Trump drew record number of new people to vote against him
Donald Trump bragged about how he was going to bring a record number of voters to the polls. And he did. The only problem is, most of the newcomers came out to vote against him.
In the last presidential primary, there were 120,000 Republican attendees; in this one, there were 180,000, a 50% increase. Whom did all these new people vote for? About a third voted for Donald Trump, but two thirds came out to vote against him, for other candidates. There’s no denying that Trump drove the increase in numbers, but most of the increase was antagonistic, not out of support.
Trump has a record-setting 60% unfavorable rating among all Americans, the highest unfavorable rating of any politician. Many of the people he motivated to go to the polls were not just Republicans, but independents and Democrats who wanted to see him defeated. No other candidate, not even Hillary Clinton, has higher unfavorables than Donald Trump.
This has grave implications if Trump, with plurality of Republican voters, becomes the nominee. He will be so polarizing that he will draw more new people to come out against him than for him, as he did in Iowa. Part of it is his positions on the issues, but a lot of it is his immature and acerbic personality. Calling women bimbos is not presidential. Nor is calling voters stupid or losers, or talking about how he is so great that he could shoot people and not lose support.
Those “yuuuge” crowds that Trump draws at rallies? Most don’t end up voting for him. But his style is clearly energizing people to come out and vote against him.
Instead of talking about policy issues, Trump spends a lot of time in his stump speech attacking other candidates personally and talking about his wonderful standing in the polls. Like the Bloomberg poll showing him five points ahead of Cruz in Iowa, 28-23! Or the Quinnipiac Poll showing him seven points ahead in Iowa, 31-24, or the NBC poll showing him ahead 32-25!
But now that we know that his poll numbers are inflated, that there is no hidden Trump army uncaptured by polls, Trump supporters have to figure out if, with 60% unfavorables, their candidate has room to grow in a way that could lead to victory in the general election. Because right now, the best Trump can do is eke out a plurality from a field of three or four candidates. The others, with better favorable ratings, have room to grow, but Trump doesn’t, raising real concerns about whether he could win a general election contest.
