Another Alabama Poll: Judge Roy Moore Leads Democrat Doug Jones by Six Points Again
A second Alabama special Senate election poll has Judge Roy Moore, the GOP nominee for the U.S. Senate, up six points over radical leftist Democrat Doug Jones ahead of the December 12 election, Breitbart News has learned exclusively.
Moore, at 43 percent, leads Jones—who lags down at 37 percent—by six points in a survey conducted between November 18 and November 21 by Atlantic Media and Research. The poll memo, provided exclusively to Breitbart News ahead of its public release by Atlantic’s Rick Shaftan, shows that the survey includes 623 likely voters and has a margin of error of 3.9 percent. It is the second poll in as many days to come out showing Moore with a six-point lead over Jones, as a survey out on Tuesday by WT&S Consulting also showed Moore leading Jones by six points.
This survey done by Atlantic Media and Research, per Shaftan’s memo, was “completed at the request of several major SuperPAC donors” and conducted with calls made by “live operators to both landlines and cellphones,” including 43 percent cell phones, something that increases accuracy.
Shaftan also weighted the data to what he calls a “worst case scenario” for Moore, where young and black voters turn out at historically high levels—something that would help Jones—and found that Moore still leads Jones in that scenario.
“Republican Roy Moore holds a 43-40 lead over Democrat Doug Jones under a ‘worst case’ weighting scenario where younger voters turn out at a level equal to that in the 2014 general election,” Shaftan wrote. “Moore led 43-37 in the raw data. Both candidates have high negatives. Roy Moore has a favorable rating of 31 percent and an unfavorable rating of 39 percent. But Jones is also a net negative, with just 32 percent viewing him favorably and 35 percent unfavorably.”
Shaftan adds, though, that Jones has hardly any pathway to victory. He is boxed off with a much worse position than Moore with just a few weeks until Election Day since no voter blocs seem to be trending his way.
“These numbers are a bigger problem for Jones than Moore, however,” Shaftan wrote. “While 88 percent of Jones unfavorables are voting for Moore, Jones is only able to win 75 percent of Moore unfavorables, while Moore still holds 8 percent of their votes. Moore also runs strongly with the 11 percent of voters who have a mixed opinion of him, winning 71 percent among those voters. By contrast, Jones gets only 43 percent of the 5 percent of voters with a mixed opinion of him. Those with a mixed opinion on Moore are essentially favorable. While many voters continue to look at Moore with an open mind, there is little room for Jones to grow outside of his Democratic Party base because few conservative voters are abandoning Moore in this very conservative state.”
Shaftan’s survey asked respondents for further details, too, on why they like or dislike the two candidates—and the real telling data is in why people dislike either Moore or Jones.
Jones’s support for full-term abortion—something he has tried unsuccessfully to walk back in recent days—kills him in Alabama.
“With Jones unfavorables, 37 percent mention his pro-abortion position, 33 percent dislike that he is a Democrat or Liberal, 7 percent say he is running a smear campaign against Moore, 6 percent dislike him personally, 6 percent dislike his views, 4 percent dislike that he is running against Moore, 2 percent call him a liar,” Shaftan wrote.
But in the case of Moore, the stories of evidence-free allegations of sexual misconduct—stories that have come under serious scrutiny in recent days as key details have crumbled—are much less profoundly hurting him than Jones’s full-term abortion support hurts him.