Canada, Russia has ambitions of superpower, and will never agree to be just a reosource supplier.

On the other hand, vast Russian Far East region, which borders China, is being depopulated, while there is an influx of the Chinese there (meanwhile mainly as unqualified workers). The author of the article supposes, that while officially remaining under Russian souvereignity, the Far East may fall under the Chinese control. And this may spark much more serious conflict than took place in 1970-s.

[Zelhar]

If Russia was really a federated democracy, then there would be a danger of Chinese immigrants taking over Russian provinces. But as it is now, a centralist tyranny, this cannot happen. If the Chinese just made a tweet about increased autonomy, they would be rounded up and shipped to back to China.

In the longer run it is harder to tell what will happen. For example, I don't think the Asians in Hawaii will demand to unite with Japan. I don't see the Chinese in HK dying to unite with China either. There are sizable Chinese minority in many east Asian countries and I have never heard of anything like an insurrection, demands for autonomy or anything like that. Generally speaking, the Chinese immigrant is concerned with business and less with politics.

[Dr. Dan]

IF neither were an option, I think I would choose the Chinese...just because I have never heard of any pogrom caused by them. 

[Spectator]

IF neither were an option, I think I would choose the Chinese...just because I have never heard of any pogrom caused by them. 

Neither did I. This is indeed a good argument. On the other hand, Chinese Jewish community is rather new and tiny to attract any attention of the Chinese, whereas millions of Jews lived in Russia for several centuries. So we may say that the Chinese had much less opportunities to harm the Jews.

With regard to Israel, both Russia and China always support anti-Israeli resolutions in UN.

[Saxon Marauder]

I'd have to say Chinese, simply because I've investigated the country in some depth and have come to have far more respect for the Chinese, as they once were. I'll just give a few, brief reasons below.

Legendarily, the Jews reached China via ancient Iran during the Han dynasty more than 2,000 years ago. The Chinese held them in high regard and compared their religion to their own native tradition of heaven worship- both the Gd of the Jews and the Lord in Heaven worshipped by the Chinese was unanthropomorphic and the creator of the moral order of the world. Despite also being idol worshippers, the earliest strains of Chinese religion, about 4,000 years ago, around the time of Abraham, exhibit strong tendencies towards monotheism. Many of the early Chinese writings are very similar to Jewish writings, for example, translated into English from the Shih Ching, a book of Chinese poetry from about 3,000 years ago:

Mighty is Gd on high,

Ruler of His people below;

Swift and terrible is Gd on high,

His mandate has many statutes.

Heaven gives birth to the multitudes of the people,

But its mandate cannot be counted upon.

To begin well is common;

To end well is rare indeed.

 

King Wen said, "Come!

Come, you Yin and Shang!

Why these violent men?

Why these slaughterers?

Why are they in office? Why are they in power?

Heaven has sent down to you an arrogant spirit;

What you exalt is violence!"

 

King Wen said, "Come!

Come, you Yin and Shang,

And hold fast to what is seemly and fitting;

Your violence leads to much resentment.

You support slanders and also,

To thieves and bandits you give entry,

Who curse, who use evil imprecations,

Without limit or end."

 

King Wen said, "Come!

Come you Yin and Shang!

You rage and seethe in Chung Kuo

You count the heaping up of resentment as inward power;

You do not make bright your power,

So that none backs you, none is at your side.

No, your merit does not shine bright,

So that none cleaves to you nor comes to you."

 

King Wen said, "Come!

Come you Yin and Shang!

Heaven did not flush you with wine.

Not good are the ways you follow;

Most disorderly are your manners.

Not heeding whether it is dawn or dusk

You shout and scream,

Turning Day into night."

 

King Wen said, "Come!

Come you Yin and Shang!

You are like grasshoppers, like cicadas,

Like frizzling water, like boiling soup;

Little and great you draw near to ruin.

Men long to walk in right ways,

But you rage in the Middle Kingdom,

And as far as the land of Kuei.

 

King Wen said, "Come!
+
Come you Yin and Shang!

It is not that Gd on high did not bless you;

It is that Yin does not follow the old ways.

Even if you have no old men ripe in judgment,

At least you have your statutes and laws.

Why is it that you do not hear,

But upset the Mandate of Heaven?

 

King Wen said, "Come!

Come, you Yin and Shang!

There is a saying among men:

'When a towering tree crashes,

The branches and leaves are still unharmed;

It is the trunk that first decays.'

A mirror for Yin is not far off;

It is the times of the Lord of the Xia."

http://web.cn.edu/kwheeler/chinese_poetry_highheaven.html

King Wen lived about the time of King David and, like his Israelite counterpart, he was noteworthy for his piety and virtue. Gd on high also spoke to him in dreams, something that is also very Biblical in character. Shang was an oppressive country that was destroyed by King Wen's country, Zhou; Yin is merely another name for Shang.

Modern-day China is, potentially, capable of great things- if it ever sheds communism. Russia I don't have a lot of respect for at all.

[Lewinsky Stinks, Dr. Brennan Rocks]

Hard to say but I think the Chinese as a people are somewhat less evil. Many Russians are full of "macho" anti-US nationalism, visions of imperialistic grandeur, and anti-Semitism. Most Chinese just want to be fat, happy consumers like Westerners.

[Serbian Canadian]

Hard to say but I think the Chinese as a people are somewhat less evil. Many Russians are full of "macho" anti-US nationalism, visions of imperialistic grandeur, and anti-Semitism. Most Chinese just want to be fat, happy consumers like Westerners.

Nooooo! What happened with SerbAvenger? 

[t_h_j]

neither, getting involved in a conflict between 2 countries armed with nukes is asking for trouble

[Saxon Marauder]

neither, getting involved in a conflict between 2 countries armed with nukes is asking for trouble

I agree, even though I've got a lot of respect for the Chinese. It's just the current government of China that I dislike.

[Historical Truth]

None. We should let them kill off large amounts of each others populations and ruin their economies.

[angryChineseKahanist]

Jews were never put in camps in China.
Jews have been scattered all over China including Shanghai and HK from western Chinese deserts.
Jews still live there in their own communities.
They have never been put on trains to be deloused.

[Saxon Marauder]

Agrees very strongly with the previous post.

[ProudAndZionist]

Neither. But China is a bit better than Russia.

[דוד בן זאב אריה]

Let them destoy each other

[TheCoon]

While the Chinese communists are evil, the Chinese people are generally hard-working and have no anti-Semitic tendencies. Chinese immigrants also tend to be good immigrants that don't cause trouble. I'm sorry to say but the Russians are an evil people whose entire culture is based off criminality. Their country is run by criminals and thugs and if you do business there you need to bring a gun to keep from getting robbed. They are noisy and arrogant as well. I'd rather live next to arabs than russians.

[Saxon Marauder]

Chinese values are grounded in Confucian ideals, which stress societal normalcy and tradition. That's a hard belief system to do away with, even if China is modernizing.

[Ze'ev]

From what I understand, the Chinese helped save many thousands of Eastern European Jews during the war years, while Russians were enacting Pogroms against them.

Many ended up in Shanghai. 

Read about Dr. Feng Shan Ho.

Of course there were plenty of Righteous among the Russians too I imagine, so it's hard to answer a question like this...there is good and bad everywhere, and state policy does not always coincide with the good of an individual.